The PokerShark's Cardroom

Wow

2011-04-16T12:47:00.002-04:00

You know, this blog has been dormant an awfully long time, and no one may actually ever read this, but I have to say it.

We are in the midst of a major recession. People are trying to find jobs, keep their homes, and our federal government is continuing to turn their backs on a revenue stream in online poker, and now, not only are they doing this, but they are now PROSECUTING those involved in the game.

Don't you have anything better to do? Like fix the economy? Fix health care? Fix the stupid situation we're involved with in the Middle East?

No? Oh, ok, carry on then, go after PokerStars, Full Tilt, and Ultimate Bet.

Shame on you, Washington. Shame on you.

You should be embarrassed to call yourselves leaders. If you're so-called "leaders," and the people you're leading don't WANT what you're doing, then who are you leading? That's right, yourselves and your own interests.

I said it once, I'll say it again. Shame on you.

As One Door Closes...

2006-10-31T11:15:00.000-05:00

Another one opens. Last night, as I touched on in the forum, I played in a little $10 buy in home-game style tournament at a local Army-Navy Garrison. Just as I was having doubts about my game, and thinking things like "Can I actually play this game anymore?" I go and turn in one of the most dominating performances I've ever seen in a tournament.

The structure there is a little strange--I was invited by my father-in-law, who is a member, and they start with T100k in chips, with 500/1000 blinds, and the blinds double each half-hour. There is a 3 1/2 hour time limit, so with a 7 pm start time, whomever leads in chips at 10:30 is declared the winner.

These guys have no idea about me (or at least they didn't), so I figure I go in there and play a little weak. It's a rotate-dealer game, all NL Holdem, so I make a couple mistakes dealing cards, recognizing whose action it is (to make me appear fishy), and play starts in earnest. I play the first 5 hands I'm dealt (all junk) and watch the other players take pretty much everything to showdown. Bluffing won't work here (as you'll see later), and if you're seeing the flop, if you want to win, you're showing your hand down. No problem. I'll adjust.

I start to accumulate chips and I'm up to about T130K when the first victim falls. He's played every hand so far, so when he limps in, I'm not shocked. I am shocked to see KK though. I raise (with 1k/2k blinds) to 10k and am actually surprised when he calls. The flop comes Jack-high, and he insta-pushes the flop. Reading him for weak, and maybe a set, but having him covered (he had about 50k left at the start of the hand), I call and he shows 22. My kings hold up and he's the first guy out. The first of many to fall at my hands.

To make a long story short, I had 6 at my initial table. I knocked out 4 of the other 5 when they moved players to make another 6-man table. I knocked out two players in the same hand when they pushed into my turned nut-flush, and two hands later, I knocked out two more players when my 87s flopped the nut straight. We were down to 2 at my table, and there were 5 left at the other table, so when the other table made it to 6, we combined to the final table.

I had almost T1.3 million when I went to the final table, my nearest competitor had about T200k. I actually had to use CAFETERIA TRAYS to carry my chips over to the final table. I drew ooohs and aaahs when I brought my tray over, and drew "Omigod"s when the TD brought over the SECOND full tray.

The only bump in the road that I hit was about 4 hands into the final table when I raised to 100k (being a big stack is awesome) with ATs UTG and the remaining big stack pushed over me with his remaining 180k. I called him and he showed (I kid you not) T7o.

We flopped a ten, he rivered the seven, so I doubled him up and he had life. We got to three handed with me having a significant lead (about T1.2 million to about T400k each for the other two), and soon enough, the other two ended up all-in. The T7 guy above flopped a straight, then pushed into a turned flush, so I was heads up.

Heads up went back and forth, and we decided to chop (after I ran card-dead for almost the entire heads up period and gave up the chip lead). Not too shabby, eh?

They figured out just before the final table that I was a pro...Here's the conversation:

Guy 1: "Oh, look at this show-off. All these chips...(sheepishly, kidding around)"
Guy 2: "Yeah, he's been either real lucky, or he's a ringer. Isn't he Bob's son-in-law?"
Guy 3: "Yeah. He's either lucky, or a pro."
Me: "Hmm. Who told you that?"
Guy 2: "Oh shit."
Me: *smiling ear-to-ear*

Shockingly, I was invited back weekly.

More on the Legislation...

2006-09-30T11:45:00.000-04:00

In response to Richard (Quiet Lion) Brodie, who honors me by reading my humble blog (and he should read the REAL strategy stuff at the VPP Blog)...and who mentioned in a comment that Orwell's 1984 was written 56 years ago in 1948...

You know, Richard, I didn't even see that in the article. Had I proofread before I cut/paste this morning (note the time--baby was awake), I'd have spotted it in a heartbeat.

Doesn't change the fact that it scares the daylights out of me that our government seems to be chopping away at our liberties in the bogus interest of security and morals...It's seeming like this country is becoming rapidly no better than Orwell's world...

When I first saw the information about the legislation, I was angry. I admit. Now that I've had some time to digest the information, what the legislation means, and what is REALLY going on in this country, I'm infuriated. The large sites have all come to the US government and basically BEGGED to be regulated/taxed a la the UK, but the US government, on its high moral horse, refused. It's amusing, and here I really don't care who I piss off, but a forum that I participate in (not VPP) has several members--who are all outstanding people, by the way--that have very different political views to mine. They toss around words in the off-topic forums like "liberal" like it's roughly equivalent to "child molester." They defend the Republican right like it [as a unit] is their very own child, and defend the policies, because of varying reasons, some starting from 9/11, others starting from the conservative natures of their home states/upbringing.

My question to them is, what now my friends? Our government, led by true POLITICIANS (the real "dirty word" in this equation) have screwed us royally. The great joke of our nation is that we are a "representative democracy." Our politicians have no interest in representing us. They represent only those that line their pockets.

Here's to them learning in November that no matter how much money special interests funnel into their bank accounts, the REAL people that sign their paychecks are pretty pissed off, and we're tired of being repeatedly disappointed by those we elected to office, on empty promises.

...and that goes for BOTH sides of the aisle, boys.

You want to make a difference? Make your voice heard. Call your Senators? No. They couldn't (for the most part) give a damn less. Make your voice heard with your VOTE. Vote these miscreants out--NOW. Let's not make the same mistake twice.

Go, CJ!

2006-09-30T05:47:00.000-04:00

Couldn't have said it better myself. Go read CJ at Up for Poker!

The seedy side of politics is ugly. Always has been. Always will be. What today has ensured for me is that I will never, ever vote for Bill Frist for anything. In fact, I will campaign vigorously against him.

Rep. Jim Leach (R-IA) has a great deal of sway over the Republican caucus that will help launch a potential 2008 GOP nominee. Rep. Jim Leach wanted an internet gambling bill passed this session. Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) made this happen. Sen. Bill Frist will be running for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination. Quid pro quo is alive and well.

The Port Security Act is a long overdue piece of legislation that's designed to make this nation safer. It took Congress five years after 9/11 to finally make this happen, and in its haste to get it done before a mid-term elections, this Congress "didn't have time" to also protect our mass transit. They did, however, "have time" to add a new bill designed to curb internet gambling.

What this Congress is saying, then, is that it is more important to attack the scourge of online gaming than it is to make sure our buses and trains do not blow up. This is the Congress we elected. This is the Congress we have to get rid of.

By an overwhelming margin of 409-2, the House moments ago passed the Port Security Act. The Senate will soon vote where it will pass by a similar overwhelming margin.

On the bill itself, let's remember that it doesn't make onling gambling illegal. Online gambling is already illegal in most cases. Instead, it makes it much more difficult for existing online gambling sites to do business with Americans. It makes it harder for Americans to perform any financial transactions with online gaming sites.

However, just because it makes it harder doesn't mean it makes it impossible. I have a tremendous amount of faith in the international business community to outsmart this bill. After all, when we're ranking the collective intelligence of different groups, the U.S. Congress ranks just ahead of lobotomy patients and just behind slightly retarded monkeys.

Screw You, Senator Frist...and your Fat-Cat Friends, Too...

2006-09-30T05:45:00.000-04:00

Internet Gambling Bill passes Senate attached to Port Security Bill
From EOG.com
written September 29, 2006

Republican leaders reach a port security conference deal and the Internet Gambling bill also was included and passed tonight.

A major maritime security bill headed to the House floor tonight with a last-minute provision that cracked down on the $12 billion online gambling industry but without other controversial additions, such as court security measures and protections for phone companies that cooperate with government wiretapping, House Homeland Security Chairman King told CongressDaily today.

King earlier said the text of the conference report had been completed and would be brought to the House floor tonight for a vote. House and Senate Republican leaders were trying earlier today to attach last-minute measures to the bill. The only one that survived was from Senate Majority Leader Frist that would crack down on Internet gambling, King said.

Sadly, a bill to make 361 seaports safer from biological, chemical or nuclear attacks was passed tonight in the House and Senate. Democrats complained it shorted security for railroads and mass transit. Republicans successfully added a measure to restrict Internet gambling.

The bottom line is that the our government has now passed a bill making Internet gambling a crime for both the operator and any individual or institution involved in online gambling.

All that's left is for the President to sign it before it becomes law.

George Orwell had it right over 20 years ago when he wrote, "1984."

"Big Brother" is indeed watching you.

God bless America, land of the free?

I will be speaking with my vote in November. Now, we're pissed. All of us. To reiterate a London newspaper after the re-election of Bush in 2004, "How can 53 million people be so stupid?"

Busy Busy Busy...

2006-08-23T13:40:00.000-04:00

I hate making excuses. I feel like I'm making excuses about why I don't post to this blog as much (hardly at all) anymore. You know, the baby, blah blah blah, work has been hectic, blah blah blah, and all that crap.

I can tell you that I've put up some real monster posts on my VegasPokerPro blog, but that doesn't go real well, because even though I can tell you to go sign up for VPP and their forums, and that they give you free gifts just for signing up at a site and playing poker, it still means that I'm not posting here as much.

Here's what I can tell you: Having a 4-month old baby at home is rewarding, challenging, and exhausting all at the same time. I recommend it highly. I can also tell you that for whatever reason, I just can't seem to win at PokerStars anymore.

I played 5/10 LHE for the first time in months this morning and I proceeded to donk (?) off $120 in about 15 minutes. Mind you, this was a game that I crushed as recently as March of this year. Yeah, it was short term, yeah, it's just a session, but after dropping > $500 in very limited play at Stars, I think it's time for a bit of a break from my "home site." That's not to say that the games aren't soft. It's just to say that I've hit my own sort of mental block there, both in LHE and NLHE, so I'm going to finish clearing my bonus money there and take a little break from Stars. I'm making more than enough from other sites to keep me happy. It's just a mental block sort of thing...

With that being said, poker's going well, not great, just well. I go through spurts where I have supreme confidence in my game, and other times when I question whether or not I should even play. At those times, you'll find me basically teaching over at VegasPokerPro.com and their forums. I have my own forum over there, and I do quite a bit of NL and LHE hand analysis and PokerTracker stuff, and by teaching, I learn. It's a strange concept, but it's very true. Remember this: You can't teach what you don't know.

The other thing that has been taking up a lot of my time is Rockstar:Supernova. I'm obsessed with the show (being a rocker myself) and it takes up probably 3-4 hours a week of my previously spent poker time. I spend two hours watching and the other 1-2 hours arguing with my equally obsessed wife about who was good and who sucked.

Gratuitous picture of Alexis:

Isn't she adorable?

I am going to make a concerted effort to do better at posting here. Just remember though, don't be a stranger yourselves. Make sure you add my VPP blog to your bookmarks: http://vegaspokerpro.com/tiburon41 and stop by the forum. It's free, and you get free stuff!

Enjoy all, best of luck at the tables.

Looking Back on the WSOP, Ranting, and Je ne sais quoi...

2006-08-11T18:15:00.000-04:00

First of all, thanks to all the great news sources out there that helped bring the WSOP home to us--some better than others (thanks, Pauly)...

So another year is in the books, and another amateur has won the big one--and in the process, Jamie Gold has become the biggest winner in the history of the WSOP.

Here's my question--Will a "name" pro ever win the Main Event again? And what will be the effect of any proposed legislation to ban online poker in the US?

I'm sure you can go read from anyone's blog about the uproar created within the community over the stupid legislation proposed by Jim Goodlatte and Jon Kyl. It's made especially MORE stupid by the fact that Party Gaming and Pokerstars have done everything but crawl into Congress' chambers and beg to be taxed. Apparently, our government doesn't need money.

What's made this laughable escapade even funnier is that Washington State has actually taken a step "forward," and banned online poker, etc on a STATE level. They've extended it to the point that if I lived in Washington State, my WRITING about online gaming would be a crime punishable by massive fines and potentially jail time.

Is it that online gaming is bad, or is it that the current idiocy in charge of our goverment is looking for something, ANYTHING to take the mind of Generation X, Y, Y-not, and whomever else is out there off its ridiculous failures in other arenas? They figure that if they keep us busy fighting the "good fight" against legislation that is nearly impossible to enforce that we'll forget all about the other ways our government has failed us.

Hysterical.

Even funnier that in two news-organization polls, CNBC and the Wall Street Journal discovered that 91% and 85% of respondents FAVOR LEGAL and regulated online gaming. Who are these people representing? Oh, I'm sorry--I thought we were a REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY.

But I digress. Congratulations to Jamie Gold, former Hollywood talent agent who won the ME...even though he'll be remembered likely as the suckout king of '06...through some actually dominating play. It is my hope that he's brought into the poker community's spotlight as more of a Joe Hachem or Greg Raymer-type of champion, and not solely as a Varkonyi/Moneymaker-type (who are thought of either correctly or incorrectly as luckboxes). Congratulations also to the multitude of other new stars born at this year's WSOP.

Your Crack At Stardom

2006-07-19T22:15:00.000-04:00

Besides the fact that I, like other bloggers, have gotten cracks at writing for established poker sites (Go CC!), I've also decided that I want to take my shot at stardom and fame in the poker world.

The big thing is of course, the WSOP. I was offered a seat in a satellite to the main event, but considering situations at home (and short notice at work and not wanting to leave my absolutely adorable daughter), I passed up the seat and allowed a member of the site I write for to take my satellite seat. Of course, the sunuvabich wins his way in. I can't begrudge anything--I'm just kidding--and I wish him the absolute best, as I do for everyone else I know who won their way to the Main Event.

However, this will not be my path to glory. My path is a little different, and the person who took last year's path really didn't do as much as another player who made the Final Table did. My path to glory is going to be (with the wife's absolute blessing, nonetheless) the US Poker Championships (USPC) at my home casino, Trump's Taj Mahal in Atlantic City.

I'm currently searching for online sites to try and satellite my way in, and absent those opportunities, I'll be down there playing in the satellites and Super Sats into the ME (or even a preliminary event that I'll use winnings to buy in to the ME directly) from now until all hell breaks loose in September.

Wish me luck in my quest for glory.

Resolution

2006-07-08T10:49:00.000-04:00

Wow--where to begin?

First, I'd like to thank everyone who through comments, email, and just by being out there and posting great things on their own blogs were just fantastic in this whole thing.

We've reached a compromise. (Why do I feel like I'm negotiating some sort of labor deal? I almost feel like I should have a lawyer next to me as I type this...)

The wife was right in one way. I really did need to scale back my hours playing. This isn't my job--it's just a very lucrative, profitable hobby for me. I was playing like it was my job, and like someone was going to take it away from me.

I explained the whole money side to her-- it's really nice to be able to show a lot of positive returns in the equation--and she seems to understand more of where everything comes from. She understands that poker is very important to me, and I think she really understands now that I actually derive revenue from even just spewing my thoughts on this game across the internet.

I'm not playing as much as I did before, but I'm also spending REAL time with my beautiful daughter, time that if I decided to toss it away, I could just never get back. I'm not sacrificing family time for poker anymore, in the sense that I'm planning sessions, as if I were going to Atlantic City, and it's being blocked off as my own time. I've also begun playing those "spontaneous sessions" when the baby's safely (and deeply) asleep.

We've come to the compromise that poker and family aren't mutually exclusive, nor should they ever be.

And an aside, QL (you know who you are, I'm sure), I'm honored that you read my humble blog, and while I didn't take your advice per se, I did in a slightly different way. Thank you.

Remember kids, the other bloggers (CC, TripJax, etc) are all very right--communication is vital to any relationship, and the maintenance of those communication lines are even more vital to the survival of those relationships. Be open about what you want to accomplish with poker, and what you want from the game. Also be realistic about your goals. Be honest with your SO (significant other) about what you do, and set boundaries--for both of you.

Again, thanks all for your support.

Still Alive

2006-06-24T23:01:00.000-04:00

Yeah, I'm still here, still trying to figure out that whole wife/family/poker equation. Thanks all for all your help. I'm wondering now if the only real solution here could end up being my retirement from online poker.

She still complains about the time I spend playing, even though I've cut back from about 2500-3000 hands/week to about 500 hands in the last two weeks. She even went far enough to claim that I was lying about my successes online, despite me showing her all my NetTeller transactions, AND PokerTracker databases, and the lovely things that the money seemed to be coming from nowhere to buy. I was saving a significant portion of my paycheck for our family. Since she's been on maternity leave (and only receiving disability) that money has only gone to our bills, and she keeps her disability for spending money. I've managed to save more money (from poker) than I did before. This fact didn't change things.

She told me that what I claim to have done with online poker (depositing $200 and making over $10k) is virtually impossible without pure luck. I explain to her that out of 30 million or so Americans who play poker, that I am likely very safely in the top 5%. This fact didn't change things.

I'm not sure I have an out here. She disagrees with the fundamental thought of me playing poker because playing poker = gambling, and her father has a very addictive personality, and it's only a matter of time before I gamble our home away. Mind you, I play with likely the most stringent stop-loss limits out there, and when I go to the casino, I take enough money to play my game of choice (the highest game I would play), $50 extra for food and tips, my Ez-Pass for tolls, and leave my MAC card and credit cards at home. I don't even KNOW the PIN numbers for my credit cards. These facts didn't change things.

She also knows that I derive income from advertising here and moderating over at Vegas Poker Pro. This fact didn't change things.

Regardless, I fear I'm drawing very thin here. I may have to just fold my hand and walk away.

Still working on a compromise...Wish me the best!

The Announcement

2006-06-11T08:34:00.000-04:00

Despite the negative tone of the previous post, and despite the fact that my wife still views me as a degenerate, I think we've hit a middle ground. Thanks, CC.

Well, back to your regularly scheduled post:

My big announcement is that I have now become officially affiliated with VegasPokerPro.com. I am moderating a PokerTracker and Advanced Strategy Forum there, and I will be blogging strategy articles that will be exclusive to VPP. Once the blog address becomes more set in stone, I'll link to it from here.

I'm also inviting all my readers to join the community over there. It's a growing community, and I hope to make the Advanced Strategy Forum a nice place to have good discussion. I hope to see you over there!

Life (or Something Like It)

2006-06-07T19:36:00.000-04:00

Well, I knew it would likely happen, but I really wasn't expecting it now, especially with so much going on and my new-found comfort level in my "semi-pro" skin.

I was on the other end of "The Talk." The talk where your wife/husband/significant other tells you that they're sick and tired of all this "poker shit," and that you don't talk anymore, that you don't care anymore, that maybe, just maybe you need to go to G.A.!!!!!!

Yeah, that talk. For some background, I've known my wife/dated her, etc. for nearly thirteen years. We've been married a little less than one, and of course, our most precious little one has been here a little more than seven weeks. I've known poker for about two years now, and I've played for real for about a year and a half. I am probably the most UNWILLING gambler in the world. I've been to the casinos live to play poker more in the last two years that I had been to the casinos in the previous eight years since turning 21. I liked playing craps and blackjack a little, usually won (since I am, after all, a luckbox), but I could take or leave the whole casino thing.

Until I discovered the skill behind poker. I'm a hyper-competitive guy to begin with, so when presented with a game that I could learn--mathematics, theory, whoopee!--and actually make money from, I was insta-hooked. The results, after the initial hiccups that every beginning learning player has, came quickly. In 2005, I probably made close to $7000 in profit from online poker. This year, I'm close to $4000 playing less than half the time I did last year.

I made $1600 just last month, (even with a -$750 bender on Stars when the "He Can't Win" button was stuck in the downward position). That being said, the money for me is only a way to keep score. I make significantly enough money in my real career now that while the additional income is great, it's by far not a necessity for me. In fact, if people played play chips like they played the 30/60 LHE on Stars, I'd probably still be playing there...

So, she tells me I play on the computer too much, that I play poker too much, and that I obviously don't care about her or our baby.

What. The. Fuck.

You can say a lot of things to me, but the last portion of that was a lot for me to bear. Especially since every last penny of my poker profits this year have gone to our savings accounts, used to finish our basement, the baby's room, or the baby's college fund--created with OPM... Especially since I feel that I'm at least an adequate first-time dad. I mean, I go to work every day, I make money--damn good money, BTW--and I make sure my family has everything they could ever want.

Again--What. The. Fuck.

To make a long story short, I basically promised to play a little less--ok, a lot less--and to not play while the baby's awake. I'm not sure how to feel about this, especially since I'm on the verge of announcing a fairly significant deal on the website/affiliation front.

Poker is my hobby. It is a very lucrative hobby, and one that I enjoy very much. I explained this to her, and I think we have more of an understanding now about what I want out of my hobby and out of my life. I never had designs on becoming a full time professional player, but I did thoroughly enjoy competing, and winning money that will benefit my family. Not me--my entire family. Without her income for the next three months (extended maternity leave), it just ensures that we have enough money to keep saving a significant amount without strapping me or the family with bills, etc.

Perhaps it's a lame-ass excuse to want to keep playing. Like I said, the money's there--you're a fool if it truly doesn't matter to you--but to me it's just another way of keeping score.

I felt that Project Cashout was a way to maintain profits while still enjoying the game, and providing myself a tangible goal each month or with each cashout. I don't know the future of Project Cashout, but I've kissed my $1000/month goal goodbye and I'm re-aligning my goals with my present situation.

Again, I don't know how I feel about that, but we proceed on.

Plugging Leaks in the NL Game

2006-05-28T16:35:00.000-04:00

Every once in a while, I go digging in my PokerTracker database to see what hands are costing me the most money, and it serves as a nice reminder of why exactly I don't do this for a living, since some of the hands I play and lose money with are just flat out stupid.

Here's my criteria for discovering leak hands. This is the results-oriented version of the scan, but it still shows a decent amount of leakage:

1) The hands must have a respective VP$IP of >50%, meaning that I actually PLAY the hand, not just do something stupid from a blind.

2) The hands must be an overall money loser (in terms of BB/hand)

Now, on to the fun (in no particular order):

1) This is, and has been, the biggest leak in my game, both NL, and Limit: Ace-x suited. I know that you rarely make a flush from two suited cards in your hand. So why do I play these cards so damn often? It's not only the small Axs'--it goes as high as AJs and AQs:

AQs: VP$IP: 100%, PFR: 100%, BB/Hand: -0.44
AJs: VP$IP: 100%, PFR: 90%, BB/Hand: -0.35

I wrote an article a while back about AK, which can be found here, and I still haven't fully taken my own advice. Examine these two hands--what can be taken from these? Are they raising hands? Yes, and these are hands that can be raised with almost irregardless of position. They are very strong hands, so why am I losing money with them? Simple. They haven't made a damn thing yet. They are drawing hands. If you don't flop an ace, or your kicker (Q or J) as the high card on the board, you have absolutely nothing. Ace-high. How often does ace-high win a nice sized pot? You got it. Hardly ever. You have the advantage of being suited, but what does that really do for you if you don't flop at least a flush draw?

These are hands that can make money for you, but should be played with caution, since they generally will either win you many small pots, or lose you a few big ones.

The thought process? Raise to 5 BB (2.5 PTBB), miss the flop, lead out with pot-sized continuation bet (5 PTBB), win small pot. Or, get re-raised and dump it. These hands are real nice, but you need to know when to toss them away.

2) Continuing the stupidity:

A9s: 100/70/-1.93
A5s: 82/0/-0.33
A4s: 78/0/-0.17
A3s: 80/0/-1.04
A2s: 70/0/-3.77

A9s is a great way to go broke, since many players will call a raise with AQ, AJ, or AT, and you make yourself quite the wonderful second best hand to lose money on. Again, you end up chasing flushes or chasing the ace to improve your hand.

Hint: If you have A9s, you raise pre-flop, see a Jack-high flop, toss in a continuation bet and get called--you're usually in deep trouble. Don't let the "weak" play fool you. What is Caro's number one primary tell? Weak is strong, strong is weak. Most online players aren't smart enough to reverse-tell you, but they do know how to slowplay and trap an "overly aggressive player" who is tossing chips away on what could be loosely called a semi-bluff.

3) If you're just reading this post, this will surprise you quite a bit:

KK: 100/100/-6.62

This is the single losingest hand in my limited NL database. Why? I've won 10 of the 12 times I was dealt cowboys, but the other two times, within an hour at PokerRoom, I ran KK into AA. Both times the opponent was relatively loose, and I didn't give him credit for AA, even when he re-raised me AGAIN. Both hands went, (opponent) open-raise, (me) re-raise, (opponent) re-re-raise--don't try and steal my raise, bastard. I have COWBOYS!, (me) push. (opponent) insta-call.

One time I actually rivered a set. Shame he flopped his set. The other time, I was just screwed from the beginning, and there is NOTHING worse in the world than flipping over KK and seeing AA across from you, while all your chips are sitting in the middle of the table.

Phil Gordon said (very simply), "The fourth raise means aces." I add to it--except when you make the fourth raise without aces, and the player across from you has them, in which case, the insta-call (whoops) means aces.

4) This is what I call a "borderline hand." On it's own, it sucks, but with the right flop you can win some serious coin, or make another lovely second-best hand. Overall, I win with these hands when I go to the flop--it's just beyond that I get into trouble. The flop continuation bet is okay as a move. Trying it on the turn and river, especially to a calling station, is nothing more than just donking off chips:

KQs: 100/100/-3.51
KJs: 94/42/-0.77
QTs: 82/9/-3.01

The last one is just plain stupid. Trying to steal with garbage and getting caught with your hand in the cookie jar--brilliant. D'oh.

5) What are the most dangerous hands in Texas Hold'em? Simple. The second best hand. Also on the list are those damn middle pairs. Everybody knows that 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, and 77 are all "set-it-or-forget-it" propositions. But what about 88, 99, TT, or JJ? How far will you take ANY of these hands when a Q hits the flop, or any other overcard? If your answer was, "They hit the muck," then go to the head of the class. So why can't I do that?

Lesson learned for me, and I hope for you as well.

The "Long Run" of Poker

2006-05-24T20:03:00.000-04:00

If you learn anything playing this game, it's that the "long run" is extremely long indeed. For example, when I first got myself back to playing a lot of LHE on Stars in February, I was literally crushing the 3/6 and 5/10 games and have taken quite a bit off the tables in cashouts.

That's where the bubble burst. It seems as though I just can't log myself a decent session at Stars since the cashouts (tinfoil hat anyone??), so what do I do? Continue to donk off chips in games that just aren't working for me? Hell no. I discovered PokerRoom, and started playing some $50NL there. I originally took $300 with me to clear a bonus, and within 2 days, I had cashed out the $300, cleared the bonus, and was playing with other people's money by being murderously aggressive. It's almost like I'm taking out my aggravation at the Stars LHE games on the poor sots over at PokerRoom. Sometimes a change in venue is required to get your game straight.

So I'm down close to $600 at Stars since my cashouts--where's my tinfoil hat?--and I've taken a mini-break from LHE, and I'm winning at PokerRoom, and I really haven't done a whole lot with Full Tilt lately. I decide to enter a new player freeroll at PokerRoom last night.

You can tell it's a freeroll when:

You go 2+ levels without playing a hand. You get dealt AA, raise 4x BB from UTG+1, get re-raised to 500 by a LP player, push all in, and see your AA heads up with 88. Of course, the 8 flops and your night is over.

But that's okay. It was a freeroll.

Then I saw THIS hand at the $50NL at Full Tilt (no, not a BAHH, just a re-cap). I'm UTG with AKs, and raise to $2.50. MP1 re-raises me to $7, and I flat call, and we're heads-up to the flop. Flop comes K-6-2 rainbow, and I check, figuring he'll be glad to do the betting for me. He bets $6 into a $14+ pot, and I push. He insta-calls, and shows...QQ? Turn brings an A, river gives the donkey his two-outer.

I actually had to ask him what his logic was in calling that bet in that situation. He said, and I quote, "There were still two queens in the deck. I figured one would come."

I responded, "Cute, but no, seriously, how could you call that," expecting him to say something like that he thought I was bluffing or something like that.

His deathly serious response, "I've been sucked out on a lot tonight, and I knew I was beat, but figured I was due."

No shit.

But it's all just a single hand in the big session of life.

Future plans right now include getting back to the LHE tables at Stars and getting myself back to the level of dominance I've exhibited over the last year--the "longer than now" run. I think I need to stop analyzing what the hell's happening over there. So this will be it, I promise. Trying to avoid the legendary tinfoil hat issue, all I can say is that it seems like someone over at Stars is sitting there, watching me play, and suddenly, they pull out the "He Can't Win" button and lay on it for a few weeks.

Some of these things are just ridiculous. I'm not immune to tilt, and I know for sure that a good amount of the losses have been tilt-dependent, but sometimes it makes you wonder. My Tracker numbers are identical, but it's just two numbers that tell the story: W$SD and, of course, winnings.

February 1-May 1, W$SD: 58.35%
May 1-May 24, W$SD: 41.65%

Ok. When I had the meltdown last fall, it looked like so...
January 1, 2005-October 8, 2005, W$SD: 56.32%
October 8, 2005-December 31, 2005, W$SD: 40.68%

VP$IP, PFR, AF-Total, etc. are virtually statistically identical. What happens, and this is the part of poker that frustrates me so much, is that the motherphucking luck element raises its ugly head. What's the difference in the above ranges? Your AK's don't hit. That third heart hits the river, allowing the idiot to hit his flush. The BB flops a straight to take down your top set. You start running KK into AA, AQ into AK, and AK into A2 when the 2 hits the river.

Which of course, puts you on tilt, which of course, tosses your game into the crapper, and you compound the problem by adjusting your style from Ultra-Aggressive to Ultra-Shitty. And so it goes. The only way to cure this, IMHO, is to take a break from the game to help block the negative mojo from your mind. Of course, it didn't help that the PokerStars 5-Billionth Hand thingy has been going on, which of course brought every moron with a dream out to play their brand of stupid poker. Only thing is, the "He Can't Win" button overcame my ability to outplay the truly idiotic. Of course, the button is only in my mind, and players like this are exactly the ones we want to play against, since they are the players that are building my adorable daughter's college fund.

Again, just a single hand in the big session of life.

Keep telling yourself that--it's just a single hand in the big session of life.

Go--Sign Up Now!

2006-05-23T20:21:00.000-04:00

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!

This Online Poker Tournament is a No Limit Texas Holdem event exclusive to Bloggers.

Registration code: 7330476

Project Cashout and Other Stuff

2006-05-19T18:14:00.000-04:00

One of the things I've decided to do since the birth of my beautiful daughter is start taking more regular withdrawals from my poker accounts. Since May 1, I've been able to make over $1000 between cashouts from various sites, rakeback, and other revenues. It's worked out very well, even despite the rough stretch over at Stars.

In homage to Jordan's "To Do List" post, I've decided to make a sort of modified list, a list of my "poker goals" for the summer months:

Cash out at least $1000/month in winnings and other revenues. I think this is attainable if I play patient, smart, and avoid the tilt-monster.

Finish off the promotions I have going on now, and withdraw that money (with a positive balance, unlike the debacle I dealt with at Absolute Poker...another day) and lather, rinse repeat for some more goodies.

Play in some NL tournaments, maybe one live at the Taj (of course, if the Baby Shark allows) to prep myself for the run I plan to take at the US Poker Championship (USPC) at the Taj in September. I'd like to play in one preliminary event, and pending the results there, maybe take a crack at a satellite at the Main Event.

Play enough on Stars (with the help of increased VPP rates) to get to 20,000 VPPs. I want a friggin' iPod 30GB, and I want it now. Yeah, I'm the guy still left in the US without an iPod.

To re-iterate another point from #1, above, avoid tilt at all costs. Bad beats are just that, bad beats, and are not a conspiracy by the poker sites to screw you out of your money.

Just think, the fact that you take bad beats in the first place mean that you're getting your money in with the best of it consistently--think of the beats that way--and that you forced your opponent into making a severe mistake to call and put the beat on you.

And now, to answer TripJax' Blogger version of 21 Questions:

1. What is the biggest mistake people make at a NL table?
Playing far too loosely, especially in terms of calling raises.

2. What is the biggest mistake people make at a Limit table?
Calling without having appropriate odds to call--but that's how I make my money...

3. Why do you play poker?
I'm competitive by my nature, I love the competition, and because the mathematics and theory of the game intrigues me. The money is just another perk.

4. If you weren't playing poker, what would you be doing?
Probably improving my handicap--you know, what I was doing before this obsession took over my soul.

5. What is your favorite poker book and why?
Small Stakes Hold'em by Miller, Sklansky, and Malmuth. Why? Because that book was a primary reason I went from being an "okay" break-even player to being an excellent and very profitable limit-hold'em player.

6. Who is your favorite poker player and why?
Tough one. I like Greg Raymer because he's a real guy like me--a professional dude with a career and a family who did this for fun, then as a profitable hobby, then became a World Champion. If it's not Raymer, it's probably Phil Ivey, just for his straight-ahead, murderer approach to the game. If it's not those two, it's Marcel Luske, because he's such a damn nice guy. Ferguson and Lederer are way up there too on that "good guy" list.

7. Which poker player do you dislike the most and why?
Tough one. I haven't really met any pros other than some online interaction, but the guys that rub me the wrong damn way are Hellmuth (just because he overdoes it and projects and unprofessional look), and Sheikhan--who, as Joe Speaker said, is just a first class asshole at the table. He might be a great guy away from the game, but as far a poker player goes, he comes off as a real dick, and he makes me want to play him for a stack or two--and bust his ass back to wherever it was he came from.

8. Do your coworkers know about your blog?
Yes, and the only thing anybody cares about is that I don't gamble from work. I never have, so it's a non-issue. They're more concerned with my gratuitous use of the internet from work than what the hell I do on it. And by the way, Bracelet--you rock, the stuffed shirts suck.

9. What is the most you have won in a cash game or MTT (both live and online)?
I've won a $20+2 LHE tourney on PokerStars, cashing after a final table chop for like $500 or so, and I've had $500 days in LHE cash games more than a few times. I've also cashed in the Taj Wednesday night tourney (13th of 300+) for about $200.

10. What is the most you have lost in a cash game or in one day total (both live and online)?
In what can be called the worst day of my poker life, I lost two buy-ins at 5/10 LHE, then moved up to 10/20 to make it back. Bad idea. I ended up losing over $1000 that day. Since then, I've implemented stop-loss limits.

11. Who was your first poker blog read?
Maudie, then Halverson, then Iggy and Pauly.

12. What satisfies you more, your aces holding up for a big pot or a bluff working for a big pot?
The satisfaction that I outplayed my opponent is the thing, so it has to be the bluff. I love big pots regardless of how they come, but outplaying my opponent is the real deal.

13. Why do you blog?
Because everybody else does it. :-) No, I blog because I feel that I have some things, whether strategy, entertainment, or anything else, to contribute to the community at large. Plus, I can look back and laugh at all of this some day.

14. Do you read blogs from an RSS reader like bloglines or do you visit each blog?
Mostly bloglines, but I will visit blogs on my list regularly.

15. Would you rather play poker for a living than do what you currently do for a living?
Part of me says absolutely, but this (poker) is a tough ass way to make an easy living. I'm really good at this, but nobody avoids the variance bug.

16. Do you wear a tin foil hat on occasion?
No, but I have wondered about the legendary "cashout curse," does that count?

17. If you had to pin it down to one specific trait, what does a great poker player have (or do) that separates them from an average player?
I don't think I could say one, but definitely two--First, the ability to shrug off losses and focus on their play, realizing that results will come so long as they make correct decisions. Second, the ability (or super-human in the case of a guy like Daniel Negreanu) to read people to a "tee." Watching Negreanu play sometimes is fun. You wonder sometimes, when he's really on, if he's just seeing his opponents' cards face up.

18. Is Drizz the coolest person on the planet for naming his baby Vegas?
Yeah, sorta, but my baby's cuter. Sorry, Drizz, I just had to.

19. What is your primary poker goal and are you close to accomplishing it?
See above. I want to have poker as a profitable hobby, and make a little money on the side

20. What is your primary online site and why?
PokerStars and Full Tilt. I've loved Stars since the beginning. It's where I started, and it's where I play a ton even now. Great software, and for whatever reason, I've had more success there (expressed as winrates) than any place else. Full Tilt because it's a well-designed and well-run site.

21. What site do you dislike and why?
I hate Party Poker. Always have, always will. I just can't seem to win there, and it's always a string of just horrendous beats that cost me my money. The Schooling of the Fish is just too intense there for me to overcome.

It's been fun, but work beckons, so continued luck at the tables!

Glad to See You Back, Doc...

2006-05-10T22:21:00.000-04:00

The great Dr. Pauly has returned to blogging, and while perusing his last few posts, I found some of the greatest stuff written on limit poker. No, not the Wall Street Game story, which is fantastic all on its own.

I'm talking about this little portion of his post from last week, Through the Looking Glass: April Maelstrom:

I've been trying to improve my play on the turn in limit poker. I have to remind myself to stay aggressive and not give any free cards. On Party Poker, I have experienced that players who check-raise on the turn with a drawing board (two suited cards or two straight cards) are usually players who have a big draw. In the past, I just called the check-raise on a board with two diamonds. Nowadays, I jam the fucker if I think I got the best hand. If he has a higher set or a better two pair, then so be it. Never give someone a chance to catch up with a free card because you are scared you're gonna get check-raised. Jen Harman mentioned that in her chapter in Super System 2.
Harman also discusses that the key to short-handed limit poker is aggression and isolation. If you are going to play any hand at a short-handed table, you have to raise preflop. You are trying to thin the field and play heads-up against the blinds or someone else. She's also a staunch proponent of defending your blinds in short-handed play. I've improved that aspect of my game. I'm not giving up my big blinds as much as I used to. That was my biggest leak according to Poker Tracker... my blind play was awful. Sometimes I think I'm defending too much, or defending too little. I had to pay more attention to the situation. Plus if you know that someone's on a button steal, call and be prepared to check-raise them on the flop. And if I win the pot with nothing, I'll show my junk hand to prove that I'll defend my blinds with anything and to increase the implied tilt odds of the table.
The hardest part about cracking low limit games like the 2-4 at Foxwoods or the 2-4 at Commerce is that there are 7+ players to every flop. Your aces and big pairs decrease in value with so many players seeing a flop. That's why you have to play more hands, especially any two cards in late position to do well. And even then, you're gonna experience huge swings.
Moving up in levels decreases the number of players per pot. Limpers are more willing to fold in a 10-20 game than a 2-4 game. Plus most pots that I win at 10-20 are taken down before showdown. I remembering reading Lou Krieger's book Hold'em Excellence and he spoke about in low limit poker that you are need the best hand to win at showdown so don't try to bluff. But at the higher limits, you can get away with missing flops with small pairs or A-K and A-Q and still take down the pot with a continuation bet.
I haven't gotten used to play 10-20 shorthanded 6-max. I play too timid when I move up in levels for the first time. I hate playing scared. Here's an example...
I'll found J-J and re-raised from the cutoff. With two callers there was a King on the rainbow flop. One guy bet out and the action came to me. I raised and he re-raised.
"Pocket Death," is how Derek describes pocket Jacks.
He's right. So do I call or fold? I folded and dropped my pants to find my testicles. Normally I would have called the raise and check-called all the way to the river. Since it's limit, that's only another 2.5 BB investment. I told you I play new levels like a pussy. I would have called that in a heartbeat if it was a 5/10 table.
Now if that hand was live, then that's another story. I have a better read on people in live games. I've been catching civilians lying to me all the time. At least poker players get to practice their poker faces. I had such a great read on liars that my ex-girlfriend insisted she talk to me on the phone only because that way it would be harder for me to pick apart the lies in the conversation.

That little blurb is pure brilliance on so many levels. It's good to have you back, Pauly.

Solid Results End--with a resounding THUD

2006-05-10T20:04:00.000-04:00

Why is it that whenever I make certain plans to make regular withdrawals from my poker accounts, I have to endure a day like I did yesterday? I cashed out a bunch of extra money (>$700) from my winnings since May 1, then I decided to play yesterday and took some of the worst beats I have ever taken in a single session of poker. Not to whine about bad beats, but these are Hall-of-Fame-quality taken alone, but taken together, that they all occurred in one session is absolutely stupefying:

Remember, these hand segments I'm showing you are from the SAME SESSION:

1) 8d8c vs. QsJc--flop Qc-9c-8s, turn Js (I'm an 86.5% favorite to win here), river Jh--he rivers a bigger boat. He had outs from the flop (4 T's, 2 Q's), and picked up the other two J's as outs on the turn, but flopping a set and losing is frustrating, especially when you 3-bet him on the flop.

2) KsQh vs. QsQd--I really can't complain here, but in this hand, I cold called two bets pre-flop (yes, I know that whenever you cold call, god kills a puppy...), and outflopped him on the K-4-5 flop. He led out and I raised, letting him know EXACTLY where he stood (I was a 91% favorite here). He check-called the 9c turn (and I was a 98% favorite at this point), and of course, spiked his two-outer Q on the river to win.

3) 99 vs. 98s--He was UTG, limped and called my MP raise (because, you know, somebody who plays 14/9/3.5 raises with garbage in MP). He flopped a pair of 8's on the A-8-T flop, and I knew he didn't have an Ace. I led out (representing the ace), and he called. I'm an 86% favorite to win here, and he, of course, spikes another two outer (same guy as in #2 above) to win the hand with trip 8's.

4) TT vs. AJo--I open raise with TT, and my opponent calls with AJ from MP. Flop is K-T-3 rainbow (despite his gutshot draw, I'm 86% to win here). I lead out on the turn with the 5s. This makes me a 91% favorite. The Q hits the river, I lead, he raises, and I make the crying call to see his rivered straight.

We're not done here yet--this one may be the most brutal yet...

5) AA vs. AJs--I open raise in MP2, and the player in the CO calls with AJs. This is the same player as in the last three hands. I lead out on the 2-8-6 rainbow flop. I'm a 95% favorite to win on the flop. He calls. The turn brings the 7c. I lead, he calls, he IMPROVES to only a 4-to-1 underdog. The river completes the flush. I led out, he raised me for the last $6 in front of me, and I called to see his friggin' runner-runner flush.

Unbelievable--and if you were wondering about a cashout curse...

So, I decide to drop back down to 3/6, after being down $247, thinking maybe it will help. Think again:

1) QJo vs. AKo vs. T9o--First off, UTG had AK and LIMPED it. UTG+1 had the T9o and LIMPED IT. 6 players saw the Q-J-7 flop. Yahtzee. I'm a 59-28-13 favorite here. Mr. T9 bets, and I raise--correctly. Only two fold, so four players see the turn of 3c. Now I'm a 76-17-7 favorite. River card? You guessed it, the Kd. Another crying call to see his straight.

A couple more 3-to-1 favorite beats, some tilty hands, and I end the day down $347 at Stars. I even lost $23 playing PLO8 when my turned full house lost to a higher rivered full house (yes, I pot out the turn)...

Bad days like these make me wonder. Is it something in my own makeup that I want to make money that forces me to push more than usual and make incorrect decisions? I think you'd be hard pressed to find more correct decisions than those listed above. Maybe I could've saved a bet or two, but when cards are stacked against you like that, combined with the fact that no matter how much you bet-bet-bet or raise-raise-raise, these calling stations (yes, all of these players had Aggression Factors of 0.8 or less) just won't fold, I think I was "destined" to lose that money regardless of what I do. The AA vs. AJ hand was just brutal, and it seemed as though no matter what I would do, someone would catch a miracle card on me. I know it happens. I've been playing long enough and I'm smart enough to know that not only does it happen, but we, as profitable players NEED it to happen. The fish and other idiots are how we derive our income. But damnit, it's just really frustrating when the beats come like this.

Back to the drawing board. No poker tonight, as work beckons, plus it's good that I'll have a chance to clear my head of all the bad thoughts that yesterday put in there. I just ordered "Zen and the Art of Poker," and maybe that book will supply some answers as well as some ideas about playing tilt-free poker. We can all learn a little of that.

Turning a Corner in My Poker Career

2006-05-09T11:00:00.000-04:00

First off, I'd like to thank everyone in the community for all their well wishes for the birth of my daughter, and for all their advice about fitting poker into a life at home with a baby. I'd also like to say that you were ALL right.

Having a baby is one of the most rewarding things, and at the same time, one of the most frustrating things a person can ever go through. With that being said, the love you feel for that little one is something that can't be described, matched, or replaced. It's also something that really "interferes" with the course of a conventional poker career.

So what I decided to do is start a project with my poker playing:

I'm playing Limit Holdem at PokerStars (3/6 and 5/10), and Pot-Limit Omaha 8-or better at Full Tilt ($50). I'm starting with 200 BB in the 5/10 game at Stars, and 8 buy-ins in the $50 PL game at Full Tilt. Whatever I make weekly above and beyond that, I'm cashing out weekly on Sunday. I'm taking that money and putting half of it away for my daughter, and investing the other half for our family. So far, I've done pretty damn well. I started in earnest May 1, without even calling it "my project." But due to the miracle of PokerTracker, I've been able to keep pretty good track of my winnings.

I've gotten a great deal out of poker in the last two years, and now, my family's going to benefit from poker at least as much as I have.

It's Been a While

2006-05-06T22:14:00.000-04:00

I haven't posted in quite some time, partially because:

1) I don't really have a ton to say--quality before quantity, I always say.

2) With Alexis around, I really haven't had a lot of time to write anything.

With that being said, I've started playing PLO8 at Full Tilt, the $50's, and I've really done exceptionally well, up 4+ buy-ins within a week, and that's only playing a few hours. That goes along with still playing the 3/6 and 5/10 at Stars, so let's just say I've been making some money since my beautiful daughter came along. It's really good, too, since that money's going straight to her college fund.

All those players that have unwillingly contributed to the Baby Shark's college fund--thank you.

That's all for today--I'll be back updating soon! Best of luck to all!

Welcome to the World, Sweetheart!

2006-04-19T12:57:00.000-04:00

Monday, April 17, 2006, 9:57pm EDT
6 pounds, 7 ounces, 19 inches long

Welcome to the world, Alexis Danielle!!

An Oldie But a Goodie...

2006-04-16T12:17:00.000-04:00

Just was browsing the archives at 9-2 Offsuit, and I found an article about moving from Limit to NL--an article I should have read 6 months ago...

From sexypanda over at 2+2:

Moving to NL from Limit

--Adjust your thinking about preflop hands, a lot. Big unsuited cards go way down in value and will make costly second-best hands. Small pairs go up in value. If AKo is your only unsuited playable hand you wouldn’t be far wrong. Add AQo but for god’s sake be careful with it.

--Pairs are great — sets are how you will make money. If the game is not too aggressive you can get away with playing any pair from any position. (Given that you’re going to be playing quite a deep-stacked NL game, you should possibly start to worry about set-over-set when you have bottom set and it’s getting a lot of action. But generally sets are a goldmine.

--Having just said that you can disregard position with the baby pocket pairs, position is really important in NL. Big pairs and big suited cards only up front (small pairs as well if you can get away with it). As it gets to later positions, start to add in medium suited connectors like JTs, then later still you can add small suited connectors and one-gappers, plus the little suited aces. Learn about the 5-10 rule: basically you should only feel comfortable calling a raise with one of these drawing hands if it’s for less than 5% of the effective stack size (which is the minimum of yours and his).

--Don’t go broke in an unraised pot and promise yourself you won’t go all-in with only TPTK. This is not absolutely correct for all circumstances but if you stick to this rule you will thank me later.

--If you get an opportunity to push all-in with AA preflop then don’t be afraid to do so. (E.g., you raise with AA and get a significant reraise, or you hold AA in late position and there’s been a big raise.)

--On the flop if you hold a truly great draw (e.g., open-ended straight flush draw, nut flush draw with top pair) then feel free to raise a significant bettor all-in. You do not want to see a blank on the turn and have to face a big bet for the right to see one more card.

--Have a standard preflop raising amount: 4 x the big blind plus 1 BB more per limper is good. Don’t bet more with better hands and less with worse hands, for obvious reasons.

--Have a default postflop betting amount too (although there will be strategic reasons to vary this occasionally). I suggest 2/3 of the pot.

--Be prepared to bet when you have a hand like TPTK and happily fold it to a raise (they are usually not putting a play on you but are saying they can beat TPTK), but also to bet just the same when you have a set and then go all-in when that bet is raised. It’s important to always bet like you mean it, even though sometimes you are fearful and desperately want everyone to fold (e.g., a top pair medium kicker situation) or desperately want to be raised so you can go all-in (e.g., you have the nuts).

--Remember that flush draws won’t have great implied odds, as when the flush comes it’s obvious and people won’t call a big bet. So be sure you really do have the current pot odds to call a flush draw. Straight draws, especially double gutshot straight draws, are much better in this regard.

--Again, don’t go broke in an unraised pot. Remember that if it wasn’t raised some people could have anything at all.

--And one more time: don’t go all-in when your TPTK gets raised. Good aggressive limit players have learned to go to the felt with TPTK more often than not, but this habit is going to kill you in NL.

--And generally don’t be the one calling all-in: you want to be the bettor as then you have fold equity (although maybe not much in a loose game).

Great stuff, all involved. It deserved to be resurrected.

The Benefits of Having a TAG Image

2006-04-15T08:25:00.001-04:00

WARNING: Hand history to follow. I know most people hate HH's, but I had to share this one.

I'm playing 5/10, TAGging it up at a nice 15/9/3.5 clip or so, and I'm in middle/late position (MP3 to be exact)...

Me: 7h 6h

What the hell, I raise after two limpers (UTG and MP1). When you have a truly tight image, you can actually win a bunch of small pots this way (by raising pre-flop and leading out on the flop). Someone will call two cold or a raise with a marginal hand looking to hit a flop and when they miss and you lead, they dump it. So, great, I raise. It gets folded to the small blind who 3-bets. Uh-oh. Didn't want that, but since I'm already in for two, I should call the third bet, right? Of course. UTG folds, MP1 plays along and I call. So what flops?

Flop: 8s 4d 5h

Yahtzee. I start to giggle maniacally, and my wife peeks in from the kitchen to see if I've lost it in my pre-daddy hysteria or to see just what the hell is wrong with me. I answer her with (almost in sing-song), "Somebody's losing some mo----ney... Somebody's losing some mo----ney!!!" She realizes that she doesn't have to worry about me losing it because of the kid--it's already long gone.

To my further surprise, the SB leads out. MP1 calls, and I figure I'm not giving anybody a chance to catch a hand, so I raise. Both call. Yipppeee.

Turn: 3c

SB leads out AGAIN. I LOVE THIS GAME! MP1 calls again, and I raise--AGAIN. Rinse, repeat, right? Both call, again. Heehee.

River: 8c

Board pairs, so unless someone's playing 88 or has a set, a distinct possibility, I'm good here. The action's checked to me, I lead out, EXPECTING a check-raise, and just get called in both places.

The SB shows Ks Kd, MP1 shows 9h 9d (??!?!?!), and the $175 pot slides toward my little shark bubble. Then, the tilt begins. "You stupid donkey mutherf***er...(sic)" "Stupid moron..." "Friggin' PS is rigged..." MP1 just said, "nh," but the SB wouldn't let it go. He keeps it up for another 15 minutes, after which he's donked off the remaining $160 in his chipstack and leaves, busted.

Mission accomplished.

The lesson? Simple. When you've shown down your AK's, your QQ's, and other big hands, people put you on big hands when you show aggression. When you throw in a 76s here and there, whether you win the hand uncontested pre-flop or like I did, with a flourish of blood and chips, it's important to show that as well. It puts doubt in your opponent's mind. What is it? Deception. If all you've done is coerced even one player to keep playing with you after a pre-flop raise, you've succeeded. Next time, you'll show AA on an ace-high flop.

The way a poker player succeeds is not in playing a particular style, even to perfection, it's in being able to switch it up by flowing freely between styles during a session and maximizing not only value and odds, but also maximizing deception.

Comment Confusion

2006-04-13T11:34:00.000-04:00

Apologies to all those who commented on the blog recently and weren't answered. I somehow clicked on "moderate comments" without knowing, and I had a truckload of comments to publish.

Thanks to CC for the heads up!!

It's My Blog and I'll Cliche If I Want To...

2006-04-12T18:20:00.000-04:00

"You gotta know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time for countin'
When the dealin's done."

I played a 3/6 last night and ran up a $100 buy-in to $260 in a matter of 25 minutes. I did it by just brute force and superior hands. I had a erstwhile student of sorts at the table, and he was truly marveling at the Shark's way of running a table over. I've done this before, many times before, especially at the 3/6 game on Stars, and I continued to play for about another hour.

Losing every penny.

I know it's no big deal at the grand scheme of things, and I recouped my losses at other tables I played (2-tabling each 3/6 and 5/10), but damn, 40+ BB is a long way to fall. The thing about poker that frustrates me to death, and is truly my weakness, is that I can play with great cards (anybody can), I can play with okay cards, I can play with mediocre cards, I can even play with bad cards. But there are times that it's like the poker gods look down upon you, feeling all good about yourself, and decide it's time to remind you that THEY are the ones in charge. They smite--and they smite hard.

They let you make great hands, like AK on a flop of A-K-2, and the give your opponent a hand like 22. They let you make the nut flush, then pair the board to give another player a full house.

At what point do you look at your swollen stack and say, "Let's get this wad off the table...?"

When do you walk away? Last night, I didn't walk away quick enough, and I let a $200+ win turn into a break-even session by playing my ass off on the other tables.

This can't be a +EV way to play. Anyhow, I donked it up playing $50 PLO enough to register a cute little profit, so all's well that ends well...

-----------------------------------------------------

On the baby front, nothing new to report. The legend of the full moon is definitely in my mind (an old hospital wives' tale that says that OB admissions and deliveries spike during the full moon--and it's actually true, for some not-known-to-medical-science reason), so I don't personally think that the Mrs. is going to make it through the weekend without popping out a baby Shark.

Remodeling is officially finished as of today. The last of the rugs were put in, so I've finished my basement, re-did the baby's room, re-painted the entire house, and re-carpeted the entire house. My ass is dragging, and that should explain the lack of posts...It's been over the last six months, and now we have from tomorrow until the baby's born to adjust to our new-found normalcy, before the baby comes to flip our lives completely upside down.

And I'll love every minute of it.

-------------------------------------
I'll finish tonight with a post that was linked on 9-2 Offsuit, and written by a guy named Tommy Angelo:

Betcha can't turn your computer off.

See. Told you.

Oh, you weren't ready? You didn't know there was a challenge coming?

Okay. Take your time. Time's up. So, what'd you decide? You don't want to take the dare? You just want to keep your computer on and have me go away?

I'll be gone, soon enough. But first, let me tell you the prize, so that you will know exactly what it is you are about to say no to. Turn your computer off, right now, and you will increase your poker strength.

On three.

One . . .

Two . . .

Three.

Still here? What, you don't want your poker score to go up?

If you want to get better at poker, then you have to get better at stopping. If you want to get better at stopping, then you have to practice stopping. Here's how. Take something you are doing, anytime, anywhere, and stop doing it, for no reason.

For instance, let's say you are walking. And then all of a sudden you stop walking. Technically, that would be stopping walking. But if the reason you stopped walking is because you arrived at a destination, well, sorry, that's not good enough. In order for your stopping to count as stopping, it has to be done intentionally intentionlessly. That's right. I said you must stop on purpose, but with no purpose. And if none of this makes sense to you, that's only because you haven't started stopping yet.

Okay, let's try something. A practice stop. I'll do it with you. Here's what you do. Close your eyes. Wait. Not yet. First you have to finish reading the instructions. Okay. On the count of three, I want you to close your eyes, close your lips, take your mouse hand off your mouse, take your other hand off whatever it is on, put both hands in your lap, and inhale, then exhale, and keep track of your breathing for three breaths. Think of this as a gift from you to you. Okay. On the count of three, we are going to stop and count to three. Here we go.

One …

Two …

Three.

Nice.

Okay, where were we?

What's that? You want me to go back to the part about getting better at poker and explain just what the hell I am really getting at here? Alright alright, you deserve that much I suppose, whether or not you did the stopping thing.

The surest way to get better at poker is to get better at everything and have poker rise with the tide. Let's say you wanted to get better at listening. Or you wanted to get better at not getting upset. Or let's say you wanted to get better at knowing what to do when you get checkraised on the turn. What gets in the way of your listening? Your thoughts do. Why do you get upset? Because you think thoughts that are upsetting. Why do you lose focus at the poker table? Because your thoughts are streaming by, taking you with them, into the past and future.

The thing to do is to learn how to stop your thoughtless thinking, whenever you want to, in order to clear room for something better. If you want to be as good as you can be at poker, you need a mind that is so strong it can stop itself.

Wanna know how to get one? It's real simple. And real hard. You have to think of your mind as a muscle, and then put it through resistance training, over and over, like at the gym. Let's try that beginner's exercise I showed you. Okay, here we go. Hands in lap. Mouth closed. Eyes closed. Three breaths. Ready. Go.

At this point, all readers of this article can be broken into two groups. Those who did the stopping, and those who didn't. I have a closing message for each.

To those who did not stop, it's okay. You will have infinite opportunities to start stopping.

To those who did stop, you really do deserve something special, especially if it was your first time. So I am going to give you a very, very valuable reward. It comes in the form of another challenge.

Betcha can't do it again.

Nice hand, sir. Nice hand.

Looking for Advice

2006-04-02T15:31:00.000-04:00

Yeah, I'm usually the guy giving advice, but now I'm asking for my readers out there in the blogosphere for some advice. Mostly you folks out there with kids, young ones especially.

How do you handle the whole work-home-poker paradigm? As many of you know, I'm a pharmacist, I work between 8-12 hours daily, and with the soon-to-be-arriving little one at home, I'm frankly worried about not only normalcy at home being flushed down the toilet, but also my burgeoning poker career as well. I'm prepared to make sacrifices, and I don't have a problem with that. Heaven knows, I love this little girl so damn much, and she's not even here yet.

But how do you balance it all? I'd like to get in 500-1000 hands a week, go to work, take part in my child's life, and be a good husband all at the same time. Should I just plan on forsaking sleep until my child turns 3, or is there a better strategy?

I've been reading CC's Quest of a Closet Poker Player very intently, especially because it seems a ton like my life right now with the Mrs, not to mention the fact that he's putting out the flat-out best stuff I've read in years over there.

You see, I'm a hyper-competitive person by nature. It's why I have had to train myself to not take bad beats so badly. It's why I don't just want to be a good player--I want to be among the best LHE players on the planet. It's why being a good father and husband isn't good enough for me. I want to be Super Dad...

Is it really possible? I see guys like Joe Speaker who have been through hell and back and who still manage to be a great father, poker player, and have a damn good time all at the same time. There are others out there--we all know who they are. Am I just afraid that I can't balance it all? Or is it something that works out just so long as you work at it every day?

Being a first-time father is one of the most frightening things I can imagine. I'm frightened that I won't be as good a father as I want to be, worried that I'm too selfish and set in my ways to be the father that my daughter needs me to be, worried that my life will change in ways I just don't want, worried that there's just so damn much bad out there in the world, and worried about how I can protect my family from it all. Then, there's poker. How do you all do it?

Thanks for listening, and I appreciate any advice out there...

Wow--It's Been Almost Two Weeks...

2006-04-01T15:29:00.000-05:00

...and life couldn't be busier for the Shark. The remodel of the basement into a family room is finally complete, the former-office-turned-baby's room is complete. Now, we're clearing stuff out of the house, removing all the tools back to my brother-in-law(and contractor)'s workshop, and getting all the last minute preps ready for our new arrival's arrival.

Can you believe I've played maybe 50 hands of poker in 2 weeks? And in one of them, I was in the BB with K2s, the button raised, I defended and flopped a flush draw, raised and called a 3-bet, then proceeded to suck out a flush on the turn against 4 players. One guy at the table in particular proceeded to call me an idiot donkey bastard, etc., etc., etc. for about the next 6 hands, one of which he called down with his pocket 2's against me because he KNEW I was an idiot donkey who was probably bluffing. Whoops. Turned over KK.

Anyway, this is more of a post letting my two loyal readers know that I'm not actually dead. I am alive, and I will be playing again soon, but now, I'll be playing on my brand spanking new Dell 2001FP. Got it from Dell for $369 (gotta love coupons and Slickdeals.net), and if you don't have one, it's a multi-tablers DREAM. 1600x1200 resolution (so you can play 4 tables simultaneously without overlap), and it just KICKS ASS.

Check out the banners in the sidebar--go support PokerSourceOnline, they're good people, and of course, play at Full Tilt Poker--bonus code Pokershark.

Enjoy April--my March review post will be up as soon as I can get to do it!

You Know, Dutch May Be On to Something...

2006-03-19T08:22:00.000-05:00

A lot has been said in the poker world about Dutch Boyd, good, bad, and ugly, but I'm not one to really judge anyone based on things I wasn't involved with. Anyhoo, he posted something on his blog last week that is some truly great stuff about making money and beating this damn game:

A lot of people on this thread have looked at a few things I said in interviews and on the site and somehow came to the conclusion that I don't think poker is beatable. I've never said that. I know for a fact that poker is beatable. I've sustained myself just on poker for the last five years. I do think anybody trying to beat this game for a living, though, is doing themselves a huge disservice if they are playing small and medium stakes in live casinos.

Here are a couple interesting things to think about :

1) CardPlayer had a survey a few years ago where they asked readers whether they were up or down overall. If I remember right, only 20% of readers responded that they were down... 25% were beating the game and 55% were breaking even. Poker is a great game like that because it is SOOOO easy to trick yourself into thinking you're winning. A lot of times I'll catch myself after a losing session excusing the loss.

"Well, if those Kings had held up, I'd be winning for the session... so I'm not really down. Plus I got $50 in the mail for my birthday from my uncle... so really, I'm up for the day."

2) There was an anthropology book written about poker back in the 70s by a guy named David Hayano. He broke down four different types of "professional" poker players. These types were all players who were trying to make their money exclusively by poker. He found that most "pro" players drift back and forth between real jobs and poker because they would continue to go broke. That doesn't necessarily mean that most of these pros this guy studied were losing players... it does mean, though, that they weren't making enough at poker to sustain themselves.

3) A few people have talked about how the stakes effect the beatability of the game. I don't think there is any player out there who could consistently beat a 2/4 limit game in California for anything over minimum wage. In California, they take a drop instead of a rake... so the house takes $3 out of every hand regardless of how big the pot gets. The rake ends up being a lot higher than 10% of the pot. Then you add in the dealer tokes. Bottom line is when I was propping the games in San Jose, none of the props were beating the 2/4 game. The 3/6 game is where it started getting beatable for most of us... but not for a lot. Online, however a 2/4 game is quite beatable. The rake structure is different and you don't have to worry about dealer tokes. The percentage of players who beat the 2/4 limit games online, though, is lower than the percentage of players who beat the 20/40 limit games online. The reason for this is NOT because the players at the lower limit games play too fishy and your aces are more likely to get cracked. The reason is because the rake paid is a smaller percentage of each pot, of each big blind, and of each average buyin... which leaves more money on the table to be thrown around between the winning players.

4) After spending years making my money playing poker, I can say definitively that the best way to make money for a medium stakes player (anybody playing less than 100-200 limit) is multi-tabling the limit games online. There are hundreds of online players making six-figure a year incomes and a handful of players making seven. I personally have come to the conclusion that limit holdem games is the way to go... sit-n-gos, tournaments, nl games, non-holdem games... they are all beatable. But they aren't beatable for as much as the boring but trusty limit holdem game.

5) If you are a good limit holdem player, you'll win around 60% of your sessions. Let's suppose you're like me, though, and only win about 55% of your sessions. That means the chances of any one session being a losing session is 45%, the chances of any two sessions both being losers is .45 x .45. Stay with me now... this is going somewhere. The chances of any four sessions all being losing sessions is .45 x .45 x .45 x .45 = roughly 4%. What I take this to mean is that if you have four sessions in a row where you lose, it is much more likely that you are a playing with a negative ev than that you are just getting unlucky. Going even further with this... if you put in a solid week of online limit play and multitable, it's not that hard to get in 5 or 6 thousand hands a week. This is the equivilent of a month's worth of live play. Being positive after a 5000 hand week for a winning player is a lot more likely than being positive after a single session... I'd estimate somewhere in the 80 - 90 % range. If you have two weeks back to back that you're down even though you've gotten in > 5000 hands, the sad truth is it is statistically improbable that you are just on a bad run. You are much more likely a losing poker player.

Thanks, Dutch--great stuff...

A Follow Up to the Treatise on Aggression

2006-03-16T22:34:00.000-05:00

It's obviously required reading to read my prior post to understand what I'm about to type. I got commentary on forums, and in my inbox about the last post varying from intense praise at capturing the nature of aggression in Limit Holdem to commentary saying that I was a chip-spewing maniac fool.

This may help those people understand why I play the way I do...

The example I used was that you have AK in MP. The player to your right limps, you raise, and the button, BB, and original limper all call. 4 players see the flop of J-7-3 rainbow. There are 8.5 SB in the pot. I bet or raised without hesitation in this hand. Why does this work for me?

I am a tight player, VP$IP around 16-17%, and a PFR around 9%. This goes a long way with players who understand table image. Regardless, this works for me because:

I play AK here the same way I play JJ.

I'll use a quote from a favorite movie of mine--

There's an important phrase that we use here, and think it's time that you all learned it. Act as if. You understand what that means? Act as if you are the fucking President of this firm. Act as if you got a 9" cock. Okay? Act as if.

This applies here because when you make this bet, you need to Act as if you have the stone cold nuts. Why? Because against non-calling station opponents, you DO have the stone cold nuts until something tells you otherwise. You will run into traps this way, but remember--most flops miss most hands. Over the long run, which is a damn long time, this play will yield you more pots than it will lose you.

I can't state this enough, however--do not try these moves against a player who will just call you down with middle or bottom pair or some other crap holding. If your read, either through observation or PokerAce HUD or GameTIme Plus, tells you that you are facing a guy who doesn't know where his fold button is, you need to be far more conservative. Aggressive, yet conservative. The farthest I would take this against a calling station or weak/tight player is to bet/raise the flop, bet the turn (and fold to most turn raises), and check-fold the river if you miss.

At first look, this looks weak/tight on my part, but remember, sometimes when you take this line you'll have AK, and other times you'll have JJ. It is important to this playing style that when you have a monster hand (like a set) and you take this direct line, that you show your hand down, even if your opponent folds. The next time, perhaps you'll have AK, and this monster you showed down will be in the opponent's mind, and he'll lay down a non-nut hand a little easier when he knows you straight play your monster hands. This also helps later on, as you decide to raise with T8s from UTG and everyone folds to you--remember, it's all about varying your play.

Maybe I made my last post more clear, maybe I made it more muddled. I just hope I made it useful for everyone.

Best of luck at the tables!

Limit Lessons--Aggression and Winning

2006-03-15T18:33:00.000-05:00

A lot of people on Bet the Pot ask in the LHE Forum about how they can improve their game and win more consistently. Then they post their stats, and invariably, their aggresion stats look like this:

Flop 27.19 raise+bet / 15.44 call = 1.76
Turn 40.66 raise+bet / 21.64 call = 1.88
River 35.23 raise+bet/ 26.42 call = 1.33

When I did the research to put together my auto-rate rules for PT, I discovered that your pre-flop hand selection doesn't really have anything to do with your winrate. Pre-flop in LHE is much like swinging the driver in golf. Some players who are bombers off the tee (like myself) can't break 90, while other players who hit shorter, but consistently shoot in the 70's. In golf, you drive for show and putt for dough. In Holdem, you play pre-flop for show, but your money is made entirely on how well you play after the flop hits the table. That is where aggression comes into play.

My research found the following (from my 1.5 million+ observed hand database):

Rating Category................................................BB/100

Ultra Aggressor (AF-T>2.00).........................3.59
Tight Aggressive (AF-T 1.5-2).......................1.98
Semi-Loose Aggressive...........................................1.97
Loose Aggressive................................................0.72
Tight Neutral (AF-T 1.2-1.5)........................0.45
Semi-Loose Neutral..............................................1.79
Loose Neutral...................................................0.71
Tight Passive (AF-T<1.2)...........................-3.70
Semi-Loose Passive.............................................-11.42
Loose Passive...................................................-14.41

These numbers are not by coincidence. Your post-flop play is by far the primary dictating factor in your ability to beat this game. Without aggression, you simply will NOT WIN LONG TERM. I had made the following assertion in the forum:

As in my autorate rule discussion in another stickied thread, aggression is the key to winning poker. Plain and simple. No doubt about it. Pre-flop aggression factor is absolutely worthless. Ignore it. Your VP$IP and PFR aren't bad, but if you play passive post-flop, you will lose. Raise with your made hands, raise with your draws. Raise more than call, Fold more than raise.

I actually got some negative feedback:

...but this sounds more like blind aggression than selective aggression. I can't imagine what would happen to my standard deviation (15BB/100hands) if I jammed even harder.

Any thoughts on standard deviation and where it outght to be in online Limit games?

I almost fell on the floor. Jennifer Harman, one of the best LHE players in the world, in her section in SuperSystem 2, basically advocates ruthless aggression in exactly the way I mentioned--bet your strong hands, bet your strong draws. I play a tighter style, so when I'm in a pot, especially when I've raised pre-flop, I'm firing away, because to me, my hand is best until something tells me (board, another player's action) tells me it's not. In LHE, you can't bet someone out of a pot, so the only way you can protect a hand (see previous post) is to bet-bet-bet it until the other player folds or you win at showdown.

The research, and not just my own, either, states clearly that without aggression, you will not win! You have very little chance to actually protect a hand, so playing aggressively is the only way you can consistently win in this game.

Consider this example. You're in MP, looking at AK. The player to your right limps, you raise, and the button, BB, and the limper call your raise. The flop comes a Jack-high rainbow, and the limper checks. What do you do here? Bet. No doubt about it. You have overcards, and unless you think you're drawing behind 2 pair, a set, or a straight or flush draw (and your reads should give you an idea here), you need to bet. The only information you've given the opposition is that you have a strong hand pre-flop--you've raised. Maintain the strength. A bet tells them that you're not afraid of the Jack, or any other card on that flop. Many players will put you on QQ, KK, or AA and dump the hand. Others will call the bet and potentially give you a free card on the turn/river. This is clearly +EV.

Change the example slightly. The pre-flop action is the same, only the limper bets. What do you do now? You RAISE. Why? You will likely limit the field and make it a heads-up situation on the turn and river. Also, you are basically tossing in a feeler to see how serious he is about continuing with this hand. If he has Jack-rag, he's gotta think (if he's not a calling station) that he's beat here 8 ways to Sunday, and that the WORST you have is AJ, while you could have a set, QQ, KK, or AA. The only situations you're worrying about (and this is again where reads come into play) is if he has a hand like KJ, since that essentially nullifies 3 of your outs. If you're sure he doesn't have KJ, AJ, or a set or 2 pair (in which case you're screwed), this play works fantastically. You have a minimum of 6 good outs and you have him playing defense the rest of the way. He goes passive, and while remembering that you can't make him fold if you don't bet, you now have the mental edge in the hand to catch your outs, make him fold, or perhaps even win with your AK unimproved.

This is how aggression works in your favor. In the above example, if he has middle or bottom pair, your raise tells him that his middle/bottom pair just CAN'T be good. Most times, he'll check the turn, and your bet will many times force him to fold. The only issue is if he has a top pair hand or better. When combined with the fact that most flops miss most hands, it is fairly clear that this strategy has a positive expectation.

Here's the caveat--Don't ever try to semi-bluff/bluff the calling stations. You will lose if you don't catch. Frequently. This is where PokerTracker and PokerAce HUD come into play. If you're not playing with these tools on your side, you're losing money. Period. Much of poker is reading people, reading hands. Online, it's much harder to do this, so programs like PAHud and PT get you the information you'd have if you were playing live.

If you're still not believing that the above strategy has a positive expectation, consider this:

You have AK, the limper has JT. The flop is J-7-3 rainbow. There is no doubt that you're at least temporarily behind here, right? There are 13 SB in the pot on the flop, and the limper leads out for a bet. With 14 SB in the pot, you can call with 14-to-1 odds to see a turn card. If the turn card is a blank (or otherwise doesn't help you), you can dump it, right?

Wrong. Same idea. With 14 SB in the pot, you RAISE. Players downstream of you now have to call 2 bets to win 14 (7-to-1 odds). If they don't have a top pair hand or better, calling for them is a mistake. They can figure that they're behind at least one hand (the original limper/bettor), and most likely TWO hands, since the first bet didn't even faze you and you raised. They both fold, bringing the action back to the limper/bettor. He called a pre-flop raise, and he has just been raised by a strong hand (indicated by the PFR) after he led. He's getting 16-to-1 to call here with his top pair, mediocre kicker hand, and he's figuring that now, he's behind, perhaps severely behind. He calls, and the turn brings:

Example 1: A jack, ten, or the board pairs (7 or 3). He leads out for 1 BB, and you figure you have to be behind. If your read is that he's bluffing, you call and hope to hit on the river, or you can fold--net loss 4 SB.

Example 2: An ace or king. He checks, you bet, he folds. You win 9 BB.
Example 2a: An ace or king. He checks, you bet, he calls, river a blank. Check-bet-fold. You win 10 BB.
Example 2b: An ace or king. He checks, you bet, he calls, river a blank. Check-bet-call. You win 11 BB.

Example 3: Anything else. He checks, you bet. If he doesn't improve, he almost has to fold, unless he puts you on the unimproved hand you have in front of you.

See where this helps? Even checking behind on the turn has value in that it gives you a free river card and allows you another chance to catch up. An ace or king may fall on the river, he may actually bet into you and you can raise and win a nice pot, or another blank can fall and you can drop the hand for little loss.

I hope this helps explain the importance of aggression in LHE, and if you take nothing else from this, take these two things:

Aggression is vital to success in Limit Hold'em. Without playing aggressively, you will almost certainly not be a long term winner.
Never try to semi-bluff or bluff a calling station. Before you try the plays listed here, make sure your read on the opponent is that he can lay down a non-nut or other mediocre holding. If you feel he can't lay it down, play aggressively, but don't try to overplay him.

Good luck at the tables, all.

Haven't Blogged in a Bit...

2006-03-10T09:52:00.000-05:00

And I feel guilty, really I do.

But I don't have a ton to say right now. I don't want to drop a strategy-type post when I'm in the middle of a downswing (currently not a big deal, but it still frustrates me) because I'm tending to hold on to missed draws too long, busted premium drawing hands (read: AK) too long. I don't think I have a lot of constructive advice to give at this point.

In the meantime, just as an FYI--Pokerstars is running a 20% deposit bonus for deposits up to $600--it's not a lot, I know, but considering that they're by far among the top two sites on the net, it's just more incentive to play there.

If you're not playing there, then go play at Full Tilt since between FTP and Stars, they're the only places you should be playing on the net. 100% deposit bonus up to $600, great software, great games, and don't forget--bonus code: Pokershark...

Enjoy...

Limit Lessons--Protecting Your Hand

2006-03-01T17:06:00.000-05:00

In No-Limit Holdem (NLHE), you can protect a vulnerable hand by betting larger amounts. However, in Limit Holdem (LHE), since bets are limited by the table, you have to work a little harder and a little longer to protect your vulnerable made hands--a little luck doesn't hurt either.

Miller, in Small Stakes Holdem writes,

"The most costly error that you can make is to fold a hand that has a
strong chance to win a large pot..."
"...most small stakes players rarely make this error. In a large
pot, most people instinctively see their decent hands and draws through to the
end. Only players who believe that making 'big laydowns' is the hallmark
of expert play routinely make this mistake. They are doomed to wonder why
they keep losing when they play so expertly."

My feelings on this are fairly well known, but in case you don't know them, here they are...When you have a made hand (like a flopped straight, for example), and you bet-bet-bet, and your opponent just does the old call-call-call until the river when a fourth spade hits and he wakes up and raises, believe me, you're beaten here way more than 9-out-of-10 and you can make a laydown. However, as the pots in today's loose, crappy games get larger and larger with respect to numbers of big bets in them, it becomes more and more profitable in the end to make that crying call just to see if your opponent is bluffing at it.

Anyhoo-- he continues on about protecting your hand, especially in large, multiway pots. The concept is to make players with weak hands (weaker than you, anyway) or draws make a decision between folding their hand, or making a call that could be unprofitable. He also mentions that in some situations, a check-raise will protect your hand when a simple bet will not.

By protecting your hand, we mean to bet/raise/check-raise when you have a made, yet vulnerable hand (top pair, etc) on a board with potential draws on it (flush/straight draws). The major difference that I will explain is in protecting your hand when heads-up versus protecting your hand when in a multi-way pot.

Protecting a Hand Heads-Up
You have QhJh. It's folded around to you, and you raise. Only the BB calls you, and the flop comes Q-T-3 with 2 diamonds. Unless the BB has a stronger Q, you clearly have the best hand here, but your hand is very vulnerable. With a potential straight draw and flush draw on the board, you could be in some trouble. The question now is, do you bet or check-raise? Here, the answer is obvious because if you check and the BB checks behind, you've given the BB a free card to beat you. You need to bet out and hope for the best. If the BB raises you, he is at least on a draw, and may already have you beat. If he flat calls, he's getting 5.5-to-1 on his call, and while you've built a pot for him to lose if he misses, in this situation, it's very hard to protect your hand. You only really have the ability to price out a gutshot draw or a weaker Q or 3. This is the quandry of LHE because the very hands you can price out are the very hands you WANT to stick around.

Protecting a Hand In a Multi-Way Pot
This is the situation where I completely disagree with Sklansky/Miller/Malmuth. Their point makes mathematical sense, but the thing that we all need to remember is that in a 10-handed game, if 4 players at the table understand the idea of pot odds, know how to calculate them, and know how that affects how they play their hand, you've got a table you need to get the hell away from. Miller, et al, say:

"Sometimes a flop raise will not protect your hand. When these situations occur, you should often just call on the flop. If the turn card is safe (boldface added), you plan to protect your hand with a bet or raise. This is especially true when the pot is large, and a lot of fourth street cards might cripple your hand.

He then cites an example where you have Tc8c in the BB. Two people limp, an MP player raises, the button calls, the SB folds, and you call. The flop is QhTh8s. You have a well-disguised big hand, but the flop is treacherous. With 10.5SB in the pot, you check, and it is checked to the raiser who leads out. Miller says that you should flat call. I can understand his reasoning, that a player on a draw would just call anyway, leading to greater pot-odds later for players to call. Also, a ton of turn cards can really put the screws to your hand. A Q, J, or 9 can cripple you, and any heart is also bad. He continues to say that you should call here, and check-raise with any safe turn card, while you can check-fold a scare card. His reasoning, while sound, doesn't always apply to a lot of internet small stakes games. In many situations, a call is seen as weakness, or drawing, a bet or raise is seen as strength, and a check-raise is seen as significant strength. I think this can be worked to your advantage here. He also says that you should wait for the turn to protect your hand if the pot is large, or the bet comes from your left.

It is well known that I am a hyper-aggressive player and that plays like the one Miller suggests are symptomatic in my game of the affliction "Fancy Play Syndrome," or FPS. I'm not sure I could slam on the brakes with even bottom two pair there, especially if I'm first to act. While it might not be correct within the theory of poker to bet out there, I don't think I'm confident enough to hold off for the turn to spring my trap. My goal there would be to bet to lead out on the flop, then either bet (if it's just called) or check-raise (if my flop bet is raised) any non-scare card on the turn.

The other example in SSHE that I completely disagree with is his last one. You have KK in MP, and two EP players limp, and the player to your right raises. You 3-bet, the button cold calls 3-bets, the blinds fold, and the limpers cold-call two more bets. The initial raiser caps, and everyone calls, yielding a 21.5 SB pot to the flop. First of all, I'm not sure I've ever seen 5 players to a capped flop above 3/6 at Stars (though I may be wrong), and whenever someone I have a decent read on caps pre-flop, I immediately think AA or KK, or at worst AK. This is read-dependent, obviously, and if a player is a complete chip-spewing LAG, I'd think other hands, but for the most part, a cap pre-flop means a big pocket pair.

To return to the example, you have KK, there a 5 players to the capped flop, and the flop comes Td-9h-5d. It is checked to the pre-flop capper, who bets. You raise. Again, here, I'd be thinking AA, but with 5 players in a capped flop, it's hard to say, and likely your KK is good against at least 4 of them. If my read is that the capper has AA, I'd probably just call him down. In this game, the read is that the capper is totally LAG, and that he'd do this with just about any two cards. If that is my read, I'm jamming this flop down his throat. Here, everyone calls, and the turn brings the 2s. It is now checked to you, and while I'd fear a check-raise if I felt the capper had AA, I'd still be confident enough to fire another bet here. Again, everyone calls. The flop is the 8s, and it is checked to you again. You fire, and the button raises. Everyone folds to you and you make a crying call to see his J7 for a rivered gutshot straight. First off, Miller acknowledges this guy's terrible pre-flop play. No, he's a friggin' donkey. Point blank-awful. He then contends that the button played the hand correctly after his terrible pre-flop play. He got 12.25-to-1 odds to hit his 11-to-1 shot on the flop. He got 16-to-1 on the turn with an 11-to-1 shot, and he hit his hand on the river. His contention is that you, if you wait until the turn to check-raise, are foregoing a small advantage on the flop to get a larger advantage on the turn. While it is mathematically right, I honestly believe that the majority of games at the 3/6 level and higher on the internet (especially at Stars and Full Tilt Poker--bonus code Pokershark :-) are relatively tight enough that you'd never see 5 to a capped pre-flop pot and that this is a bad example.

To summarize my points, many players are more loath to call a BB on the turn than to call a SB on the flop. Miller's idea makes sense given that. However, to pass up a chance to price even one opponent out of the picture is a very risky proposition, and one that should rarely be done. To protect your hand, bet early and often, and force as many to pay the price to draw on you.

Live Blogging the WWdN Thursday Special!!

2006-02-24T00:47:00.000-05:00

Decided to play with the bloggers in the latest WWdN Tourney:

11:41 pm (T2000, 9th place): I love folding. Folding is so good, especially when you're getting dealt crap.

11:42 pm (T2000): K5s. Great.

11:44 pm (T1980): 74o. Whoopie.

11:46 pm (T1980): AA. Shit. Everybody's folding. If you get AA and nobody calls, does anybody give a damn? One caller, whoopie. Small pot is better than nothing.

11:50 pm (T2260): Why do I call raises with A4s?

11:56 pm (T2065): Folding is so much fun...

11:59 pm (T2065): L0K1 just bluffed with the hammer and hit. I dumped AT pre-flop to the raise and the flop, predictably, came 3-A-3. Damnit.

12:01 am (T2065): AKs on a A-high flop=big win. Up to T3340 and 4th place for me...

12:07 am (T3340): Stole blinds with KJs

12:08 am (T3340): Pastamancer cracked my QQ with 88 on an 8-high flop. He led into me and I put him all in--when he flopped top set. Brilliant play by me...not.

12:10 am (T1902): Moved to another table. Picked up 66 and dumped it on a K-high flop. Don't know anybody here. Glancing over at the leaderboard, Waffles is in 4th, Wes (boobie lover) is in 8th. Bloggers represent.

12:14 am (T1677): KK--on an all diamond flop. I push, opponent (jg-2323) folds. Back in business.

12:15 am (T2152): My wife thinks it's funny to tickle me while I play...

12:17 am (T2152): Just got moved to Waffles' table. Uh oh.

12:22 am (T2002): Folding again, so much fun.

12:27 am (T1652): Called the BB's raise with QT, flop came A-T-x. Thought about a raise, dumped it. SB showed AQ. Good fold.

12:28 am (T1552): Limped with 44, folded on a K-high flop, with three overcards to my shitty pair.

12:29 am (T1552): Stole blinds with 77.

Break time. I hear that Wil is still in at Commerce, and holding his own in 20th or so place. Go, dude. Meanwhile, I'm in 17th place of 22 at the break. Joanne, April, and Wes are out. Waffle's in 9th place, Iggy is in 16th place. Not sure about the others--don't know all the screen names.

12:36 am (T1777): Stole blinds with the Hammer. I get NO reaction.

12:38 am (T1277): Had JJ cracked by QJ with a Q on the flop. Grrr. Just folded 66 to an all-in that would've rivered a straight. No thank you. 16th place out of 19, and I don't think I've played poorly.

12:42 am (T102): Just had my QK and pair of Q's cracked by an ace on the river. This game can suck sometimes. Now all in with 88. Cracked by T3o. Fantastic. Oh well, out in 19th place. Good luck all.

The "Back to the Tables" Update

2006-02-23T20:00:00.000-05:00

At the expense of jinxing myself, I've been running phenomenally well at the 3/6 games on Stars. Well enough that I feel like I should stay here longer than I expected. I'm playing the style of poker that made me successful for so long last year:

Over 1931 hands, I had a VP$IP of 15.95%, PFR of 9.17%, and an aggression factor of 3.41. I've won an obnoxious number of 5.87 BB/100 hands for a total win of $708.25. My win rate currently is even higher than it was last year. I can't even speak for what I'm doing so differently, but all I know is that I'm winning at a great rate.

All this in preparation for another trip to Atlantic City. All I can hope for is for the winning ways to continue there.

Are You Using PokerAce HUD?

2006-02-15T18:05:00.000-05:00

Well damnit, you should (at least if you want to make money). And if you're not already using PokerTracker, please look for me online and sit at my table. I could use a new monitor, and you could just be the generous soul that buys it for me...

Kuso over at Bet the Pot (IMHO the best poker forum on the internet) told me about two stats that PokerAce HUD calculates for you based on the traditional PokerTracker numbers. This awesome program that brought you things like Aggression Frequency and the like now bring you...

Won at Showdown When Raising Turn/River (W$SDwRT/R)

It's configurable in the pop-up stats portion of the program (see Josh's excellent tutorial for more info on the stats) or as a permanent HUD stat. I use a very minimalist or GT+ reminiscent HUD display, leaving only VP$IP, PFR, and AF-Total visible. My pop up stats, which make the whole thing less busy and intimidating by staying hidden until I want them, paint the rest of the picture. Let's set the scene:

I'm in the BB, and I look down at 96s in diamonds. We get a single limper and the LAG cutoff player raises. Um, no sir, you DON'T steal MY blind. The button calls, I call, and the limper calls, so 4 of us see a flop of Qh,9c,6s.

I love the rainbow, and with even bottom two pair, I'm WAY ahead here, but my hand is fragile. If anyone has a queen, they have outs to beat me, but they can't possibly see this coming. I check, and our original raiser leads out, and the trap is sprung. I check-raise him, and the button and the UTG limper both fold, so him and I go to the turn. The turn is the Kh, and I lead out. He raises me back. Hmmm. What am I drawing behind here? Could he have KK and I'm screwed? No--he would've 3-bet the flop. Does he have KQ? Possibly. Maybe he had AK and thought he just trumped my top pair.

That's where this stat comes in. With W$SD when Raising Turn (or River) is in your set of stats or pop-up, you can examine what this guy does with his turn raises. Is he protecting a fragile hand? Is he trying to value bet a flush draw? This stat can tell you, and may be one hell of a way of weeding out the weak/tight-tending players. If his number for this stat is >75-80%, he's raising generally with the best hand. If it's <50%, he's bluff raising, semi-bluff raising or protecting a draw enough to know that you can call this raise. The only problem I see with this stat is that it's not the most reliable when the player has fewer than say, 500 hands (or preferably even more) in your database.

I went into check-call mode, calling the turn raise, and I check called the river, the 7s, and he turned over Qs, Ks for the better two pair and the win.

I didn't have the stat turned on in my popup stats, and the read I had on him was that he had either AK, or Kx or hearts. My read was wrong, but I believe that having the stat available could have made the difference and maybe saved me a bet or two. In this case, it might not have helped because a concealed two pair is a relative monster in LHE, and I don't think that laying it down here is +EV. Even IF he has KQ, I still have 4 outs to fill up (not that it's really a possibility). The only way you're drawing truly dead here is if he has KK or QQ.

When you're configuring your HUD, just keep this information in mind. The turn, with it's doubled bet, seperates the men from the boys, and the information you gain by using this stat may make the difference between you winning bets, losing bets, or saving bets.

Remember, folks, Limit Holdem is a game of information, and the more information you have, the better prepared you are to make the correct decisions--and make money.

Thanks again to Kuso for bringing this to my attention!

Moving Right Along

2006-02-15T09:24:00.000-05:00

Today I caught the first cold deck I've had since I returned to LHE, and I won 2 showdowns in 117 hands this morning. Ick. That's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Three negative sessions in a row, 183 hands, -$207.00. Like I said, it happens, and while I'm not pissed like I would be normally, if I'd say it doesn't bother me or concern me, I'd be lying my ass off.

Overall, like I said, I'm not worried, but I think I'm glad I work the evening shift tonight...

That's it, no content. Maybe a strategy post tonight or tomorrow.

MID-DAY edit: Went back to another mini-session before I left the house. Yes, I am a gambooling addict. Anyhoo, cracked the table for $120 in about half an hour. Had a guy (hopefully on tilt) decide that I had raised pre-flop too many times, so he decided to three-bet me and call my cap pre-flop and cap it on the flop (Q-5-T rainbow) before he slowed down and called me down with his 85o. Shame for him I had QQ, eh? More of a shame that an offsuit T came on the turn and he was drawing dead...Yep, and he was still calling...

I will send out a strategy post, hopefully tonight, about a stat that I didn't know was in PokerAce HUD until a pretty damn smart guy over at BTP told me about it. I added it immediately, and when I'm done with you, all you LHE players will add it too.

Until later.

I'm Back....

2006-02-13T01:30:00.000-05:00

That's what a friggin blizzard will do for you. In all reality, I made the comeback on Thursday night, playing some PLO--I won about $100 playing an uber-LAG style, then lost it all back. Oh, well. Bigger news for me is a return to PokerStars and my specialty, Limit Holdem. I've ground out some nice (albeit small) wins playing a couple short sessions. Tonight, I lost a couple hands where my AQ flopped TPTK and my opponent slowplayed KK masterfully and my JJ got outflopped and I couldn't let it go. That's attributable to some rust, methinks. I haven't really played LHE other than live (if you don't count the bonus chasing crap at the Cryptos) since November, so I suppose it's forgivable.

Now, what about the future? At the expense of sounding like a GA meeting gone amuck, I'm taking things one day at a time. I really get concerned with the long run, and whether playing poker recreationally, semi-pro, or whatever the hell you call what I'm doing is +EV in the long run. I'm going to be a father in 10 weeks or so, and many more important things are going to be taking up my time, and if there's one thing that I'm totally willing to sacrifice to get there, it's poker. I guess the problem for me is that I know I'm a good player, and that I'm passing up opportunities to make some decent side money, but in that sense, what is poker doing for me, other than providing me with an obsession/addiction to take up time that I will need to spend on my daughter?

When I first made the decision in October to begin referring to myself as semi-pro, I had started the discussion off both here and over at Bet-the-Pot's forums by asking, "What is my desired endpoint with poker?" Do I want to become a pro? No. The variance alone would put me in the booby hatch. Do I want to continuously move up? No, because eventually, I'd be playing 30/60 with $2000 in front of me, and my wife would either a) leave me, or b) have me committed. It makes her cringe to see me play 5/10 with $200 in front of me. Just glad she never watched me play 15/30. I just want it to be a profitable hobby. The question I have is basically when does a hobby begin to border on obsession? I never envisioned myself playing 5/10 or higher, or playing 10 hours a week or more. I know that's nothing compared to many of you out there, but for me, that's a great deal. Part of my deal with the wife about playing online poker was that I wouldn't let get to the point where it started to control me. I didn't play for a week plus, and it felt good, but something drew me back to the virtual felt. I'd like to think it's my competitive spirit, but part of me wonders if it's addiction or obsession, neither of which is very good.

Anyway, like I said, for now it's just one day at a time, and I'll see you at the tables!

Five Days In...

2006-02-07T22:29:00.000-05:00

...to my self-imposed poker break, and it feels really good, actually. I haven't even had the desire to play, except when I saw the information about DADIII:

...but I don't think I'm going to play in that either. I'm reading Harrington on Holdem Volume 2, and re-reading Small Stakes Holdem, and I hope to return with a nice, clear mind. Clear of all the bad luck, clear of all the beats, clear of all the donkeydom, and with a totally fresh start. This is therapeutic for me, and it's funny, but this might actually be the longest I've gone without playing poker other than the wedding/honeymoon period.

It actually feels good.

But don't worry, I'll be back before you know it. I'll just be back when I'm ready.

Wil Wheaton's Running Bad, Too...

2006-02-03T15:46:00.000-05:00

Was perusing on Bloglines today, and what do I see, but Wil Wheaton's blog. And to be honest, he's really the first big-name guy to say that he's been running especially shitty. And yes, I know that other bloggers have joined the chorus, but it's somewhat therapeutic to see a big guy whining about the bad beats and Monsters Under the Bed too...

After suffering yet another SNG loss last night, I went over my log book. I wasn't surprised to discover that, since November of last year, I'm deeply in the red. In fact, "deeply" doesn't begin to describe it. "Dangerously" is more like it.
I examined my plays, reviewed my histories and fliped through the books and blog posts that have helped me get control over, and gain confidence in my game. I came to the conclusion that, yes, I don't suck at poker. I also came to the conclusion that, yes, we want bad players to make bad calls, but I'm also losing more money from bad players who are suckng out on me than I win when they miss. Other than winning an FPP satellite for the $750 Guarantee at PokerStars last month, I am a total loser right now. Have you ever felt like a total loser? Have you ever felt like the flop of life just keeps on missing you, and that your draws never get there? That's me, man, and it sucks.
I used to say that acting is like tournament poker: you have to outlast a huge field to get close to the money, and once you get that close, you have to get incredibly lucky to survive the bubble. It doesn't matter how good you are, it doesn't matter how well you play, if you make one mistake, or take one bad beat, you can be out. At least in tournament poker, more than one person makes the money. Poker is an incredible metaphor for all sorts of things in life, and right now it's a perfect metaphor for so many things in my life, it's scary, and the auditions are the least of it. I'm sick and tired of losing, but more importantly, I'm sick and tired of feeling like a loser, in too many ways to count.When I get all the money in as a dominating favorite (AK vs. AQ, JJ vs TT, or my personal favorite KK vs T6o. Nice hand sir, good call) I am a consistent loser. More often than not, I've found myself blowing up at my computer, walking around my block to settle down, and wondering the whole time why I even bothered to put the time and effort into learning how to play, when all of my apparently "correct" decisions continue to fail to pay off. I fold Q6o to a raise and a re-raise? Of course the flop comes A66. I fold 55 to a raise and a push? Of course the raiser has AT, the pusher has 33, and there's a 5 on the flop. I push on a king-high flop with aces, you know the guy with KJ is calling me, so he can turn a jack and bust me. Every. Single. Fucking. TIme. I know that I should be happy with making correct plays, based upon incomplete information. Well, last time I checked, you couldn't buy into games with happy points, and you can't cash them out, either.
Yes, I know that these idiots should be EV for us, but I can't afford to keep giving them the chance. My bankroll has dropped by almost 75% since this seemingly never-ending slide began, and while I'll eventually be able to get that money back one way or another, something even more serious is weighing on my game: I'm starting to hate poker because it isn't fun. I know we tell our kids that playing games should be done for the fun of playing, and that winning isn't all that important, but let's be honest: if you lost every single game you played in, and it was costing you money every time, wouldn't you want to spend your money on something that at least made you happy? I'll continue to host and play in the WWdN weekly tourneys at PokerStars, because the social interaction with people who I consider kindred spirits and friends is completely worth the buy-in, but I'm walking away from everything else, for at least the near future. I'm going to read (non-poker) books, and play some regular games, like Talisman and Dungeon with my kids. I'm going to walk my dogs, train for the San Diego Marathon, and finish my next book. I may even get around to redesigning and repairing my blog.

Great stuff, Wil, and I'm right there with you. I don't know if I have the intestinal fortitude to take an extended break from the game, but here's to at least a while away from playing the game I hate to love...Expect strategy-type posts, but I think I need a couple weeks off from playing to clear my head of all the negativity.

Like Wil, I know I don't suck at this game. Between the run of second-best hands I've had and the suckouts, I just know that I'm losing money by not playing poorly. I'm starting to lose money by playing afraid. That's a bad way to be. So, I'm going to recharge and re-learn by teaching for a while. You know the line: Those who can, do, and those who can't, teach... As someone who has taught (and still does occasionally for different projects), I find that offensive, but you know what? Right now, I just can't.

Monsters Under the Bed, Part Deux...

2006-02-02T17:27:00.000-05:00

Dropped a buy-in at the $50 NL today--how I did it is stupefying. I lost the buy-in with 3 hands. Watch the carnage and see why I get nervous about the old MutB...

Hand 1: KJs on the button. I raise to $2, flop is K-J-2. I lead out for a half-pot bet. UTG opponent calls. Turn brings an ace. I lead for the pot, he pushes his remaining $12 into the pot, I insta-call, and he shows me 22. My two pair is no goot.

Hand 2: QQ in EP. I raise to $2 (my standard pre-flop raise), and get only the button to call. Flop is 4-A-Q. I lead out for half the pot, he pushes his stack all-in and shows me AA. My set of Q's no goot.

Hand 3: KK in MP1. I raise to $2 with only $6 in front of me, get re-raised all-in by the button, call and he shows me AA. My KK no goot.

Yes, Virginia, there are monsters under the bed sometimes.

Patience in No-Limit Holdem

2006-01-30T17:57:00.000-05:00

"No-Limit Poker is hours of utter boredom mixed with moments of sheer terror.

No-Limit Holdem is a game of patience. Patience in waiting for the right hand. Patience in waiting for the right board. Patience in waiting for the right time to make the right move. It's part of my problem with this damn game...

Said, woman, take it slow
It'll work itself out fine
All we need is just a little patience
Said, sugar, make it slow
And we come together fine
All we need is just a little patience
(patience)
Mm, yeah

When you play limit holdem, aggression is king, just as it is in NL. In limit, you value bet every last miniscule edge of equity. It's a game where someone like me (a hyper aggressive type) can just beat the opposition into submission, beat them (usually) to the point where they just can't imagine calling off another $20 to try and catch a 3-outer (even though the less-evolved actually do that--and have the balls to make their hand). NL is a game based more on patience, and yes, getting your money in with the best of it.

I been walking the streets at night
just tryin' to get it right
hard to see with so many around
you know I don't like
being stuck in the crowd
and the streets don't change
but baby the name
I ain't got time for the game...

The difference in NL is that there are so many more plays to make, so many more ways to bluff at something, so many more angles. Implied odds turn the game into a downstream thinking game, much like chess, whereas in LHE, many decisions are based on pot odds, then and there, with implied odds a distant second. I've come to realize that NLHE, while at it's basics is stupifyingly simple, is truly a game complex in both its many thought processes and it's many levels that those processes exist on.

It's not as simple as ABC. It's just not enough to make a move--you (as mentioned previously) have to be mindful of why you make the move, and of exactly what you hope to accomplish with said move downstream. Not just on the next street--on the next street, and even the next hand.

So, let's review. NLHE is a game where you can set up moves for a whole session with moves you make in one hand. It's a game where you not only need to master the thought of what's happening now, but what's going to happen 2 cards and 2 betting rounds from now. Add on top of that the whole fish factor, and...

Damn. This is a tough game.

Current State of the Shark:

Playing somewhat scared. Not of losing bankroll, but of monsters under the bed. Usually a trip to the Taj tends to restore confidence in my game, but all it did for me was re-affirm that sometimes, yes, Virginia, there are indeed monsters under the bed. Big hairy ones, with scales, flippers, and for Chrissakes, green friggin teeth... As I mentioned in the trip report , it starts to suck when you think, "naah, he can't have _________ (insert suckass hand here)," but that little buzzer is going off, so you lay down your made hand to see that in fact, yes, he does have ________(insert same suckass hand here). How many players do you know that can lay down top set in LHE on the flop? All for an appropriate fear of monsters under the bed. It takes the fun out of the game when you just have that feeling that it just isn't your day--and it turns out to not be your day.

I know it's just a correction or something like that, but it seems like playing scared makes me less effective of a player (really--no shit), and it makes me not enjoy the game I have come to love.

Remember, though, in the end, it's just poker.

Continuation Bets in No-Limit Holdem

2006-01-27T16:05:00.000-05:00

Picture the scene. You're in late position, 2 off the button, and you look at Ace-King in clubs. Woohoo! You raise the standard raise, 6 times the big blind and get two callers, one a prior limper, and the big blind.

The flop comes Queen-high, with no clubs. What next? You missed the flop. Great. The BB checks, and the action is to you. What now?

You fire out a continuation bet. You have a strong hand, one which still may be the best hand, and now, you have to defend it, along with the money you've already put into the pot. The continuation bet is something that is vital to success in no-limit holdem, as is the way to play against or defend against it.

Today, I was playing $50NL at Full Tilt and I had a real good one on my hands. A player two to my right who consistently called my pre-flop raises and folded to my continuation bets. He was a veritable ATM. I'd have AK on a Q-7-4 flop, fire out a 2/3 pot bet and his hand would hit the muck before you could blink. Another hand, I'd have QJ, on an ace-high flop, and I'd fire a 3/4-pot continuation bet and watch him fold. I stole about six small pots off him by doing this (which was of course, a by-product of my table image, and 18% VP$IP and 14% PFR at the table), and I could imagine him steaming at his keyboard as small pot (~$5) after small pot slid over to me. So, with about $13 left in front of him, he decided to take a stand. I raised to $2 on the button, as I was prone to do, and he called from MP, leaving us heads-up on the flop that brought K-6-2. I fired out my nice standard $3.50 bet into a $5 pot, and he immediately pushed all in. I insta-called and flipped over my KK, and he flipped J6o. He was drawing dead to running 6's, and he couldn't do anything about it. Why did this happen? Because he didn't understand the idea of a continuation bet, and what to do with it.

In most standard (not-too-loose, not-too-tight) games, there is an automatic tendency among many players to "check to the raisor," especially pre-flop. In fact, in many cardrooms, you'll catch many players, especially old-timers actually saying, "check to the raisor." When you're the raisor, this is like music to your ears. You're essentially getting a free crack at the pot, which especially if you're heads-up, will end up in your chipstack far more often than not.

Continuation Bet as Semi-Bluff

Pre-Flop: You get AJs on the button and you open-raise. Why? Because you have a strong hand, you wish to eliminate weaker hands, and you want to build a pot with players you may have dominated. Your standard raise (game and table-texture dependent) is fine here. The BB calls, as does an EP limper.

Flop: Q-4-6 rainbow. BB checks, EP checks, and with the action to you, you bet 3/4 pot. Why? You don't have a made hand, but the two limpers are showing weakness by checking to you. You have nothing to slow play, so the only appropriate action is to bet. You want to semi-bluff here that you caught a piece of the flop, and drive out anyone who caught, say, middle pair, and want to try their luck to catch two pair or trips. The size of your continuation bet should vary by table texture (see Phil Gordon's excellent Little Green Book for more on this) and it should be enough that most players won't have odds to draw to the next street, and enough still that a check-raise would have to be significant enough that you absolutely know you're beaten. Many recommend varying between 2/3 times the pot and 1 1/2 times the pot.

In this situation, you know that anyone who calls your bet is either a) drawing, b) sitting with a queen in their hand, or c) stupid. Anyone who raises your bet more than a min-raise (which, even though some advocate that min-raise=monster, I have NO respect for) is either trying to bluff you off YOUR pot, or has a significant holding themselves, whether a made hand or a big draw.

Therefore, this bet accomplishes many things. Frequently, you will win the pot immediately. Other times, you will have enough information to make a nice laydown, and other times, you will build a nice pot for you to win later.

Continuation Bet as Punctuation Mark

New hand. You look down at QQ on the button. You make a standard raise, two players call, and the flop comes A-Q-3 rainbow. Many players would slowplay this, but I'll give the argument against it. When a table knows you'll fire out a continuation bet, they're more likely to play along with mediocre (or just second best) holdings. Here is a perfect example. People love to limp-call with AQ, Ax suited, KQ, things like that, particularly at lower limits like $25 and $50 NL.

If it's checked to you, believe that they themselves (or at least one of them) are waiting for your continuation bet. Fire out a low-end bet (2/3 the size of the pot), and wait for the check-raise to come.

Being consistent with the contination bet (except of course when it's obvious you're beat or you sense weakness) will help you both in the current pot and in future pots down the road.

A Life Changing Picture

2006-01-26T13:40:00.000-05:00

No poker content here. We got our 3-D Ultrasound done, and here's my daughter, still in the womb. I'll get to meet you soon, honey. Daddy loves you.

Movin' On Up

2006-01-26T06:22:00.000-05:00

You know, I gave a lot of thought to poker Tuesday night, and yesterday, and last night. So when my wife woke me up last night (pregnancy can be a real pain in the ass), I fired up Full Tilt and played some $50 NL. After playing almost 10000 hands of $25 NL, I'm only at a meager 1.47 BB/100. I know I'm a better player than that, so hey, let's move up a little and see if some of the problem is that I'm not taking the stakes seriously enough.

Many players will tell you that once you've been at a level, it's difficult to move down again significantly. If you're used to playing 10/20 LHE and playing for $300 pots, then believe me, a $20 pot at the 25s is like, well, (in the words of Josh Arieh) "tiddlywinks." Maybe some of the problem is that I've grown complacent with stakes, money, anything.

Well, on my seventh hand of $50 NL, I dropped a stack. I looked down at AK of hearts in the BB. My eventual opponent was in MP, and he min-raised to a dollar. Now, you all are well aware of how I feel about min-raises, so of course, I jack him up to $3. He re-raises me to $7.50, and I think. Hmmm. This guy is in my DB from $25 NL with a VP$IP of 72% and a PFR of 31%. His raise and re-raise means exactly what? To me, his raise and re-raise mean he has exactly two cards in front of him. So I bang him again, to $20. He then comes over the top and goes all-in for his $48 stack. Whoops. Phil Gordon says that the 4th raise means aces. What the hell does the 5th raise mean? I figure I'm only a significant dog to AA or KK, so I call. He flips over Aces. Whoops. To kick me in the junk one last time, he rivered a flush. Hey, he played a great hand.

RE-LOAD!

To make a long story short, that was by far the low point of my night. I finished up in excess of two buy-ins, once by cracking limp-called aces pre-flop with QT on an 8-9-J flop, and so-on...

It feels good to be on the plus side of the ledger again.

Taj Trip Report

2006-01-25T09:41:00.000-05:00

Another Tuesday off, another trip to the Taj. It's been a while, but I just wasn't prepared for what I faced. Did you ever have a day where you just couldn't get rolling? That was me yesterday. I sat at the table with Domenic and promptly won 3 pots in 4 hands. I was up only about $40, because the table was rather tight, but still, up is up.

Most players never remember the large pots they've won, but they can remember the bad beats in vivid detail...

The pendulum swung both ways yesterday, with me slapping a rough one on Domenic with 96s taking down his AQs with an 9-A-6 flop, yet I caught two of the toughest BACK-TO-BACK.

First hand, I look down to see A9 of hearts in MP. I raise it and get 3 callers (typical for an AC 3/6 game). I flop TPTK with a 9-5-2 flop, with 2 hearts. I lead out, same 3 call, turn card is a non-heart 4, I lead out, one guy calls. River brings the 7 of clubs, and I lead, and this moron RAISES? I call and he turns over a suited hammer in diamonds. Yes, 72s. He called my pre-flop raise COLD with 72s. Called my flop bet with a pair of deuces, 7 kicker. Called my turn bet with the same. He says, "Wow. 4 hours and $400--I finally win a pot." I actually start to steam, and say, "Well, you know, sir, maybe if you don't play garbage like 72s, you wouldn't be down $400." He gets up to go to the bathroom. Throughout my observation that day, if he flopped ANY pair, ANY draw, he would call to the river. A truly horrible player.

NEXT HAND, still MP, I look down at pocket kings. I raise, get 2 callers. Flop is 8-2-5. I lead, get called. Turn is an 8. I lead, get called. River is a J. I lead, opponent raises, I call, he turns over Q8. I literally spike my kings across the table, gather my chips and cash out, down $128. I was on irreversible tilt.

I really didn't handle it appropriately, but I mean, this was ridiculous. I actually laid down top set during the session, and second set as well, because one donkey at our table played any two suited and sucked out flushes TWICE. Two sets, two losses, but the salvaging fact of yesterday was that if I didn't make those laydowns, I'd have been down even more. I also laid down TPTK with AK on an A-3-5 flop. My opponent flipped over 42o for the flopped nut straight. If big laydowns are victories (and I believe them to be), I had a great day yesterday. Probably the greatest day ever by a player who lost 4.27 BB/hour. I laid down pocket jacks to a woman who had never played in a live casino before. The flop was ten high (T-6-Q IIRC), the turn was an ace, and the river another ten. I laid it down on the river (after she check-called the flop and turn and led out on the river), and she accidentally exposed her hand after I mucked. She had T7o. I laid down QQ on an Ace-high flop with 5 players firing back and forth. None of them had an ace, two of them turned the same straight.

That was the kind of day it was. Ugh.

Next time will be better.

Hey, the upside--Domenic took home $100 playing solid poker. As long as we break somewhat even playing the fish, I'm happy. Good job by you, dude.

The Theory of No-Limit Poker

2006-01-20T19:36:00.000-05:00

Big title, eh? Sounds like I have a great deal to live up to in this post. I actually think I can. Everybody who is anybody knows all about Sklansky's Fundamental Theorem of Poker:

Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.

But here, I suggest the Theory of No-Limit Poker: In addition to the above, I submit this:

In No-Limit Poker, every action, every bet, every element of every bet--down to the amount of the bet--exists for a reason. Every decision has a desired consequence. If you cannot determine the appropriate rationale or consequence for completing a given action, the action does not have appropriate EV.

To apply this theory, we need to consider each action in the hand individually. Take for example (no, please--take it) this hand I played yesterday:

Seat 1: Donkey ($20.15)
Seat 2: Button ($23.30)
Seat 3: SB ($9.75)
Seat 4: BB ($17.80)
Seat 5: UTG ($22.15)
Seat 6: UTG+1 ($35.80)
Seat 7: MP1 ($10.20)
Seat 8: MP2 ($9.65)
Seat 9: Hero ($46.35)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero: (Ah Ac)
2 folds,MP1 raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.25, Donkey calls $1.25,3 folds, MP1 calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** (8s 2h Js) ($4.10)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $2.60, Donkey calls $2.60, MP1 folds
*** TURN *** (8s 2h Js) (3h) ($9.30)
Hero bets $9, Donkey calls $9
*** RIVER *** (8s 2h Js 3h) (9s) ($27.30)
Hero bets $7.30, Donkey calls $7.30, and is all in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero shows (Ah Ac) (a pair of Aces)
Donkey shows (Qs 7s) (a flush, Queen high)
Donkey wins the pot ($39.85) with a flush, Queen high

I'm not using this as a bad beat post, but as a description of where I went wrong here:

PRE-FLOP: (Ah Ac)
Hero raises to $1.25
What am I doing?
Re-raising.

Why?
I want to tell the table that a) I have a strong hand. b) I want to make anyone with a weaker hand pay to see any flop that can beat me. c) I want to build a pot for me to win if/when people DO call.

Why that amount?
The original raise was a wimpy min-raise, so I raised to 5BB, 2.5x the original raise.

FLOP: (8s 2h Js)
Hero bets $2.60
What am I doing?
Betting $2.60.

Why?
To show strength and to eliminate any flush draw from calling.

Why that amount (about 2/3 pot)?
This is where I made a mistake. Part of me wants the call, therefore the sub-pot-sized bet. The other part wants to price out draws, but do I bet enough here? Anyone with a flush draw has 9 outs, not including any overcards or pairs they may have. We'll assign 10.5 outs, and assume that the player has (As 2s), the hand least likely to fold here. The opponent has about 3.5-to-1 odds to hit with 10.5 outs, or 4.2-to-1 odds to hit with a naked flush draw. My bet gives him only 2.57-to-1 on his money, which means he would need >18 outs to correctly call, so my bet was technically and mathematically correct, but the question is--would he have called given a full-pot bet? We'll never know.

TURN: (8s 2h Js) (3h)
Hero bets $9
What am I doing?
Betting a full-pot sized bet--$9.00

Why?
To build a potential pot, and to price out the now two flush draws that are out there on the board.

Why that amount (Full pot)?
Again, I'm trying to price out any potential drawing players. With two draws out there, I need to bet large. I need to protect my hand, which is quite vulnerable, not only to the flush draw, but also to any potential two pair hand. I bet $9 into a $9.30 pot, meaning that the caller is getting only slightly more than 2-to-1 on his money. This means that even with 10.5 outs (drawing potentially to two pair as well as a flush) he's 3.38-to-1 against making a hand. With a naked flush draw, he's 4.11-to-1 against making a hand. Again, my bet is mathematically and technically correct, but he calls anyway. To correctly call this bet, he would need in excess of 23 outs.

RIVER: (8s 2h Js 3h) (9s)
Hero bets $7.30
What am I doing?
Betting $7.30 to put my opponent all-in.

Why?
Frustration. This could have been my severe error in this hand. Was I a) trying to bluff that I made the flush and price out any weaker flushes? b) trying to push him off a hand? c) Just seeing if he'd lay down a busted heart draw?

Why that amount?
I felt that if he had to go all-in with a weak flush that he would let it go, or I was just pissed off, frustrated, or whatever. It was also a sense of a blocking bet, because if I had checked it, he would've pushed his last $7.30 in, and I would've been forced to call.

He called and showed down the Queen-high flush, sending my aces to the muck as the losing hand.

I'm not sure this hand would have or could have gone differently regardless of how I played it. The opponent had a VP$IP of 71%, a PFR% of 3%, and an Aggression Factor of 0.84, an extra-loose calling station. In hindsight, and being results-oriented, perhaps a stronger push on the flop would've forced him out. Maybe pushing all-in there, or pushing all-in on the turn may have helped, but again, we'll never know. The opponent made errors at almost every decision point and still won the hand. That's where the gambling part of poker comes in.

Let's analyze the opponent's play:
PRE-FLOP:
Error #1--He called a raise and re-raise cold with Q7s. Even speculatively, this is a decidedly -EV move. At this point, he made up his mind that if he flopped a flush draw, he would chase it to the river.

FLOP:
Error #2--He called a flop bet without sufficient odds to draw to a flush. He did have a two-gapped 3-to-a-straight draw as well, but even adding the 1.5 outs to that doesn't give him odds to profitably call the bet.

TURN:
Error #3--He called a pot-sized bet with nowhere near the odds needed to call. Even if you factor in the implied odds, he's calling $9 to win $30.85 more TOTAL(3.42-to-1) on his weak flush draw (4.11-to-1).

RIVER:
His first correct play of the hand. With a flush, you have to call this bet. Even if I had a higher flush, being that pot-committed, you have to call the last $7.30 off your stack to see if I bluffed it the whole way. My action prior says I don't have the flush. You have to call here, getting 4.75-to-1 on your money that I don't have a suited king in spades or a suited ace in spades.

Ok, this is some real second- and third-level thinking here. How about a chart based upon how much you need to bet, relative to pot-size, to price an opponent out of a draw to a hand that could potentially be better than yours? Much of this is read-dependent, obviously, but based upon what you know about an opponent's hand, maybe this can give you a guide.

You Put Opponent On...	Opponent's Outs	Odds Flop to Turn	% of Pot to Bet	Odds Turn to River	% of Pot to Bet
Flush Draw	9	4.22:1	35%	4.11:1	35%
Flush Draw + 1 Overcard Flush Draw + GSSD	12	2.92:1	53%	2.83:1	55%
Flush Draw + 2 Overcard Flush Draw + OESD	15	2.13:1	89%	2.07:1	94%
OESD	8	4.88:1	26%	4.75:1	27%
OESD + 1 Overcard	11	3.27:1	45%	3.18:1	46%
OESD + 2 Overcards (high end)	14	2.36:1	74%	2.29:1	78%
GSSD	4	10.8:1	11%	10.5:1	12%
GSSD + 2 Overcards	10	3.70:1	37%	3.60:1	39%
2 Overcards	6	6.83:1	18%	6.67:1	20%
Pair (using 1 hole card)	5	8.40:1	14%	8.20:1	15%
Pair + Flush Draw Pair + Flush Draw + GSD	14	2.4:1	72%	2.29:1	78%
Pair + OESD	10	3.70:1	38%	3.60:1	40%
Pair + GSSD	6	6.83:1	18%	6.67:1	20%
Pair + Flush Draw+ OESD	17	1.76:1	1.33 X pot	1.71:1	1.41 X pot

That table essentially is all about how much you should bet to make sure that an opponent's call will be incorrect. Of course, it is just a guideline, and using the guidelines to the letter will pretty much ensure that you'll get sucked out on your share and more. Bet stronger than the guideline. Better to win small pots than lose a big one.

I hope to use some of this information to not only create more articles, but also to refine your (and my own) hand analysis skills. When looking at a hand you've played, one of the things I've learned is to review the hand from the opponent's perspective. That will likely be the focus of my next article. Good luck at the tables, and happy reading!

Finding Your Way

2006-01-16T19:30:00.000-05:00

I had been thinking this weekend, about life, about poker, about a lot of things. The last post was somewhat hard for me to write, since it was an admission of sorts, not of failure, but of "what now?" Of course, sometimes nature has a way of providing you with a bit of insta-perspective, which in my case, never hurts.

I took the weekend off from everything poker, with the exception of changing my PokerAce HUD layouts. No, I didn't come up with something profound to do with the program. I simplified them. Majorly--but more on that later.

Saturday we picked out the baby's furniture and put down our deposits, and did a few other things "baby-related." Then, shortly after we stopped for dinner, we got caught in the mini-blizzard from hell. For any of you East Coast-ers out there, you know what I mean. We left at 3pm, it was 56 degrees, and drizzling. The winds picked up, and by 9:30pm, it was snowing heavily, and 32 degrees! We literally couldn't see more than a few car lengths in front of us coming home. We only got a coating on the roads, an inch or so on the grass, but that wasn't the big thing.

Sunday, we relaxed at home. The missus went to Babies 'R' Us to check out some more stuff to register for, but she complained of a headache before she left. I took her blood pressure and it was a little elevated, nothing to worry about, but just something to take notice of. When she came home, the headache was worse and her blood pressure at her mom's house was climbing. She called the doctor, and we were off to the hospital. To make a long story short, she's fine, the baby's fine, everybody's fine.

Whew.

What it did, however, was put everything in more of a realistic perspective. I didn't give a damn about anything else but my wife and baby. Nothing else mattered, and you know what--it shouldn't. Not poker, not the remodeling, nothing. We got home from the hospital about 10:30, and she says to me, "You need to relax. I'm fine. Baby's fine. Go do something. You're driving me crazy. Go play poker or something."

I know you shouldn't play under any type of stress, but at her urgings, I fired up Full Tilt and played some $25NL. An hour and a half later, I was up to $91 on one table, $65 on another, and $47 on my third. She's been aware of my struggles as of late, and she looked at the laptop from over my shoulder and leaned over me, draping her arms across my shoulders and kissed me. She just said, "Feeling better?"

I was. On many different levels.

Now: Back to your regularly scheduled poker post.

What's the difference? I figured it out. The answer isn't more data--it's less. At least for me. The only stats I have up on the HUD right now are the auto-rate icon, VP$IP, PFR, AF-Total, and # of Hands. Nothing else. If I want pop-up stats, I'll see WtSD, W$SD, Aggression Frequency, and their BB/100.

I was over-thinking poker. Immensely. I over-thought every bet, every raise, every everything, and I got away from using my own instincts on a player and trusting numerical reasoning. It cost me. Last night (and again this morning) I broke it down, and made it simple. The results are there. I'm getting back to reading players hands, rather than analyzing each move based upon numbers on the HUD. It's paying dividends.

Please don't think I'm running down Josh's fantastic program in any way. On the contrary, I think it's a vital tool to use while playing online poker. The best feature--the ability to customize the HUD to whatever you want it to display. Maybe my mind doesn't quite work on the advanced track that I think it does. Maybe it's that it exactly works on that advanced track. I'm not sure. The only thing I know is that it works for me.

That, and that mother-to-be, and baby are fine. That works real well for me.

Another Crossroads Post

2006-01-13T18:32:00.000-05:00

I'm at another crossroads in my poker life. It's the crossroads of Frustration Street and Jaded Avenue. 2005 was a very successful poker year for me, not to mention a success IRL. I started out playing 0.50/1 LHE and ended up playing 5/10 full time and taking cracks at 15/30, winning thousands of dollars along the way. I have long since cashed out my initial investments, and have been playing on OPM (other people's money) for months now.

Before you stop reading and say, "Christ, not another whiny bad beat post," I can tell you that no, this isn't another bad beat post.

Here's the problem. I've struggled since October '05, essentially just pushing money around a table, but not really getting anywhere.

I tried bonus whoring. Very counterproductive for me. When you buy into a site and start playing 2/4 during a bonus time, EXPECT fish to draw on you. I had more than my share. So, I decided to pare back my sites, and keep my money between Full Tilt and PokerStars. I made that decision in December, and since then it seems like I've just won money and gave it back. Either I'm running great hands into the one hand that can beat me (that the opponent can't POSSIBLY have), I'm running QQ into AA, or AJ into AQ, or I have hands like the gem where KK lost to K5o (yes, you're right--that is a 9-to-1 favorite pre-flop...). Just today, I had QQ all-in pre-flop against AK, and I just KNEW he was going to hit. He did, with a K on the flop. Then, he called me a fish. Can you f***ing believe that?

Either way, I'm frustrated with poker. Very frustrated. I know I'm playing generally solid poker--nobody plays great all the time, and I've been prone to some real tilt-fests over the last 3 months as well--but the results just aren't there.

I feel that I'm at least as good a player as I was in October (when I was just demolishing the Stars 5/10 FR game), but for some reason, either because I can't take playing $25 NL as seriously, or that I cashed out so much of my winnings that I don't have enough to really play the 5/10 anymore without playing scared, or...I don't even know. I just can't get off this 3-month long schneid, and it drives me crazy. I can pinpoint the date it started--October 12, 2005. I was at my high water mark, after taking a shot at the 15/30 game and winning $400 in about half an hour. I played the next day and got slaughtered (as evidenced here--8th post down). That started the downward spin. I was able to right the ship, but it just seems as though I can't break through since that point. I don't know if it's psychological, if I'm just enduring bad beats and tilting in response, or if I'm just playing sloppy. Is it the pseudo-pressure I put on myself by pronoucing myself semi-pro?

Either way, I want it to stop.

I can think of a few things this year that made me feel indestructable:

1) Winning the $20 LHE MTT on Stars.
2) Placing 13th of 300+ in a $55 MTT at the Taj Mahal in AC.
3) Running over live tables pretty much wire to wire.
4) The quick hit n run session at the 15/30 in October.

And for the flip side?

1) Cashing out less than I deposited at InterPoker--AFTER the bonus. (12/05)
2) Doing the same at Empire. (10/05)
3) My big (relative) downswing at 5/10 at Stars late in the year.

I think a great deal of the key is not getting too high or too low--but just playing your game. I also think I'm going to redeposit a little more into Stars (excess from the NetTeller account) to get up to about $1200 over there, and get back into the 3/6 game and move up accordingly. I'll keep the Full Tilt account for playing NLHE and a few mixed game tournies, since Stars doesn't yet offer them (Otis...). I just have to get past this, because I do love poker--I love the competition, the mental stimulation, and yeah, the money ain't bad either.

Thanks for listening, and all comments are welcome as always.

What About the OTHER Gambling Mecca?

2006-01-12T21:16:00.000-05:00

I was just wondering--actually, I've been wondering for a while--and not that I really think it would matter for me, but has anybody thought of having a Blogger gathering in Atlantic City? You know, on the EAST COAST???

Just a curiosity...

A Pet Peeve of Mine

2006-01-12T11:05:00.000-05:00

I've been playing the $25 NL over at Full Tilt, and I've discovered something that drives me INSANE. I'm in LP, dealt AT and I open raise to 4 BB. Flop comes 3-4-T, two hearts, and my ace is a heart. The BB, a dipshit of the highest order, min-bets a quarter into a pot of $3.10. With TPTK, I, of course have no respect for that and raise him to $1.00. He calls it. The turn card comes an offsuit 5. The pot is now $5.10, so what does he do? Min-bets another quarter. I come over the top for the pot and he folds. He reveals that he mucked Q7.

What the hell was the point of that? He calls a raise with nothing (but a draw to a draw), then folds to a raise with a draw.

Two hands earlier, I saw the most assinine example of min-betting I've ever seen. I watched the same donkey execute a min-bet on the turn (a quarter) into a $5 pot. The two players between him and I FOLDED TO IT!!!

You're giving up a $5 pot for a quarter?

I actually wanted to give a lesson, but as I write this, I have pocket kings and the douchebag decides to min-raise me to $0.50. I re-raise him to $1.25 and he folds.

I'm going to change my blog's tagline--Making my millions at the poker tables, one quarter at a time.

Stupidity--why does it bother me so?

Redesign...

2006-01-07T21:48:00.000-05:00

Hope you like the redesign--a new year, a new Cardroom. Enjoy everybody!

I Had to Share...

2006-01-06T19:12:00.000-05:00

I came home from work today and ~~played~~ ran over a PLO table. The highlight? This beauty (even though I really don't like posting histories):

Full Tilt Poker Game #371412423: Table Allen - $0.10/$0.25 - Pot Limit Omaha - 18:50:37 ET - 2006/01/06
Seat 1: UTG ($24.85)
Seat 2: UTG+1 ($28.65)
Seat 3: UTG+2 ($9.75)
Seat 4: MP1 ($17.45)
Seat 5: Hero ($80.20)
Seat 6: CO ($26)
Seat 7: Button ($5.25)
Seat 8: SB ($10.25)
Seat 9: BB ($11.85)
SB posts the small blind of $0.10
BB posts the big blind of $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Kh 5c 9d 9c]
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, BB checks
*** FLOP *** [5d 5s 4d]
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1
*** TURN *** [5d 5s 4d] [5h]
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
*** RIVER *** [5d 5s 4d 5h] [2h]
UTG+1 bets $1.75, Hero raises to $5, UTG+1 folds
Hero shows [Kh 5c 9d 9c] (four of a kind, Fives)
Hero wins the pot ($6.65)
Hero: TQB!!!

I just had to.

Great Article on When Playing By the Book Isn't Correct

2006-01-04T13:39:00.000-05:00

Was perusing through All-In Magazine, where I found this article by Rick Fuller: I highlighted the major point in bold type.

One of the most common mistakes that can cost you a lot of money over the long haul is calling a bet on the river when you know you’re beat. It’s a huge leak for a lot of players—one I’m familiar with because I’m actively trying to remove it from my own game.

“Well, I’ve got pot odds,” you say to justify your call. But it doesn’t matter. In these situations, pot odds mean less than a marriage proposal from Britney Spears. Yet so many of us make the call anyway, thinking we have no choice. Earlier this year, I was playing in a $20/40 limit Texas Hold’em game. I was in early position and raised with pocket queens. A loose player behind me called, and another loose player re-raised all-in, making it $50 to go. A very tight, predictable player—I’ll call him Rocky—capped the action at $70. The big blind called, putting it back on me. I had $40 invested and wasn’t going to fold pocket queens. For only $30 more I was going to see a flop. I called and the player behind me called—making us five-handed with one dude all-in. The flop: K-7-4, all spades.

The big blind and I both checked as I looked back at my cards to confirm that one of my cards was indeed the queen of spades. The loose player also checked, and Rocky bet out $20. The big blind folded—putting the decision on me. I was pretty sure Rocky had pocket kings. That’s what I put him on before the flop, and I was sure that all he would bet in this situation were a set of kings or possibly pocket aces with the ace of spades. (The way he played, there were no other hands with which he would’ve capped the action pre-flop.)

I was pretty sure he didn’t have aces because he didn’t check his cards after the flop. Although it’s possible that he would have remembered which aces he held, most players at this level will at least take a peek to double-check. Yep, I was almost certain that Rocky had flopped a set of kings.

Now I had to decide what to do. It was possible that one of the two players behind me had the ace of spades, but they both played a ridiculous amount of hands, so it was just as likely that they held any two random cards. I also knew that the player who was not all-in would be likely to draw to a lot of spades, including the jack or the ten. With the pot size at $360, I decided that making the $20 call was the right thing to do here. I threw in my chips casually and the player behind me folded—leaving just Rocky, All-In and me. Burn and turn … six of spades.

I was watching Rocky’s face as the card came. He got a disgusted look that seemed genuine enough. I fired $40 toward the pot; Rocky thought about it for just a minute and reluctantly called, still looking perturbed. The river … six of hearts—pairing the board. Rocky’s eyes lit up, and at that moment I knew I was beat.

I checked to him and he bet $40. It was at this point that I made the mistake that can cost a player a lot of money over the course of time. There was $500 in the pot and it was just $40 to give myself a chance to take it down. I figured that I had the pot odds to call—because if Rocky was bluffing and I was right about that only one time in 12, it was a profitable play. But there was a major problem with this line of thinking.

Rocky was a very tight, passive player who would have been more than happy to check and show down just about any hand except for the nuts. I knew this, but for some reason still decided to call. I did not have the pot odds because I knew that I was beat. Sure enough, Rocky rolled over the K-K for a full house, the exact hand that I knew he had.

Leak.

There are times when you simply have to ignore pot odds and lay down your hand. This applies to pot-limit and no-limit Hold’em games as well. A favorite ploy of many no-limit tournament pros is to make such a small bet on the river that their opponent feels they simply have to call. If there’s $4,000 in the pot and I bet $400, and you know that I will bluff at least one time in ten in this situation, then you have to make the call…right? No! If you know, either through a read or betting patterns in play that you are beat then you do not have to call. Save the chips for use in a better spot.

In limit Hold’em, one of the keys to success is the ability to “save bets.” I used to believe that earning an average profit of one big bet per hour made me a good player. But if that’s my goal as a professional, then in the hand described above, I had just blown my expected earnings for the hour. Errors like this one tend to really add up over the course of a single session, not to mention an entire year. Folding on the river when you know you’re beat—just a slight tweak to your game—can significantly increase your expected winnings—from 1 big bet per hour to 1 or even 2 big bets per hour.

That’s not to say that you should always lay down a hand to a river bet when you suspect you’re beat. If Rocky were the type of player capable of making a bluff in that situation, then I wouldn’t have been so confident about his pocket kings, and my decision to call would’ve been easy and correct. But, after playing together all night, I knew Rocky better than that—and thus I should’ve known better than to throw “just another $40” into the pot, no matter how sumptuous it looked.

It's the anti-ToP argument. At a certain level of poker (which I can say that I may or may not be at currently), you need to trust your reads and toss pot odds out the window. Just because there's 12 BB in the pot, and there's a 4-flush on the board that beats your 2 pair, do you call because he might be bluffing? Pot odds theory says yes. Rick Fuller and I say no. Trust your reads, kids.

The Time Between Christmas & New Years

2005-12-28T20:33:00.001-05:00

...a holiday for many, but not for me :-(

I've been working since yesterday, after having Monday off. Got to play a little this morning, before I had to work tonight (where I'm blogging from now). I finally cleared that Interpoker bonus I had been working on, so I quick upped and withdrew my funds with the intent of re-depositing into PokerStars.

I figure I'll be playing solely on Stars and Full Tilt from now on, since I really like the sites, and I'd prefer not to have money spread so thinly. It's kinda hard to play the limits you want to play when your roll is spread over 5 sites.

Anyhoo, I'm kinda wandering around the poker landscape now, not doing a whole hell of a lot of anything. I was playing 5/10 and 10/20 on Stars before the great cold deck of fall '05, and now I haven't played on Stars in a month, and I've only got about $1200 online after some cashouts and Christmas.

It's a strange feeling. I won > $6000 as a part time player through October, cashed out more than $2000 for a gift for the wife, another $1200 to save, and during the aforementioned cold deck time, lost about $1600 over a month or so.

I felt in control when I was winning on Stars. I don't know what happened. The cards stopped coming, I started dropping $500 a day sometimes. It's not a lot of money in the grand scheme, but when you're used to winning far more than you lose, it's a bitch. I sought out the bonus trail, and realized that while bonuses were nice, they also brought out the fish, and unlike most successful players, all it brought to me was an endless streak of being drawn out on.

If I think about it, I'll do a year-in-review post later this week, and you all will get to see my ten biggest losses of the year and my ten biggest winners, too.

This is my question, a full year into my online poker quest--Am I actually a good player?

Three months ago, I would've answered that with a resounding "yes." In fact, I really thought that I was legitimately one of the best players in the Stars 5/10 game ANYWHERE. Pounding a game for ~ 4BB/100 over 5k hands will do that to you. Especially after you pound the 3/6 for the same, and the 2/4, and the 1/2, and even the micro-limit stuff.

Right now, however, my confidence is severely shaken. Why? I'm not making different plays. The same plays just aren't winning for me. I feel that I'm making solid plays continuously, and getting my money in with the best of it consistently. BUT I LOST MONEY AT INTERPOKER PLAYING 2/4 and 1/2!!!!

A typical hand there (and everywhere I've played limit lately) would go like this:
Me (tight/aggressive): AA
Fish (loose/passive): does it matter?
Flop: A-3-7 rainbow.
Bet-call.
Turn J.
Bet-call.
River 5
Bet-FISH RAISES-crying call to see him turn over 64o.

I really feel like I haven't been a winning poker player since early October. I'm playing WAITING to be drawn out on. EXPECTING it. That isn't a great way to be, folks. I also don't know how to correct it.

Good hands hold up occassionally, but even in my foray into NL, I've run into just the shittiest luck you can imagine:

Me: 88
Opponent: ??
Flop: 8-J-2
I lead out for 2x the pot. He calls.
Turn: A
I lead out for the pot, he calls.
River: K
I lead out again, he raises all-in, shows QT.

Or a hand that got all-in pre-flop with my AA vs. his 66.
Flop came A-K-T
Turn Q
River J.

This was a $30 pot at $25NL that was all-in pre-flop!

On in PLO when I flop the muscle end of an open-ended straight flush draw:

KhQhKsAs

flop: JhTh5s

Of course, I'm going to push the bejezzus out of it. Pot!

How many outs is this?
To second nut flush: 8 outs (any heart other than the Ace)
To nut flush: 1 out (Royal) (Ah)
To nut straight: 8 outs (any Ace except Ah-3, any Q-2, any 9-3)
To set: 2 outs (any K)

So what happens? I brick up turn and river. 19 outs--that's 26-19 odds or 1.37-to-1 odds against making a hand. In poker, though, that's just about the best odds you can possibly have without a made hand--never mind the fact that I already had top pair...

I know, I'm whining here, but I just need affirmation that I am in fact as good a player as I thought I was. I feel like I'm making the best plays, but they're just not being rewarded in the results.

I know it's bad luck, but it has to turn around some time, right?

Merry Christmas to all...and to all a Good Night!

2005-12-24T15:03:00.000-05:00

Just taking the time to wish everyone out in the Blogosphere the happiest of holidays and a New Year filled with all the blessings in the world.

My message to you this year is simple.

Grab the ones you love, pull them in, and hug them just a little bit tighter than usual--be thankful for those you love.

Throughout the year, you piss each other off, you get mad at each other, hell, you may not even speak to some.

Get over it. The holidays are about family. Appreciate the ones you love, and even if Santa Claus doesn't bring you everything on your list this year, bask in the glory that is your family's love.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa, whatever your holiday happens to be--make sure you share it with the people that mean the most to you. Share it with your biggest fans--your family.

AK in No-Limit Holdem to a Raise--What to do??

2005-12-23T10:58:00.000-05:00

All this discussion got me to thinking. Is it in fact +EV to re-raise AK in No-Limit Holdem? So, what I'm going to do is basically take information from my post from a few months back about using VP$IP to figure out what your opponents might be holding, and use that information to calculate the EV of AK, suited or offsuit and see how much of an edge you really have.in the situation.

First, I want to define what I'm talking about here. I'm using excession (from BTP)'s criteria to show tight/loose, etc. He defines the traditional categories this way:

Tight: VP$IP < 22%
Semi-Loose: VP$IP 22-35%
Loose: VP$IP > 35%
Extra Loose: VP$IP > 55%

I'm not yet sure, but it may be profitable to look at these players either ths way or by their PFR numbers, or even perhaps by the percentage of hands they raise PF with (If your VP$IP is 20% and your PFR is 5%, your raising percentage is 25%). Either way, the assumption used here is that a player raises with their best hands, not just any random trash.

For the sake of argument, we'll also define the raising percentage statistic (PFR divided by VP$IP), and use these criteria:

Passive Pre-Flop: R% < 25% (VP$IP/PFR pairs like 20/4, 30/5, or 40/6)
Average Pre-Flop: R% 25-35% (VP$IP pairs like 20/7, 30/11, or 40/12)
Aggressive Pre-Flop: R% >35% (VP$IP pairs like 20/10, 30/14, or 40/18)

More assumptions:

1) A player will loosen up as position gets later. Therefore a player's raising percentage may be 25% overall. It may be 10% in EP, and as high as 40% in LP.
2) Regardless, you should always open-raise with AK, suited or not.
3) We're using Sklansky groups to simplify the discussion:

Group 1 Hands: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and AKs. There are 28 ways to make these 5 hands, 2.11% of the possible hands.
Group 2 Hands: TT, AQs, AJs, KQs, and AK. There are 30 ways to make these 5 hands, 2.26% of the possible hands.
Group 3 Hands: 99, JTs, QJs, KJs, ATs, and AQ. There are 34 ways to make these 6 hands, 2.56% of the possible hands.
Group 4 Hands: T9s, KQ, 88, QTs, 98s, J9s, AJ, and KTs. There are 50 ways to make these 8 hands, 3.77% of the possible hands.
Group 5 Hands: 77, 87s, Q9s, T8s, KJ, QJ, JT, 76s, 97s, Axs, and 65s. There are 98 ways to make these 18 hands, 7.39% of the possible hands.
Group 6 Hands: 66, AT, 55, 86s, KT, QT, 54s, K9s, J8s, and 75s. There are 68 ways to make these 10 hands, 5.13% of the possible hands.
Group 7 Hands: 44, J9, 64s, T9, 53s, 33, 98, 43s, 22, Kxs, T7s, and Q8s. There are 106 ways to make these 20 hands, 7.99% of the possible hands.
Group 8 Hands: 87, A9, Q9, 76, 42s, 32s, 96s, 85s, J8, J7s, 65, 54, 74s, K9, and T8. There are 132 ways to make these 15 hands, 9.95% of possible hands.

Now, for the real stuff...
Situation 1: You're in LP, 3 off the button. A player in MP raises to 5 BB, an average raise for the table. You look down and see AKs. What do you do?
If the player is tight and aggressive, you have to think about the top 10% of hands. This includes all the Sklansky Group I and II hands, and the "better" Group III hands. Using Pokerstove, you get that AKs is about a 54-46 favorite over this grouping of hands. AKo, however, has a smaller edge, only 52-48. Poker, and specifically no limit holdem, is about exploiting any small edge you may have. However, is it enough of an edge to push more chips into the pot on what is essentially a coin flip?

Situation 2: Same as above, only the player is very LAGgy and likes to raise a lot of hands. Say he raises his pocket pairs, and his paint cards first in a pot...When the possibility of weaker holdings comes into the picture, your edge with AKs becomes larger--61-39. AKo is a 59-41 favorite here.

You knew there was a table coming, didn't you?

Raisor will Raise with Hands to Group #	PFR%	Edge for AKs	Edge for AKo
Group 1	2-3%	40-60 Underdog	36-64 Underdog
Group 2	3-7%	59-41 Favorite	56-44 Favorite
Group 3	7-11%	62-38 Favorite	60-40 Favorite
Group 4	11-13%	64-36 Favorite	62-38 Favorite
Group 5	13-20%	66-34 Favorite	64-36 Favorite
Group 6	20-25%	67-33 Favorite (2-to-1)	65-35 Favorite
Group 7	25-33%	63-34 Favorite	61-39 Favorite
Group 8	>33%	64-36 Favorite	62-38 Favorite

What does this tell you? It tells you that you are a significant favorite over most hands, but to be extremely wary against hands you may be dominated against. What is dominant over AK? AA or KK--the hands most likely to be raised and re-raised. If you raise first in with AK, and you get re-raised, it becomes decision time, especially if your re-raisor is a tight player. If you assume you are an underdog, or even a coin flip, you must be aware of the pot odds you have to call this re-raise, and you must also be ready to let go of this dangerous yet potent drawing hand. Also remember that as the number of players to a flop increases, the chances you will be able to win unimproved decreases. AK is a fantastic hand, but one you should play similarly to TT or JJ. If a flop comes Q-high and you're bet into, you're most likely beaten and need to muck it.

Meanwhile, if your raisor is anything but tight, re-raising with AK is a +EV move, especially if you don't believe they have AA or KK. You are no worse than a 55-45 underdog to any hand other than AA or KK. My advice again, however, is to know when to let go.

The Debate Over AK in No-Limit Hold'em

2005-12-18T19:14:00.000-05:00

I wrote in a post about 7 months ago about the dangers in playing AK, and today over at Bet-the-Pot, I got quite the surprise in that quite a few experienced NL players prefer to either limp with AK, or to muck the hand pre-flop to a raise.

This stunned me.

I mean, yes, I'm a limit specialist, and the hand is far more valuable in limit than it is in NL (or is it?), but isn't this one of the Sklansky "raise and re-raise" hands? The hand in question had a player in the SB with 2 previous limpers (one of whom--EP--is considered to be a rock, and calling only 9% of PFRs, the other is the button). The poster completed his blind, then the BB raised to 5BB. The EP player called the raise, the button folded, and the SB, the poster, also folded. The flop was A-6-3, with the 6 and 3 being diamonds. It was checked around.

My response to him was as follows:

Let me get this straight...You folded AK from the SB to a 5x BB open raise from the BB?

WHY???

I would've re-raised him to isolate.

AK, even though it is not a made hand, is a true premium hand, one that should be raised and re-raised with pre-flop, pretty much regardless of position. Only time you let the hand go is if the opponent pushes full stack. Even then, you think about it, because against anything but AA or KK, you're no worse than a coin flip.

So, no, not weak tight, just weak. Sorry, chief, but it takes a lot for me to dump AK pre-flop.

I got an argument. Also a stunner. The original argument was:

In cash games AK is nowhere near as good as in tourneys. You simply don't make as much money with AK as for example 99 and there is a reason.

Again, stunned. I didn't know how to react, so I kinda dove into reading. I came across this article in CardPlayer:

Whatâ€™s the best starting hand in no-limit holdâ€™em? The quick and popular answer is pocket aces. The next most popular answers are pocket kings, pocket queens and A-K (aka â€œbig slickâ€ï¿½). But I think itâ€™s time to devalue A-K.

You make money with a hand when an opponent puts money in the pot when you are the favorite. Bluffing is not a factor in determining the value of a starting hand. You can bluff with any two cards. The way you play a hand determines the efficacy of the bluff (along with your image and the relative sizes of chip stacks). The value of a hand is a function of the number and power of the situations in which it is profitable.

Pocket aces are profitable because they are a big favorite over every other hand before the flop. The known danger is that most people canâ€™t get away from them when they catch a bad flop. This is even more true of pocket kings, because too many people will call bets on the flop even with an ace out there.

But I am using this column to argue that A-K is the hand that has become much more dangerous and less profitable in the past few years. Years ago, it was much more common for people to play all sorts of ace-rag and Broadway hands, even for a raise. That situation massively favors the A-K, which is why big slick used to be correctly valued very highly. Back then, if you raised with A-K, you could count on regularly being called by A-Q, A-J, A-10, K-Q, K-J, and even A-9.

Even better, when you were lucky enough to flop an ace or king (about a third of the time), you had the best kicker and your opponent was drawing to only three outs (to hit his kicker). You could bet big on the flop and even get raised by someone you had dominated. You could get all of your money in on the flop as a substantial favorite. Thatâ€™s even better than the popular wish of getting it all in preflop with aces over an opponentâ€™s deuces. Years ago with A-K, even when you missed the flop, you often could make a continuation bet and take the pot. What a glorious time. Those were the â€œgood old days.â€ï¿½ Donâ€™t count on that now.

Sure, it still happens now, especially at the lower limits, but the competition changed as players became more educated. Sklansky, Caro, and the rest of the poker experts effectively warned the public about playing weak kickers, especially for a raise. Nowadays, if you raise with big slick preflop, get called by A-J, and then check-raise an ace-high flop, most players wonâ€™t pay you off. Big slick just doesnâ€™t earn what it used to.

What is worse, players will call you with a medium pair preflop and raise you even when thereâ€™s an overcard on the flop. So, if the flop comes J-6-2, many opponents will put you on A-K and happily go all in with 9-9, knowing you canâ€™t profitably call.

Another problem with A-K was caused by poker on television (I accept my share of the blame). Wacky hands played by tricky pros get a lot of airtime. More and more players are emulating that strategy, so they can flop stealth two pairs and straights. Consequently, if youâ€™re really deep-stacked, A-K becomes tremendously precarious. Your A-K can get an apparently attractive flop of K-8-6, and you can go broke when an opponent shows you an 8-6.

As is the case with everything in poker, it depends on the situation and the players. But because the competition has changed strategy, itâ€™s time to counter effectively. Donâ€™t play A-K like itâ€™s the nuts unless youâ€™re short-stacked.

If youâ€™re deep-stacked, youâ€™ve got to be aware that the competition is increasingly playing for implied odds, and your big slick rarely flops the nuts inconspicuously. A-K is too often easily read, and simply doesnâ€™t profit like it used to. Itâ€™s time to devalue A-K and make more money on other hands. Good luck.

More important than knowing most everything is knowing when you donâ€™t. I donâ€™t know everything. Tell me when Iâ€™m wrong.

...and I saw the argument for letting go of AK. Then, I saw this article:

A friend of mine recently wrote an article in "CardPlayer" about devaluing Ace/King. He asked me what I thought about it. If you have yet to read his article, check it out at Cardplayer.com
Either way, this is what I wrote to him.

"Good to hear from you Dan. I've read your article and it is well written. In a no-limit cash game, you are, in my humble opinion, 80% correct. A/J and A/Q are trouble hands in a no-limit game...but Ace/King can be profitable...you just have to play it right. It is only a drawing hand and too many people get married to it.

I've seen this scenario a million times...A/K limps in, flops an ace and loses their entire stack. Mama always said, "don't go broke in an unraised pot" - these same players go on to say how awful A/K is. Of course the next time they get it, they become even more passive and just limp. They allow their opponents to get free shots at them.

A/K is best played in a raised pot. And unless it is suited, you don't want many opponents. You must charge your opponent(the one with 8/6) a hefty price to try and outdraw you.

Yes...A/K is transparent, but is it really? Hmm, I raised pre-flop...flop is all rags and now I'm still betting. Do I have Ace/ King or do I have pocket jacks? How do you know? And more importantly, are you willing to risk a substantial portion of your stack to find out?

Out of position - A/K can be hard to play...but so is everything, except for the Nuts.

Most good players can get away from Ace/rag or Ace/jack even when an Ace falls....but how many times is the game filled with only good players? Just the other day, I had a guy call off his entire stack with ace/nine. In the end, good players get away from losing hands - Bad players don't. Is it hard to get away from A/K? of course it is, but if you've been paying attention to the players at your table and taking mental notes, you should have a "read" on what they might have in any difficult situation.
Not to pat myself on the back, but the other day I folded A/K on the flop. The board read A/K/Q. No big deal really - Any player who was remotely focused on his opponents had to know he was beat. ( my opponent had J/10).

Another play I like to do with Ace/King is to just call a raise in position...it sometimes conceals the strength of my hand. If I flop an ace or a king and my opponent has ace/queen or king/queen - I might get paid off. Just like any situation, you must always be aware of who you are playing against.

Yes, in no-limit hold'em, you will almost always make more money with small sets, suited connectors and the like. But if played well, A/K can be very profitable.

...and I saw the article for leaving it alone. I've always played AK with only slightly less enthusiasm pre-flop than AA and KK. Think about it: With you holding AK, you are clearly dominated against AA. You are reasonably dominated against KK. Against everything else, you are hardly worse than a coin flip against a random hand. That is a double-edged sword, mind you. That also means that you're also only slightly better than a coin flip against the majority of hands that people would be playing for a raise. However, I can't understand the idea of mucking the hand to a raise from an LP player or from the BB in what smells like a blatant steal.

Think about it. If in our original example, the player simply called, he has no more information than he had before. He has essentially wasted his call. He was getting > 4-to-1 odds on his call in the situation, which clearly shows that you must at least call unless you suspect AA or KK. How does one discover where one stands? Raise. Raise for information AND for value. In this case, RE-RAISE. If the poster comes over the top with a pot-sized raise (about 17BB) and the BB flat calls, he should be cautious. A raise here is an attempt to win the pot RIGHT NOW. Of course, if he flat calls and you outflop the caller, it becomes a value raise as well.

In this situation (as easy as it is to be results-oriented), the flop brought an ace (and a 6 and a 3), meaning that the only things that you're behind here are AA, A6, A3, 33, or 66. He could potentially have those hands, and if he does, good for him.

What a re-raise does here is either a) win you the pot here, not allowing you to risk not outflopping your opponent, or b) builds the pot in the event you do outflop your opponent and win you a larger pot. He's as likely to have AQ here as he is to have 66 or 33.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This brings me to another point. In an effort to avoid (or is it perpetuate) the dreaded affliction FPS--Fancy Play Syndrome--I've thought of an interesting theorem. Raise big with your premium hands. Your AA, KK, QQ, JJ, etc. Now here comes the tricky part: Raise BIGGER with your drawing and speculative hands.

It's just a thought, but if you're on the button with ATs, and 2 people limp from MP, and you crank out a garden-variety positional 4BB raise and get two callers, you've built the pot, granted, but when the flop comes K-8-6, with none of your suit, all you've done is give yourself reason to fold, especially if one of the limpers lead out.

If you have AA there, you want those limpers to call, but you have to raise here. Toss out the 4-5BB raise and watch them call. You've built a pot where you are a clear favorite. Nice, eh? However, in the first example, you really DON'T want callers. How do you avoid callers? Raise bigger. Chuck out a 6-7BB raise. You're making players who are limping with "limp-quality hands" pay a SIGNIFICANT premium to continue on. Of course, the bigger raise could be read as an overbet, but you're not raising with crap here, you're raising with quality cards--only quality cards that need a little help--AND you're giving yourself odds later on.

The important thing to remember if you foolishly take my advice is to vary your strategy regardless, because it makes you harder to read.

This is just something I'm posting out in the blogosphere--I don't believe it to be gospel or anything like that, and I don't personally play that way--but it is an interesting thought, no?

What? Playing No-Limit?

2005-12-17T18:47:00.000-05:00

Yes, folks, that is in fact me you see playing NLHE at Full Tilt and Interpoker. Limit hasn't been very kind to me since the downswing. So, I figured I'd mix it up a little bit and start climbing the NL ladder the same way I climbed the limit ladder.

I think it's a simple, but very important lesson to learn. I have the bankroll for higher games, but I started at $25 NL. Why? It's not your skills alone, nor your bankroll alone that dictates where in the world of poker you belong. It's a combination of both. Poker's been extremely good to me over the last year (yep, it's almost a full year that I've been playing for real money), and I feel that I've learned a great deal. I've played limit (playing up to the 10/20 game on Stars, and having a cup of coffee at 15/30--not bad for a guy who started '05 playing in the 0.25/0.50 LHE games, eh?), no-limit (up to the $200 NL on UB), and other games, but for right now, I don't feel my NL skills are sufficient enough to handle playing higher than $25 NL. I want to win some bucks at these games, re-learn the differences between limit and NL poker, then move up. I think it's solid advice to start low and go slow. For me, it's not a money issue--it's an issue of pride, and playing the best game I can, and learning the game the best way I can. Hell, I want the tournament circuit. Experience is only going to help me, both near term, and in the long run.

Ramblings:

For the first time in a while, I'm seeing a few Tuesdays off in January--are you listening, Dom? AC trip time--long overdue.

I wonder how many players have final tabled NL and Limit tourneys (with > 300 players) in the same year? Don't embarrass me by telling me that thousands have, especially since it's one of the poker accomplishments I'm most proud of this year. Hey, it's my ramblings section, and I'll gloat if I want to.

I glanced over my NL database (open since 12/05--I somehow lost my UB database from the spring), and I saw that in the 10 hands I lost the most money with, I either ran JJ, QQ, KK, or AK into AA or got my money in the middle with the best of it. Can't ask for anything more than that, right?

Weird thing is that I'm playing as much poker now as I've played any time this year, but the money's coming slower. I guess that's the difference between playing 5/10 LHE for $200 pots and $25 NL for $10 pots...

That's both a good thing, and a bad thing. Some time around mid-October, I hit a wall in LHE, where I would lose with everything, and I endured some really pathetically bad beats. (November was the first losing month (albeit small) that I'd ever really had) Now, when some schmuck pushes in $25 NL with his TPTK and his $10, and I'm sitting there with a flush draw and call the bet, I'm thinking, "Yeah, like I'm laying down my nut flush draw for one bet?"

I lose more money that way...

The one thing that I thought that NL would teach me is discipline. It's common knowledge that I'm a fairly tight player (LHE VP$IP 17.5%). I looked over the NL DB, and what do I find? A VP$IP of 20.8%! What the hell? Am I taking the implied odds concept THAT far? Or am I really just a sLAG? I feel like I should be around 15%, and pushing the crap out of those hands. I think I'm a good enough player post-flop to be around 20, but I can't help but recall that I was a good limit player until I got my VP$IP below 18%--then I became a great limit player. Maybe that's the answer.

I think some time in the new year I'm going to make a triumphant return to the limit games--hopefully by then I'll be off the schneid I was on at Stars. The schneid coincided with a) the dissolution of the Party network, and b) my 'decision' to go semi-pro and take regular withdrawals. This means that either a) the fish were getting the best of me short term, or b) I need to go make my tinfoil hat and join the masses that say that online poker is rigged.

I'll take (a), especially since if online poker was rigged, it sure as hell was rigged in MY favor for a long time.

Quote of the year--from the loving and supportive (and very pregnant) Mrs. PokerShark, in response to me saying that I really don't have any vices, except my love of poker...

"Honey, as long as you keep winning, me and the baby don't care how much poker you play. And don't worry, if you spend too much time playing, your baby's first word won't be 'daddy,' it'll just be 'Tiffany's.'"

How screwed am I?

Don't forget to visit the linked blogs on the right, and play at Full Tilt Poker. HDub and the folks over there run a helluva good site. Patronize our friends over there, mmkay?

In case I don't get back to blogging before the holidays, I hope that the holidays bring you closer to those you love and that the new year brings you nothing but the realizations of all your dreams. Good health and good luck everybody!

Peeling One Off...

2005-12-01T08:14:00.000-05:00

First, apologies to both my readers for my one month unwilling sabbatical. It's been crazy busy being the Shark, and hopefully, I'll be able to put more time into blogging now...

Anyhoo, a post by MecosKing over at BTP inspired me to write this post. The example he gave wasn't really as good as another I saw later the same day. Here's the setting: You're playing and you look down at a small pocket pair in LP or the BB. That could be a post in and of itself, but I digress. In LP, you limp in and see the flop, in the BB, it's raised to you and you call the raise from the blind. The situation matters less than the play:

Party Poker 5/10 6-max:

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3c, 3d. CO posts a blind of $5.
1 fold, MP raises, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

A blind defense, a profitable BB call with a pair, either way, you're in.

Flop: (10 SB): 9s, Qh, Ah (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

The advantage of having relative position after a bet--you're now getting 14-to-1 on a call, and even though you KNOW you're beat here, think of the implied odds you get if you hit... Granted, you're drawing to 2 outs, with one possibly tainted, but for one SB...you peel one off.

Turn: (7.50 BB): 3s (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero raises, MP calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls.

The gin card. This isn't my hand, and I'm not sure I like the check-raise here with 2 flush draws now out there, (not that a straight bet will help here either), but he drew to his 23.5-to-1 prop and hit. He spent a small bet to get a lot more and hit his perfect card. The flush draws can be scary here, but now he's building the pot with what likely is the very best hand.

River: (16.50 BB): 9c (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP calls, Button folds, SB folds.

Yahtzee. Only way I like this better is if the card that falls is the 9h (completing a heart draw). He extracts max value out of it and takes down a $185 pot.

Peeling one off isn't always a solid play. For example, in this situation, he has to figure he's way behind on the flop, maybe to 2 pair, and he's getting nowhere near the odds to call the flop bet. This is where the subtle differences in holdem between a small bet on the flop and a big bet on the turn and river come into play. Many players will use a peel off on the flop to see if their marginal hand will get good on the turn. The difference between good players and donks is that the good players re-evaluate their position after the turn, while the donk will just keep peeling. In this situation, if the 3s doesn't hit on the turn, our Hero can easily get away from this hand to a BB, and can live to fight another day.

He's looking at the implied odds here. I'm being results-oriented, but at the same time, you have to in this analysis of what on the surface looks like a poor play. He's calling 14-to-1 on a 23.5-to-1 shot. A bad play, right? What did hitting get him? 18.5 BB to 1 SB. Reduce it out--37-to-1 implied odds on the call. Granted, he could have hit his hand and still lost to a flush or even an oddly played straight, but a set to a full house on the river potentially gives you 9 outs, 37-to-9, or 4.1-to-1 odds of pairing the board.

Don't think I'm saying this is the end-all, be-all play, or even a solid one--just consider adding it to your arsenal in the right situation!

As a post-script, not poker related, but of the utmost importance besides, the ultrasound showed that we're likely having a baby girl in April. I thought I couldn't love anything more than I love my wife. I was wrong, in a good way.

Playing Part Time and Variance

2005-11-02T15:50:00.000-05:00

Josh from PokerAceHUD wrote me a reply in a forum about playing part time and dealing with variance. I feel I make an accurate assumption in that most of my readers are part-time players, whether pro, semi-pro, or just for fun. Very few of you play ~40 hours weekly, and reach the numbers of hands at a level to either 1) determine your accurate win rate, or 2) see what "the long run" is all about.

I noticed you posted your win rates earlier. You have incredible win rates, but they are for very tiny sample sizes. What's the largest downswing you've ever had? As a winning player, expect to have 100 BB downswings often ($1000), 200 BB downswings occasionally ($2000), and even a 300 BB downswing is possible ($3000). 300 BB is the minimum recommended bankroll for a winning player for a reason.

Losing 50 BB over 1377 hands is nothing. You can lose that much in less than 100 hands. If you were at 200 BB in the same amount of hands, that would be something to worry about, but 50 BB is really just a dip.

One thing that you should watch out for is saying things like this: "I'm a >4 BB/100 winner." If you haven't played more than 200k hands at the limit, you can't tell what your win rate is. 200k hands probably isn't enough to know either. The long run is VERY long. You will be doing very well if you win at 1.5 BB/100...

...I'm not saying you're a bad player! Not at all. Just concentrate more on making correct plays and less on results. The money will follow. This is a lesson that I had to learn the hard way.

I found that profound advice. Everyone's poker situation is different. Mine is that my wife doesn't want this to become an obsession (strike 1), and that she doesn't want me rebuying. My risk of ruin situation is therefore different than most. Going back to the post on variance and bankroll requirements, I could likely set my risk of ruin down to perhaps 0.001 to get a more accurate assumption of risk and bankroll.

But I'm getting away from the point.

Josh makes a fantastic point here about the long run, short term swings, and the like.

The point here is that if you know you're a good player, and I don't mean those of us that overestimate our ability (sheepish grin), and the cards run cold, even though you may go "poker broke," it is vital to continue to play the solid game that got you there. More from Josh:

Yeah, being a part time player means that you probably won't get anywhere near the long run. Fortunately, most people don't run bad long enough to need to hit the long run to win. Most professional players have played over 200k hands. Personally, I have 300k hands in my various PT databases. The limit I have the most on is $3/6, with about 180k hands.

I know what you mean about bad streaks feeling really bad, beyond belief even. The first month of me being a pro I went on a 270 BB downswing, a 200 BB upswing, then a 200 BB downswing. I couldn't win anything. Every big PP got outdrawn, I missed every draw unless it was the second best, etc, etc. It's easy to think that the sites are rigged, but the truth is that this is just poker. When you are putting $30-50 into each pot you play, you will lose significantly when the cards aren't falling your way.

Also, think about the odds. AKo vs 72o is only a 66 to 33 favorite. 1/3 of the time he is going to outdraw you. Of course, 72o is rarely played, but substitute JTo, Q7o, K4s, etc, and you'll see that you really are playing a game made up of a lot of tiny edges. These edges don't always work out the way they should, just like you can flip a coin ten times and have it land heads 10 times. That's the gambling part of poker and be thankful for it because that's what keeps the fish coming back for more.

Right now you are talking to the king of bad beats and negative variance. I've had far more than my share over the past 6-7 months. However, one thing I've since noticed. If you find yourself being less aggressive and less willing to value bet when you know you should, you need to make an effort to snap out of that. While it might save you a little when you are outdrawn, it slows down your recovery because you aren't winning as much in the pots you do take down.

This is absolutely profound stuff to the amateur's mind. Don't tighten up, don't become more passive. It will bite you in the ass more than not. Not only are you getting away from the style of play that MADE you successful, you're intraining bad habits that will affect your play in the future.

This, by the way, is being written after I've taken a good $400 downswing today playing solid hands solidly, and being beaten by underdog hands. My AA vs. KQ--lost to a rivered 4-flush. QJs loses to Q4s with a rivered flush. AQ, raised pre-flop, loses to two idiots calling with 98o EACH to river a straight. These are the bad beats that are a part of a poker player's life.

So what did I do? I dropped down temporarily to 3/6 and just kicked the table in the mouth.

People whine about bad beats all the time, myself included. Ask yourself--why do I take so many bad beats? The answer is simple. You're getting your money in with the best hand WAY more often than not. That makes you a solid poker player. You're making profitable decisions. Poker is not all luck, nor is it all skill. As long as you continue to make profitable decisions, you will in the long run (whatever that point really is) be a profitable player. Keep making good plays, and you will be rewarded.

October 2005 Review

2005-11-01T20:49:00.000-05:00

It was a significant month in my poker playing career, the month I decided to go semi-pro, and the month where variance really bit me in the ass hard. Overall, it was a profitable month for me, which in the end, is all that counts.

I got in 35 sessions, 20 of them winning (57.14%), and played for about 31 1/2 hours overall. The stretch of variance I hit about mid-month kept this from being a truly monster month, but as I mentioned above, any winning month is a good month.

Total Hands Played: 2673
VP$IP: 17.55%
VP$IP from SB: 16.11%
PFR: 7.33%
WtSD: 34.13%
W$SD: 48.65%
AF/Aggression Frequency-Flop: 2.72 (57%)
AF/Aggression Frequency-Turn: 2.66 (59%)
AF/Aggression Frequency-River: 2.42 (61%)

I found a way to lose a lot of money with great hands, including pocket pairs like JJ, 99, and 77. In an encouraging sign, though, when the cards ran this cold, I still found a way to end up winning 2.02 BB/100. Most of this was won early on, in what was without a doubt a lucky streak. Then, as lucky as the cards ran early is as unlucky as they ran late. Months like this are the reason we build bankrolls.

How much variance did I hit? I hit 11 full houses in October, and lost with 4 of them.

Again, overall a winning month, but one where you learn that variance is just a nibble away.

Using VP$IP to Put Opponents on a Range of Hands

2005-10-16T23:07:00.000-04:00

Frequently, players use Heads-Up Displays (HUDs) to display PokerTracker stats on their opponents in real-time. Some HUD programs available include PlayerView, GameTime Plus, and PokerAceHUD. However, many players utilize displaying stats like VP$IP and PFR in addition to auto-rate data to get a "read" on opponents.

Many players, however, don't have the slightest idea of how to interpret this data into anything useful. This article hopes to change this.

My auto-rate rules for Limit Holdem utilize a few different classes of players, including "tight," "semi-loose," "loose," and "extra-loose." But how does this specifically help you assign a player to a range of hands? The classifications alone don't really do much to help, since these classes utilize ranges of VP$IP's to place players into these categories. A tight player, for example, is any player with a VP$IP < 21%. Semi-Loose players are those with VP$IP's between 21-34.99%. This is likely the least useful classification, as so many different players fall into the category. We will examine these ranges of VP$IPs in terms of Sklansky's hand groupings to more accurately estimate the quest for knowledge contained in the second level of poker thought--"What does my opponent have?"

There are 1,326 unique combinations of 2 cards possible to make a 2 card Holdem hand. Actually, there are 2,652, but I am considering Ah-Ac to be the same hand as Ac-Ah, as we all should, as the order the cards are dealt has no bearing on the hand. To continue with the methodology, there are 6 ways to make a pocket pair, 4 ways to make a suited hand, and 12 ways to make an offsuit hand. Now, on to Sklansky's groups:

Group 1 Hands: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and AKs. There are 28 ways to make these 5 hands, 2.11% of the possible hands.
Group 2 Hands: TT, AQs, AJs, KQs, and AK. There are 30 ways to make these 5 hands, 2.26% of the possible hands.
Group 3 Hands: 99, JTs, QJs, KJs, ATs, and AQ. There are 34 ways to make these 6 hands, 2.56% of the possible hands.
Group 4 Hands: T9s, KQ, 88, QTs, 98s, J9s, AJ, and KTs. There are 50 ways to make these 8 hands, 3.77% of the possible hands.
Group 5 Hands: 77, 87s, Q9s, T8s, KJ, QJ, JT, 76s, 97s, Axs, and 65s. There are 98 ways to make these 18 hands, 7.39% of the possible hands.
Group 6 Hands: 66, AT, 55, 86s, KT, QT, 54s, K9s, J8s, and 75s. There are 68 ways to make these 10 hands, 5.13% of the possible hands.
Group 7 Hands: 44, J9, 64s, T9, 53s, 33, 98, 43s, 22, Kxs, T7s, and Q8s. There are 106 ways to make these 20 hands, 7.99% of the possible hands.
Group 8 Hands: 87, A9, Q9, 76, 42s, 32s, 96s, 85s, J8, J7s, 65, 54, 74s, K9, and T8. There are 132 ways to make these 15 hands, 9.95% of possible hands.

Taking these percentages not alone, but cumulatively, yields a different perspective on the whole VP$IP argument. Remembering that in a full ring game, between 2-5% must be added to the derived percentage to obtain a true idea of VP$IP (to compensate for looser calls from the blinds), and in a 6-max game, between 6-10% needs to be added. We'll take the mid-range for the sake of argument and use +3.5% for full ring and +8% for shorthanded tables.

A Player Plays Hands Up to	Full Ring VP$IP	6-max VP$IP	Classification
Group 1	4.11-7.11%	8.11-12.11%	Very Tight
Group 2	6.37-9.37%	10.37%-14.37%	Very Tight
Group 3	8.93-11.93%	12.93-16.93%	Tight
Group 4	12.7-15.7%	16.7-20.7%	Tight
Group 5	20.09-23.09%	24.09-28.09%	Tight/Semi-Loose
Group 6	25.22-28.22%	29.22-33.22%	Semi-Loose
Group 7	33.21-36.21%	37.21-41.21%	Semi-Loose/Loose
Group 8	43.16-46.16%	47.16-51.16%	Loose
Any Two Suited or Worse	>47%	>55%	Extra Loose

As you notice, this is by far not exact, in that ranges overlap, and that players do not have the solid cutoffs as displayed in the Sklansky groupings. This should give you a good idea, however, of hands you can expect a player to be proceeding with based on their VP$IP.

Utilizing Pre-Flop Raise Statistics

The statistic that I've felt has been overlooked by many PokerTracker and HUD users is actually not PFR, but a statistic that is not immediately visible, unless it is calculated. For example, a player with a VP$IP of 16%, and a PFR of 8% has a raising frequency of 50%. To me, the overall PFR number tells you a great deal about how aggressive a player is pre-flop, and about how to proceed with a weaker holding with this player to your left. The raising frequency statistic (which can be calculated quickly while looking at a player's stats) tells more about what hands this player will actually execute a raise with.

The difference: A player to your right has a VP$IP of 27%, and a PFR of 1%. You are dealt 55 in MP. Should you call here? Yes. You are unlikely to be raised by this player, and if you are, you know that this player likely holds a premium hand. This tells you that this hand should likely be even more of a "set it or forget it" proposition. The VP$IP tells you that this player is playing hands down to Group 6, but only raising with his monster hands (the top 1%), Unless you hit a 5 on the flop, you need to be folding. You're likely beaten, especially if an Ace or a King hits the flop.

Now, on the other hand, this player has a VP$IP of 27%, and a PFR of 18%, Same hand, 55 in MP. Calling here and putting the action on him is telling you that since this player raises 2/3 of the hands he plays, you are very possibly going to have to call another bet if you call the first one. However, it is also a signal that you are not necessarily beaten without a set. He may be raising with QJs, or even less.

Raising frequency just puts another idea into your head as far as playing a hand properly goes. Much of this information becomes less useful as players become trickier, but this information, and understanding how to use it, can go a long way into providing "reads" on players whose faces you can never see, and into getting the most from your PokerTracker license.

Surviving The Downswings

2005-10-16T09:23:00.000-04:00

Something I've learned while playing this game is that regardless of how solid a player you are, eventually the deck goes cold. Eventually, you endure downswings. I'm currently in the midst of a >50 BB downswing, which may not seem like much, but at the 5/10 level can be pretty significant.

So how do we survive these swings of variance? First, this is why we build bankrolls. We build a bankroll that is enough to comfortably play at a certain level, and we rarely if ever exceed that comfort area. This is crucial, especially if your bankroll is considered irreplaceable or you have a high "risk of ruin." Risk of ruin is the chance you'll go "poker broke." In fact, there is a formula that we use to calculate what kind of bankroll we need given a certain win rate and a certain standard deviation (obtainable within PokerTracker from the "Sessions info" tab and pushing the "More detail" button). The formula requires a scientific calculator, but here goes:

Bankroll needed = -(Standard deviation²/2 * hourly win rate) * ln (risk of ruin)

For me, here are my statistics (post downswing):

So, Bankroll needed = -($141.68²/2 * $24.82) * ln (0.01) I used 0.01 because I want to play with a 99% confidence that I will not go broke. $141.68 is my hourly standard deviation, and $24.82 is my hourly win rate at 5/10. I come up with $1862.24 as the bankroll number needed to play 5/10 within the limits of variance I set. I am well within that bankroll number so we're fine there.

Second, we NEVER go up limits to try and recoup our losses. This could be disasterous. A 50 BB downswing at 5/10 is bad enough. One at 10/20 is twice as bad. Plus we tend to want to always push harder. This doesn't get us wins--it gets us heartache and trouble. We make bad plays, out of position and lose more money.

So what does a player do who is playing well but in the middle of a downswing? Go back to basics. It happens to all of us. If you smooth the graph above out, it looks like a perfect sawtooth pattern. I win, then I have a downswing, then I win again. Play solid poker. The cards will come your way again. Don't change your game to compensate for losing. If you've moved up levels like I have, you're obviously good enough to play where you are--you don't win 4+ BB/100 hands over tens of thousands of hands from 0.50/1 to 5/10 as a fluke. Don't force things--only bad things come of it, and you become like the fish, the very people we hope to exploit. That is, you make poor plays--certainly, you may get lucky, but making -EV plays even in the short term can be nothing but -EV in the long term.

Walk away. Take some time to do something else. Clear your mind, especially of those thoughts that say, "Pocket Kings? Oh, crap, watch me lose with these again." Confidence and mindset are a lot of what seperates the fish from the sharks.

All players endure downswings--its how we push and grind through them that shows if we're a good player or a great player.

I'm In...

2005-10-11T19:24:00.000-04:00

I have registered to play in the
Online Poker Blogger Championship!

This event is powered by PokerStars.

Registration code: 6247240

Decision Made

2005-10-08T15:03:00.000-04:00

After a lot of consideration, I've decided to (in what isn't really a surprise) go semi-pro. I have a new job that I enjoy, and have no desire to take poker to be my primary income (unless of course I take down next year's main event). So what I'm going to do is essentially withdraw a chunk of my winnings every week or month or so, or dependent upon how much I win, and either save that money for the baby, the family, or just so the wife and I can do something nice.

I'm playing 5/10 online now, and have the bankroll to support higher live games. People are also beginning to ask to stake me in larger games, so I'm actually going to treat poker as a sort of supplementary income. Not full-on professional, but just an activity that makes me extra money. We'll see where this gets me now.

Dilemma and Crossroads

2005-10-06T17:51:00.000-04:00

I'm at somewhat of a major crossroads here today. Over dinner, my wife and I discussed my poker playing, and she is fully in support of me. However, she asked me what my goals were from playing.

I didn't have an answer.

I realized that I have well over $2000 in my PokerStars account doing NOTHING for me. The next step up for me in LHE is playing 10/20, and that's a HUGE step from 5/10. It's a bankroll-doubling step. At my current risk tolerance (starting bankroll of 200BB or 20 buy-ins), that would require me to have >$4000 in the account. At what point do I start taking this money, these winnings out? I've already taken some winnings out to pay for her bracelet, but what is poker really doing for me right now?

So here's my dilemma. Do I just keep playing, trying to make enough money to move up another limit to try and make more money to move up another limit to 15/30, then 30/60, then 100/200?

Or do I start taking profits from what has been a profitable game for me to right now? Do I take profits out and invest them? Spend them? What do I do from here?

This would involve me essentially becoming (by it's definition), a small-time semi-pro poker player. As I'm sure many of you know, I have a very lucrative career that pays me great money. I truthfully have enough money to stake myself in fairly high-limit games. I could easily take $2000 out of the bank and head to AC tonight and play 20/40 or 30/60. I wouldn't miss the money. But, iIs that what I really want? Or do I just want to keep poker as a profitable hobby and be happy where I am right now?

I'm not sure of the answer. I'd like to hear people's take on this. I don't have any plans to quit my job to play pro poker any time soon. I'm not by my nature a "gambler," in the sense that I also have no intention to plop down $10k to buy into the main event at the WSOP (not that I wouldn't play if I win a seat). I enjoy playing poker. Is becoming a semi-pro risking making this into a "job" or is it just creating a way to make money from my enjoyable hobby?

We Interrupt This Blog...

2005-10-02T14:33:00.000-04:00

For a good old-fashioned rant.

This has nothing to do with poker, so if you don't want to continue, stop reading now.

Last night, I went to the movies with my wife, and my brother and sister-in-law to see The Exorcism of Emily Rose. The movie was okay, but what I'm ranting about isn't the movie, it's the ignorant assholes that attend them. We go to the 10:20 pm showing last night to mainly avoid the crowds (and the kids). We get nice back row seating, and eventually, a boyfriend-girlfriend couple and their friend sit in front of us.

No problems, right? Well, the previews begin, and my wife looks at me and says, "What the hell is that flashing blue light?" I think for a second that she's lost her mind, but then I see it. Most people have problems with people who use their cell phones in the theatre. But this is a new one on me. This putz is sitting in the movie theatre with a wireless Bluetooth earpiece in her ear. An earpiece that blinks with an obnoxious blue LED every 3 seconds. In a darkened movie theatre.

Now I looked after the movie, and this idiot looked to be in her early 20's. My question is this: Who the hell needs to be connected in a movie theatre at 10:30pm on a Saturday night? Who the hell does she think she is? Someone important? What the hell could be so important that you can't put this goddamn earpiece and its annoying flashing fucking LED away for 2 goddamn hours? It got annoying enough that the other girl with them asked her to remove it. So what did she do? She moved it to her other fucking ear. I don't get it. My wife and I are both healthcare professionals, with our jobs directly affecting people's lives. If you're on call and can't stand to be away from your cell phone for 2 fucking hours, then here's a news flash--STAY THE HELL HOME. We do. My wife carries a pager 24/7, I rotate call. Nothing this little bitch could be doing could be THAT important that she needs to have this little friggin' light in her ear constantly. Does she wear it when she goes to the bathroom taking a crap? Does she wear it when she's screwing her unfortunate boyfriend? Good, then ya know what? Don't wear it in the friggin' movies.

Rant over.

I've continued playing the 5/10, and I won a $223 pot with turned quad 8's. The increased action has me playing tighter, with less speculative hands than I'd play at 3/6. My goal is essentially to play tight/solid to start, then as I gain comfort in the stakes, to introduce some more speculative hands in position.

Some numbers, for example:
0.50/1: VP$IP: 22.95%, PFR: 7.53%
1/2: VP%IP: 18.67%, PFR: 5.73%
2/4: VP$IP: 18.56%, PFR: 7.19%
3/6: VP$IP: 16.73%, PFR: 7.14%
5/10: VP$IP: 15.67%, PFR: 5.22% (only over 500 hands).

Notice how the VP$IP drops as limits go up. This is a function of not only increased limits, but as becoming a more solid player. Let's hope it continues.

Things More Important Than Poker

2005-09-28T18:32:00.000-04:00

You know, every once in a while, something happens in your life that gives you a rip-roaring dose of perspective. For me, that thing happened today. We went for our second baby checkup, which is really nothing more than meeting another doctor and having a Q&A session. Today, we got to hear our unborn child's heart beat for the first time. This faint, little, padump-padump-padump that made my heart melt. At first, he could only hear my wife's heart, but after some searching, he found our "little peanut." Baby's doing good. Mommy's doing good.

Wow, I'm really going to be a dad.

Taj Trip Report

2005-09-20T22:08:00.000-04:00

Nothin' like it. Wake up in the morning, realize, "Hey. I could be sitting at the Taj in 45 minutes." Domenic calls, and *poof* we're there. I sat at the 3/6 game for about 5 hours, taking in about $181 from the players. Had a few memorable hands, but the most memorable was the last one I was involved in. Of course, it requires some background.

I plopped down about 11am at a jovial, fun-loving table. So fun-loving that seven of the players never left. They were there when we sat, they were there when we left. One guy came in in the middle, and had top two pair cracked 5 times. Not junk 2-pair, either, I cracked him with him holding AJs on an A-J-6 flop. Of course, I had 66. He ended up losing close to $200, and he played much better than that showed. The table was so loose, so passive, so unpredictable, that I actually played "any ace, any place" with some success. Now this other guy, who sat to Domenic's right, was a real jackass. Abusing dealers, and the like. He got what he deserved. The guy to my left was a pure LAG, but one who knew what he was doing. He seemed to be a regular, and as he got bored, the action got fun:

A three way pot, the solid LAG, the asshole, and this older guy. Raised pre-flop, the LAG is in the BB. Remember that--it becomes important later. He calls and sees a flop of A-4-5. Bets and gets called. The turn is another A. Then, all hell breaks loose. Bet-raise-re-raise-cap. River card an 8. Bet-raise-re-raise-cap. Asshole flips A6, Old guy flips A-2. LAG? 2-3. Asshole was all-in on the river. He gets WAY pissed, asks the dealer for a chip to hold his seat (by saying, "What am I speaking, fuckin' Chinese?" to the Asian dealer. This got him warned), and proceeds to the ATM. He was on big-time tilt. It's a shame, because he actually could've been a solid player.

Now I get my turn. I'm in the BB, look down at 63o. Family pot--big time. 6 players come in, then the 7th, the button says, "raise." This guy was a good, talkative guy. I look at him (thinking of Piers' BB defense) and say, "Naah, I don't respect that--I call," after the SB also called. 8 players to raised pre-flop action. Flop? 6-2-3, 2 diamonds (the 6 and the 3). SB fires, I raise, get called in 6 places. The turn? Another glorious 3. SB bets--WTF? I raise, Guy to my right folds, asshole re-raises, old guy caps. I gleefully come along. River is the 8 of diamonds, putting 3 diamonds on the board. Old guy bets, I raise, asshole re-raises all-in. We both call. Asshole stands and literally slams his cards down on the table. 7 of diamonds, two of diamonds, screams at me "FLUSH!" and goes to grab the pot. Old guy shows the 10 of diamonds and the 5 of diamonds and says, "Bigger flush." I turn over my 63o and say, calmly, "Full house." Table goes nuts. The asshole kicks his chair, I offer my hand to him--he just steams away. HUGE pot to me.

I'm feeling, as Teddy KGB would say, "Very satisfied."

Overall, a great trip, a winning day, and I can't wait to do it again.

Addendum to Blind Play Article

2005-09-19T17:29:00.000-04:00

Props to MecosKing over at Bet The Pot for further refining my article.

It might have something to do with the fact that the games i play (10/20, 15/30 and 20/40) offer much more of a 'discount' from the SB than the 3/6 game. (1/3bb at 3/6 vs 1/2bb for 10 and 20, and 2/3 bb (!) in the 15) I am working on tightening up my SB play, and working on 3 betting out of the SB rather than calling (in a button steal situation) so i can get the BB out, thus increasing my chances against the button, and giving myself a bit of equity in the pot (the dead BB money)

I was thinking of including that idea in the article. The real bad SB/BB ratios pretty much kill themselves at the 3/6 game, and like you said, at 15/30, you're paying a SB of 10, so why the hell not. I'd like to actually come up with a well-phrased "rule of thumb" about loose calls from the SB, because at a 10/15 blind structure, you have to play looser from the SB just to overcome your disadvantage in the blind.

I think this is an important aspect of blind defense, although admittedly, its hard to 3 bet with QTo, A6o, and other such assorted mess. However, against a button steal, if you have a marginal hand i think the 3 bet is better than the call, because you dont want to give the BB 5:1 on his call when youve got J9o, and are in the worst position. The three bet also takes the initiative away from the raisor.

I can definitely see where 3-betting (especially a button raise) can be very useful. If a player shows ANY semblance of looseness, you almost can't respect the button raise with any kind of hand.

As for BB defense, i personally prefer the CR rather than the weak lead, only because i really have no respect for weak leads, and i will raise with overcards against one usually, and bet the turn- in other words, i will turn the pressure up, especially against a TAG who i know is capable of folding, because usually if someones gotta hand thats worth a showdown against a raisor, they will CR it. The way i look at it is that even if im on a stone bluff, if i feel my fold equity is over 50%, like on a flop of 684 or 782 or J35 against a button thief, i am going to CR the flop, be it my flush draw, some random pair, or nothing at all, for VALUE against someone who is likely to have overcards and not be able to call me more than 1/2 the time.

I think that's as much perspective as anything. With a rag flop, where I hold overcards in the BB, I would actually 3-bet that situation if someone tried to raise me. It where MY table image comes in quite handy. People using GT+ look at my numbers and see 17/8/3.2 and that 3-bet scares the hell out of them.

Thanks, Mecos for the addition!

Limit Lessons: Playing From the Blinds

2005-09-17T23:54:00.000-04:00

Over at Bet The Pot, we've had a spirited discussion about starting hands to play from the blinds in Limit Holdem. Just as some people play a LAGgy style and win, and others play tight/aggressive and win, the many opinions out there regarding playing from the blinds can drive the unsure player crazy trying to figure out what way is best for them.

Here are some key stats from my 20k+ LHE PokerTracker database:

VP$IP from SB: 25.19% overall, 19.75% at 3/6.
Win Rate from SB: -0.06 BB/Hand
Win Rate from BB: -0.14 BB/Hand

Many players were surprised at my rather low losses from the blinds, as it is natural (with forced betting) that these will be your least profitable or highest losing positions. A lot of this is attributable to my rather low VP$IP from the SB, and that I don't get goaded into doing what ESPN's Norman Chad calls "playing for a discount."

The Importance of Position

Position in the blinds in LHE is somewhat of a quandary. Pre-flop, the blinds are the last to act. You have a positional advantage over your opponents before the flop, mainly to offset the enormous positional disadvantage you have after the flop. Because you are forced to bet a full small bet, 1/2 small bet, 1/3 small bet, or 2/5 small bet pre-flop, you are given the advantage of acting last and seeing what other players do. After the flop, however, the blinds act first, making a blind essentially play under the gun (UTG) on subsequent streets.

Pre-Flop Hand Selection

This is likely the biggest debate in the poker world with regard to playing from the blinds. Some people, including Sklansky, Malmuth, and Miller, in Small Stakes Holdem (SSHE) recommend that you play essentially any two suited cards from the SB, figuring that winning with any disguised hand you may make will offset any losses you incur from playing so many hands. Piers Majestyk, a highly successful mid-limit player for many years and a frequent poster and moderator over at BTP, advocates only playing those hands from the SB that you'd play UTG. I tend (obviously by my stats) to play far more like the latter. As for the BB, obviously any unraised pot gives you a free look at the flop, while a raised pot should yield similar tendencies to playing unraised pots from the SB.

Defending Your Blind

Another controversial discussion is how and how often to defend (specifically) your BB. Here, we primarily employ and apply the "Gap Concept."

You need a better hand to call a raise with than you need to make a raise with.

A great deal of this involves recognizing the position of the raiser. By the guidelines of the Gap Concept, if you're in the BB facing an EP raiser, you should only call the raise with a hand that you would raise with from EP. Likewise for MP and LP. I take this a little further and say that if I'm in the BB, and the button raises, I'll call and "peel one off" with basically any two suited cards or better to defend my blind from a steal. A chart for consideration:

Blind Defense

The Pre-Flop Open-Raiser is in...	You should call with...
Early Position (UTG, UTG+1, UTG+2)	AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs, AQs, AK
Middle Position	AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AKs, AQs, AJs, AK, AQ, KQs, KJs
Late Position (LP, CO, Button)	Read-Dependent: Pocket Pairs, Suited Paint (face cards), Big Offsuit Broadways
Small Blind	Read-Dependent: If SB is tight, no worse than LP. If SB is loose, perhaps any two suited (requires solid post-flop play)

This may not be ideal for you, depending on how well you play post-flop (the looser you play pre-flop, the better you need to play post-flop to play and make up for weaker holdings), but it may be a solid guideline. Also, as if you couldn't tell, my poker play is not from a chart. I create the charts as a guideline, then vary my play according to my read on the players. Live, this is quite easy, especially when playing the novices that play the 3/6, 4/8, and 6/12 games in Atlantic City. Online, this requires careful observation and is enhanced with tools like PokerTracker, GameTime+ or Poker Ace HUD (PA Hud). It is vital that if you have a read on a player who is raising pre-flop, that you consider that read in every decision you make from calling the raise to your post-flop play. Without a read on a player, it is undoubtedly better to tighten up either relatively or absolutely in blind defense. Better to save a small bet now than to cost yourself small bets and big bets later.

To a 3-bet, just as you would suspect, fold everything but absolute premium hands like AA, KK, QQ, and AKs. You never want to call 2 or more bets cold without an absolute premium holding.

Pre-Flop Blind Play Summary

You should play nearly as tight from the Small Blind as you do from Under the Gun (UTG)

The looser you play any position pre-flop, the better and more efficient your post-flop play needs to be.

Defending your blind is easier to do when the pre-flop raiser is in a later position.

When defending your blind, apply the Gap Concept and only call with hands better than you would raise with from the raiser's position.

If you play well post-flop, and have a read on your opponent, defend your blind more aggressively against a LP or SB raiser.

If you're 3-bet, and you don't hold a monster, let it go--you're likely waybehind.

Post-Flop Play

DISCLAIMER: I play extremely aggressively post-flop and bet or raise nearly half the flops I see. If you can't let go of a marginal hand or you tend to chase too far, be cautious with the following advice. It can lose you a great deal of money.

A great deal of post-flop play is situation-dependent. For example, in a tighter game, where you only have 2 or 3 to the flop, and especially when the players to the flop are in late position and/or your blind counterpart, it is just about a guarantee that if I hit ANY part of the flop, backdoor flush draw, gutshot straight draw, any pair or even sometimes just a draw to a draw, I will lead out and bet. Many players see aggression from an early position player as representing strength, that your "BB special" hit the flop hard. In my experience in the tighter games at Stars, many players will fold to aggression from the blinds, and those that don't will either raise you, putting you to a decision of whether to call or raise or to dump it right there at a minimal cost, or call you, and essentially give you a free card on the turn. I get a large amount of folds on the flop, as my table image is tight-aggressive, and players figure me for a solid hand or that I hit the flop. Flops that are ragged, without draws, and featuring lower cards are usually best for stealing pots on the flop.

With players remaining in EP, you must be more careful taking a stab a pot without a decent hand or at least a draw to a good hand. Bluff those players you feel will fold (totally read-dependent), play cautiously around those players you feel are very strong. Regardless, I'm usually taking a stab at any pot I have any part of. I feel this is profitable mainly due to the high number of folds I get from opponents, but also to the fact that I'm playing mainly solid hands from the SB, and that I'm not paying anything over and above my blind from the BB, and that I'm showing early position aggression with a tight-solid-aggressive table image.

On the turn, the number of variables obviously increase, and sometimes a turn lead-out bet is enough to get rid of a straggly player who is hanging around, especially from the SB or in LP. You also need to start thinking that you may end up showing a hand down.

More PT stats:

From the BB: Win% in Position: 23.54%, WtSD: 24.66%, W$SD: 52.80%, PFR%: 5.29%
From the SB: Win% in Position: 12.36%, WtSD: 37.88%, W$SD: 51.00%, PFR%: 5.95%

What these indicate from here is that first, I do win more than expected by probability from the blinds, and far more than expected from the BB. I only play full-ring games, and it also indicates that I'm not showing down a lot of hands from the BB. I'm winning a majority of those hands before a showdown. This is a testament to not only my aggressive play, but to the weakness of my opponents. From the SB, I'm still winning more than my share at showdown, and that is solely a function of the hands I play in that position and their relative strength.

If the pot is multi-way through the turn, without a decent hand or again, a read on your opponent, you may need to consider dropping your hand, as the price for your bluff or semi-bluff now increases to at least a full big bet, and perhaps another one on the river.

Post-Flop Blind Play Summary

If you're in an unraised pot pre-flop, and only have 2 or 3 players to the flop, take a stab at early aggression if you catch ANY part of the flop, including having just overcards.

Be more cautious dealing with EP limpers and tight MP limpers when showing post-flop aggression.

If you catch a solid hand on the flop, especially if you've been aggressive defending your blind previously, play it hard.

Don't get married to a hand in the blinds, regardless of how premium it is. You're out of position. Remember, without an A or a K on the flop, AK is nothing more than a drawing hand.

I hope this provides some insight on how I play from the blinds, and I hope it shows that while it's nearly impossible over the long term to defeat the blinds, it certainly is possible to minimize your losses and maximize your potential profit.

Limit Lessons--Slowplaying

2005-09-16T23:21:00.000-04:00

To begin with, I'd like to mention that slowplaying anything can be foolish and dangerous, especially in Limit Holdem where bets aren't as big and it becomes more difficult to drive people out of the pot. Slowplay a lot and you WILL GET SUCKED OUT ON. Disclaimer finished.

Slowplaying is when you play a hand weakly to suck people in for future rounds of betting. Check-calling with a very strong hand is an example of slowplaying. It has in essence, the opposite desired effect as the check-raise. A check-raise is used to drive people out of the pot, where as proper slowplaying keeps potentially weaker hands in so you can profit more from them later.

From Sklansky's Theory of Poker, there are requirements that need to be fulfilled to allow for slowplaying. First, you need a strong to monster-level hand. This is obvious. Top trips on a rainbow, no-straight possibility board, things like that. Second, you're giving a free card (which can be a cardinal sin in LHE). This free card should have a reasonable expectation of giving an opponent a second-best hand to yours. Thirdly, and what is really part of the second point, there should be a low likelihood of any free card you give to create a better hand for your opponent, or even a draw to a better hand that yours. Also, you must be reasonably sure that your aggression will drive people out of the pot, while your passivity will keep them in. In addition, it is best to slowplay when the pot has not grown to be very large.

The goal in slowplaying is to make an opponent with a second-best hand commit as many chips to the pot as possible before revealing your strength, preferably with the absolute nuts.

A great example of slowplaying:

You're in MP in a tight game with two black eights. A player limps before you, you limp, the button limps, and the BB checks his option.
The flop comes 8-4-4, with two clubs. A bet here frequently would drive players out, especially in tighter games. The EP player checks to you, you check, and the button leads out with a bet. You immediately put him on a flush draw, but you currently have the nut full house. The BB calls, and the EP player folds. You should just call the bet here, allowing anyone on a flush draw to hit their flush on the next card. The turn card brings the 3 of clubs, putting 3 clubs on the board, and no possibilities for a better full house. The only hand that beats you here is 44 (unlikely). It is a reasonable assumption that your full house is the best hand here. The action is on you, and you check, continuing your slowplay. The button leads out, and the BB calls. At this point, you're at a decision. Do you spring your trap now, and hope that one of the players is holding the ace-high flush or do you wait one more street in the hope that someone else won't potentially catch a higher full house? You check. The button bets. The BB calls.

In this case, you spring a check-raise on your opponents, and the button caps, while the BB folds. The river is the 7 of diamonds. You lead out and are raised by the button. You have the stone cold nuts here unless he holds 44. He re-raises, you cap, he calls and shows Ac-Jc for the nut flush. You show your full house and rake in the nice pot.

Slowplaying can really work in your favor in the right circumstances. However, it can backfire when your trap springs back on you. Allowing someone to catch a better hand, or not springing the trap at the right time could be very bad for your bankroll. Generally in lower-limit games, it is best to only slowplay when you have the absolute nuts and you're sure that your opponent could only make a second best hand. Otherwise, you may find yourself on the wrong side of that pot-dragging.

Thursday $30+3 LHE Tourney Report

2005-09-15T14:58:00.000-04:00

Well, I came to defend a title, and failed. I got bounced unceremoniously in 101st place out of 135, not even making the first break. That doesn't make me real happy, and I've effectively shut it down for the weekend in response. There's no use playing when you're on tilt.

This will be a short report, so just sit back, relax, and enjoy the carnage.

Level 1 (20/40):
1:32pm (T1470)-- You know, this could really have been the thing to set me off and get me off my game. I raise in the CO with As 9s, and get 2 callers, the BB and the button. The flop comes Ad-Td-9d. Two pair, but crap--a flush draw on the board. The BB checks, I bet, button and BB both call. Hmmm. Th on the turn. BB checks, I bet, button and BB both call. Hmmmm. 3c on the river. BB checks, I check, button checks. The button was so much of a fish, his mom must have been a mackerel. I show my two pair, the button shows J9o for a pair of nines (?), and the BB shows me 6d-2d for an Ace-high, 6-kicker flush. I know he couldn't have laid it down, but damn....calling a raise with 62s? or J9o for that matter? In a prophetic mark of what I was dealing with, both of these idiots busted out even before I did.

1:39pm (T1500)--Another one. The guy who was the button previously is my final opponent here. QQ in LP, I raise it up, and get called cold by the fish and in 2 other places. 4 see the flop 5d-2d-Ts. It gets checked to me, I lead out, and only fish-boy calls. Turn is the 8s. I lead, he calls. River is the Jh. I lead, he calls, and flips JJ. Nice 2-outer, jackass.

Level 2 (30/60):
1:51pm (T1155)--This time from the button, I get Ac Ks. The fish from hand 1 open raises UTG, and I re-raise to isolate him, successfully. Flop comes Kc-8s-2s. He checks, I lead, he calls. Turn card is the 3s. He checks, I lead, he calls. The river is the Ts. He leads out, and I can't believe what I'm seeing, so I call. He turns over As-2d for the runner-runner nut flush. Mouse goes flying into the wall.

1:58pm (T885)--From the SB, and tilting a little, I pick up Js-9s. It's raised UTG and called by the button, myself, and the fish in the BB. Flop is 4c-7h-9c. I lead out and get raised by the original pre-flop raiser. My senses tell me to let it go, but the tilt monster calls. The turn card is the lovely 9h. I lead out and get called by both, The As river bothers me a tad, but I lead anyway, the fish folds and the original raiser sees my trip 9s. He had TT and lost a T480 pot. Yay me.

Level 3 (50/100):
2:05pm (T1185)--AQs UTG for a raise, flop comes Q-9-9, I bet and take down the baby pot. Again, yay me.

2:06pm (T1260)--The killer. A9o in the SB. I get the player UTG (who is loose) to call, and I raise it. BB (the fish frm the second hand) calls my raise, as does UTG. The flop comes 3c-8s-Ah. Yahtzee. I bet, fish calls. Turn is the 6c. I bet, he calls. River is the 4c. I bet, he raises, I make the crying call expecting to see the club flush--no. He turns over 4h-3h for the rivered two pair. Mouse destroyed. I'm crippled with T760 at this point.

Level 4 (100/200):
2:10pm (T610)--The situation's dire now. I pick up KQs in the BB and it's raised by the button. Blind defender to the rescue! I defend my blind to see a flop of 8-2-2. Another 2 falls on the turn, and a J on the river. He, of course, flips over AQo to take all my chips, and end my tournament.

This is no way for a champion to be eliminated. I am fully tilted now, and I figure playing now would be counterproductive to my bankroll. Enjoy the weekend all. I may write a strategy post over the weekend on playing from the blinds, but as for playing, I'll see you at the tables later...much later.

PokerStars Monday $10+1 LHE Tourney Report

2005-09-12T17:01:00.000-04:00

I played in this morning's Limit Tourney, and took a chop in the final 3. I had a big chiplead and ended up chopping for $424.50. By the time support got to the table to enforce the deal we had made, I was down to 3rd place, and I had to fight for it, but the chop got done appropriately.

Report:

Level 1: 20/40 blinds:
10:05am (T1320): I take a couple hits early folding to raises and re-raises when my hands miss the board. Hands like ATs, AKo just missed and I ate a little chip loss.

Level 2: 30/60 blinds:
10:18am (T860): My AJ runs into JJ. Bad news. I'm way closer to the bottom of the leaderboard than the top.

10:24am (T785): Yay! A pot win! A small win, but it equals the number of showdown wins I had last tourney.

Level 3: 50/100 blinds:
10:34am (T1170): My A9s flops two pair and holds up. There may be life!

10:36am (T1635): I get KJs in the BB, flop the open ended and river the straight. No resistance, so sure, I'll lead. A nice pot win for me, and...

Level 4: 100/200 blinds:
10:45am (T2170): AQ wins me an uncontested pot on the flop. Rollin'!

I take a couple small hits, until---

Level 5: 150/300 blinds:
11:11am (T2020): Rockets on the button. One caller to my pre-flop raise. I flop the set with a 6-A-9 rainbow. I lead out (after his check) and get called. The turn card fills me up, I check it. Damnit---I missed a bet. The river brings an 8. He leads, I raise, he folds. I have to show it. Yay me!

I stay pretty much out of the way, folding and playing tight until:

Level 6: 200/400 blinds:
11:22am (T2695): I look down to see 2 red nines. I open raise in LP after two limpers. I get re-raised by the BB, and call, just me and him to the flop. I flop the set with a 9-7-T board (2 clubs). He leads into me and I raise him, fearing a flush or straight draw. He calls. The river puts the King of clubs on the board (3 clubs). I get nervous here, especially when he leads out with a 400 chip bet. I flat call him. Then, the beautiful King of diamonds falls on the river. He leads, I raise him, he re-raises me (??--I'm worried about KK here, but he could have hit a flush and I could just go crazy here.), then I re-raised him, going all-in. He shows AKo, and MHIG. I drag the T3195 pot.

Level 7: 300/600 blinds:
11:36 am (T4390): My AKo wins a pot on the flop uncontested after someone calls my pre-flop raise then bails on my lead out.

11:45 am (T4390): Mostly all blind play until my 88 runs into a turned flush.

11:46 am (T2890): KQo in EP. I open-raise with it (just to vary things up), and flop top two. It holds up for a nice pot. Another player flopped a flush draw and missed all the way to the river.

11:47 am (T7390): Next hand--rockets. My rockets hold and I take down ANOTHER great pot. I had T10540 in chips, and I'm think ing--"Hey, maybe I can make the money here."

Level 8: 400/800 blinds:
11:52 am (T8317): Rockets again. They hold again, and I eliminate a player in the process. Some more blind play until this gem of a hand that hurt so bad, I had to post it's full history:

11:56 am (T9617):
PokerStars Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind t400 (8 handed)
CO (t6939)
Button (t3119)
SB (t11350)
BB (t13710)
UTG (t13700)
UTG+1 (t2510)
MP1 (t6027)
Hero (t9617)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with As, Tc.

UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB, t2200) 5h, Kc, 8h (2 players)

UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB, t3000) Ah (2 players)

UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (5.75 BB, t4600) Jd (2 players)

UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB (t6200)
UTG has Td Qh (straight, ace high).
Hero has As Tc (one pair, aces).

UTG wins 7.75BB.

I paired my ace on the turn, and he called 800 chips with Th, Qc to hit a gutter. He was down the whole way, and hit a 4-outer. Punk.

12:04pm (T5817): Revenge is mine. Rockets in the small blind. They hold up again for a great pot win.

Level 9: 600/1200 blinds:
12:14pm (T9817): QJs UTG (I know, I know). I flop top pair, and I show aggression all the way to the river where my opponent gives up the hand. He asked me if I had rockets again. I told him no. He tilted real good.

From that point, I was only involved in blind play, not really gaining or losing a lot until these back-to-back hands:

Level 11: 1200/2400 blinds:
12:53pm (T9412): Q7s in the BB. I limp with the SB who redefines LAGgy play, and I miss the flop. He'll bet with anything, so I call. A queen falls on the turn. He bets, I raise, he calls. Another queen on the river, I go all-in and take down the pot uncontested. Yes, you heard that right. He walked away from a T16800 pot so he wouldn't call T1012 on the river.
12:54pm (T17812): AJo in the SB. I flat call, flop an ace, and win another pot.

Level 12: 1600/3200 blinds:
12:56pm (T26212): Pocket 3's UTG. The way this table is, I call with them. Another lag raises another T330 and is all-in, so I call that. Flop the set, turn the boat. Capped betting on the river. My 3's full beats his Q6o for trips. I now have T52072, and hold the chip lead!
1:04pm (T51272): QJs in the BB. I re-raise with it to isolate a player successfully. He's the small stack at the table with just 10 players left in the tourney. I flop a gutshot with a backdoor flush draw, lead out, and he mucks his pocket 7's.

Blind play (and hand-for-hand) continues until:

Level 13: 2000/4000 blinds:
1:18pm (T64872): QQ in the small blind wins me a T10000 pot uncontested on the flop.

1:21pm (T74872): KK in the big blind next orbit. I 3-bet pre-flop, 3-bet the flop (5-9-8, all hearts, with me holding the King of hearts), and lead out with a caller on the turn and the river. MHIG, and I win T25000.

A lot of folding on the flop as we reach the final table, and I build a chip stack (shown above) to over T150K. I offer a deal starting at the 5-handed point. Everyone wouldn't accept until we got 3-handed. I was getting low on chips (dropped to 3rd), when we finalized the deal and chopped the pot evenly for a nice profit on the tourney. I ended up finishinig 3rd, but got better than 2nd place money with the even chop. I felt like I played well, and overall, my first MTT final table was a success.

Limit Lessons: Utilizing the Check-Raise

2005-09-08T14:42:00.000-04:00

According to Sklansky and Malmuth's Holdem Poker for Advanced Players (HEPAP), the check-raise is "the play of checking your hand with the intention of raising on the same round after an opponent bets." S&M continue with the following: "...the check-raise should often be used to exclude opponents from competing for the pot. Sometimes, in limit holdem, this is the most desirable characteristic of check-raising."

According to my PokerTracker database (get your copy of PokerTracker by clicking the logo on the front page), I've executed check-raises on all three post-flop streets. Why, and what does the check-raise accomplish? Again, according to S&M, raising in and of itself can serve 5 purposes:

1) To get more money in the pot.
2) To drive players out.
3) To bluff (or semi-bluff)
4) To get a free card.
5) To get information (not really applicable here)

The check-raise is used similarly, but for its shock value alone, can serve as an even more effective tool than by simply raising alone.

1) To get more money in the pot: The C/R is used this way when you have a monster hand. Most weak players figure that they've already committed one bet to the pot, so why not commit a second? For example, I picked up AJs in EP and raised. The flop came J-5-9 rainbow, and I let out and was called. The turn brought an Ace, completing the rainbow. This hand is a monster. Unless the opponent has a set, you have the nuts with top two pair. I checked the turn, my opponent bet, and I raised him. He then called the bet, as he had already committed $15 to the $40 pot, and couldn't justify folding for another $6. The turn paired the 9, I bet, he called with Aces and Nines, and I took down the pot.

2) To drive players out: You have a solid hand, but a vulnerable hand, and you want others to get the hell out of your way. I picked up K8s in MP, and limped. The flop came 7-K-K in a 5-way pot. I checked, the button bet, and I raised. Two of the 5 players folded. I wanted someone who paired their 7 still in, but anyone with any other overpair out.

3) To bluff (or semi-bluff): I wouldn't use the check-raise to bluff, because you're throwing 2 bets away with nothing. The only time that it can be effective is if you feel your opponent is weak, and that he/she will fold to your check-raise.

4) To get a free card: The check-raise, when you utilize it properly is quite the scare tactic. Most players will back down from you unless they have a monster hand. It is the tendency of players to check to the raiser. An opportunistic check-raise can force your opponent to check the next street to you and give you a free card.

The check-raise is an effective weapon to keep in your arsenal in Limit Holdem. Learn to use it properly in each situation, and become a more profitable player.

Wednesday Night $30+$3 LHE Tourney Report

2005-09-08T09:25:00.000-04:00

I decided during the day that I would play in this tourney, my first really significant online tourney except for the WSOP Main Event FPP Qualifier last May. I started off with this really LAGgy guy to my right, and he somewhat dictated the pace early on--not that it would've mattered--I was totally card-dead.

11:01 pm (T1580): I steal a couple blinds, and am starting off well.

11:06 pm (T1620): I flop top two with AJs, but get no action on my turn bet. Not bad, though.

11:16 pm (T1350): I get pushed off a pot by Mr. LAG. I have AJo, flop is A-T-T. I raise pre-flop, raise the flop, and he re-raises me. When he leads out on the turn, I let the hand go, figuring him on KT or the like. Meh.

11:26 pm (T1005): Best hand of the night. QQ in the SB. LAG boy of course raises from the button. I oblige and re-raise him. The flop is the beautiful J-8-Q, but they're all clubs. The turn is the King of clubs, I bet, he raises, and I flat call him. The river completes the flush on board, and I lead out with him calling. He shows AJ of hearts, and splits the pot. This guy was behind the whole way. Maybe I should've re-raised the turn--would you have re-raised it? Didn't think so.

11:27 pm (T1140): Next hand, I raise with QJ on the button. Flop is 6-6-5. I lead out and get called. The turn brings a Queen. I lead out and am called again in two places. The river is the Ace of hearts, and it gets checked around. LAG-boy shows me A4o to beat me. The second caller shows 84o, finishing 3rd in a 3-horse race. I'm pissed at this point.

11:39 pm (T1290): I pick up a nice pot with AQs when a Queen falls on the turn, and all I get are folds.

11:49 pm (T915): I get 33 in MP, and flop a set. No callers. Damnit.

12:20 am (T815): Beginning to run for my life at this point. Blinds are 75/150, I raise in MP with QJ (tricky, aren't I), and pick up a pot with a turn bet with just my overcards.

12:29 am (T1040): Q8o in the BB. I open-raise pre-flop, get a call from UTG. Bet the flop on a bluff and I take it down. Hey, any way you can, right?

12:30 am (T1440): Same thing with A8o from the button.

12:37 am (T1390): Big pot win. I pick up KJ on the button, and open-raise. The flop comes 9-5-K rainbow. UTG bets. I raise and take down the pot.

12:40 am (T2590): In better shape. I just noticed that I outlasted PokerStars' uber-star Jennicide. I pick up AJs UTG+1, raise it up, and when an Ace falls on the flop , take down the pot with a bet.

12:43 am (T2440): The crippler. Our table chip leader (think he was #2 overall) took me for most of my chips. AJs on the button. I raise pre-flop, and get two callers (CO-1--the chip leader, and the SB). I flop a nut flush draw, with a T-7-3 flop, bigger cards being spades. Chip leader bets, and I raise. I still get called...(is trouble afoot?). Turn pairs a 7, I bet and get called. River is a 4. It's checked around to me, so I take one last stab at the pot. Chip leader calls, and flips over K3o. He called me down with BOTTOM PAIR. Worst part is that this guy got hit with the deck all night. Limps with Q2--flop comes Q-Q-6, turn is the deuce. Stuff like that.

12:47 am (T340): All-in with A4o from UTG, I don't improve and I go home in 37th place of 139 players.

Not too bad for being card-dead. An amazing fact: I finished 37th in the tourney (with the top 18 getting paid) without winning a single hand at showdown. I split the pot with the QQ hand. Other than that, not a single win of mine went to showdown. 37th is a sort of moral victory, though. I outlasted Mr. LAG from earlier, and played fairly well despite my lack of cards. A fun time. I'd obviously rather have finished ITM, but overall, encouraging signs.

An observation: The blind structures in the limit tournies on Stars are BRUTAL. At no point did the chip leader have more than 25BB, and the average stack moved between 6-8BB during basically the whole tournament. It moved the tourney fast, but it turned it into a card-catching contest at times.

"Reward the Retard Day" at Stars

2005-09-07T10:27:00.000-04:00

It was bound to happen. You can't run as hot as I've been and not have it happen to you. Today, it happened. I lost $100 on a 3/6 table--here's some of the carnage:

AKs loses to KJo. Guy called my raise cold from the SB.
AQs loses to BOTH QTo and QJo. QJo called 3 bets cold to get there.
88 loses to K8o. At least he just checked the BB.

My VP$IP in the session was 10.81%, and I won one hand. I won with 77 when a guy called down with his AJo to the river and missed. It happens. Back to the drawing board.

The Difference Between 2/4 and 3/6

2005-09-07T09:18:00.000-04:00

You know, I was playing last night (because insomnia is such a bitch), clearing my Stars reload at 3/6. I had my first downswing in a while, losing a couple tough hands, but finishing my session up a paltry $13. I wouldn't even be mentioning it, but at one point, I was up by $100, continuing my streak of doubling buy-ins at the 3/6 game. I went from that peak down through a monster streak of getting decent hands cracked by better ones, and by a bad read or two along the way.

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9d, 9s.
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 5s, Ks, 7h (5 players)

BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.16 BB) 8h (2 players)

MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls.

River: (9.16 BB) 7s (2 players)

MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 11.16 BB

MP3 has Qd Qh (two pair, queens and sevens).

Hero has 9d 9s (two pair, nines and sevens).

Outcome: MP3 wins 11.16 BB.

A bad read--the guy had been LAGging it up, trying to run over the table. Doesn't he know that's my job? He mustn't have gotten the memo.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Qd, Qs.
3 folds, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero caps, CO calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 9d, Ad, 4s (2 players)

Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) Js (2 players)

Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.66 BB

No showdown. CO wins 7.66 BB.

Another poor read--he showed me TT. I almost threw my monitor out the window.

So, I get ready to shut off the computer, check my bonus status, and see that I only need 3 FPPs to complete the bonus. So I decide to finish it off at 2/4. I buy in woth $60 and check out a table where the "% see flop" is about 32%. I have no idea how I ever won money there. AA cracked after an EP raise, called COLD by a LP player with K5s. He caught a king on the flop, called another bet, and bookended his 5 on the river. I ended up down $40 on a 2/4 table. It could just be because it's bonus-clearing time, but for a guy who runs over 3/6 tables like Andy Reid on his way to the all-you-can-eat buffet, it was discouraging to be taken down so crappily. The session dropped my winrate at 2/4 down to just 1.98 BB/100--nothing to sneeze at, but FAR lower than at any other limit. Enough to depress me, so I sulked off to bed.

Good news: I cleared the bonus.
Bad news: I donked away $40 of it to the fish at 2/4.

They'll pay for it today.

Happy Labor Day!

2005-09-05T15:07:00.000-04:00

That banner will be appearing with every post for a while, so give whatever you can afford. This is our own people who benefit from your donation of time or money. Please. It's a worthwhile cause, and if you don't want to give that way, play in one of the many Katrina Relief tournaments around.

PokerStars Katrina Relief Tourney Schedule:

Monday, September 12, 2005, 9:30 pm: $5
Wednesday, September 14, 2005, 9:30 pm: $20
Thursday, September 15, 2005, 9:30 pm: $50
Friday, September 16, 2005, 9:30 pm: $100

Playing some 3/6 on Stars, I hit back-to-back full houses. But these weren't any ordinary boats. They were FLOPPED boats. Back-to-back hands. I had been Mr. Rock until then, 22 hands at the table, VP$IP of 0%--just got nothing. Dealt 88. Flop? A-8-A. I check the boat, then watch as the ultimate scare card comes on the turn--another ace. I bet, opponents fold. Whew. Next hand, JJ. Flop? 5-5-J. Nothing like flopping the stone-cold nuts. I ended up winning a 13BB pot with that against somebody with AJo.

I had never had that happen before. Sweet.

Finally saw Wedding Crashers last night. Side-splittingly funny. Vince Vaughn is just hilarious.

As of right now, over 3500 hands, I'm beating the 3/6 at Stars at a >5BB/100 win rate. I know it isn't sustainable, but damn. The 3/6 was my schneid when I first tried to move up. Now I've been slaughtering it. I'm playing patient, ABC poker and winning. That's the key. Don't get too high, don't get too low. I'm closing in on my goal to move up again to 5/10, but I'm taking that slower than I have before. It's a big psychological step, and without the emotional crutch of a 4/8 game spread at Stars, moving up too fast and enduring a couple shitty sessions could be extremely bad.

With that being said, my 2/4 winrate dropped down below 2.5 BB/100. It almost makes me laugh.

As of right now, my overall winrate is at 4.76 BB/100 from 0.50/1 up to 3/6. Poker life is pretty good.

The BIG Announcement

The time has come for my huge announcement. As most of you know, I was recently married to the love of my life. We just officially found out that we are expecting our first child! A baby shark is on the way! The wife is due April 25, 2006--so you can say that the honeymoon was a really good time/ Yes, our little one is a honeymoon baby, and I couldn't be happier. Everybody's doing just fine, and I'll of course keep my three readers up to date on all the information!

Give Until it Helps...

2005-09-03T12:26:00.000-04:00

Dabbling Here And There

2005-09-02T16:09:00.000-04:00

Well I've been playing a bit of Omaha Hi at Empire, some NLHE, and even some O8B. I haven't really had any big wins or big losses, so my poker time has pretty much been a wash, with me just gaining some experience with playing with the fish. I've enjoyed myself, and I've come to like Omaha hi, especially when people know how to play the game.

Next on the agenda is the PokerStars reload (20% up to $120)--I'll be taking money from Empire and shoving it into Stars later today, then it'll be back to my Limit ways over at the 3/6 full ring games. Notes on playing at Empire--players are TERRIBLE. They will call, call, call--you'll stack them sometimes, they'll suck out on you others. Overall, I'm not especially pleased with the site, though I have heard that higher limit games are far better quality.

I also need a casino trip. Badly.

Also, a plea. I personally wasn't affected by the tragedy unfolding along the Gulf Coast. I do know some who were. Regardless of whether or not you know someone who was affected, this is a tragedy that (if it hasn't already) WILL affect all Americans. If you have the resources, please donate money to the American Red Cross.

Use this link to donate directly to the Hurricane Katrina relief efforts:

Donate Money Here!

This will send money directly to the Red Cross, where it will be used for a fantastic cause. Charity begins at home, folks. Here's our chance to do something good in our own community. I've already sent money. If you have the resources, please join me in helping those who Mother Nature put a real bad beat on.

Details on the project are upcoming...I'll let you know as soon as I can! Meanwhile, enjoy the tables and the long weekend!

Review of Empire Poker and Bonus Whoring

2005-08-25T14:30:00.000-04:00

Empire's a Party skin, which basically means you're playing at Party. They offer their own bonuses (bonii?) and have their own structures, but you're playing at Party. Let me just say that most bonuses (based on numbers of raked hands) clear fastest at 1/2 than anywhere else. Let me also say that this doesn't imply that they're +EV. On the contrary, you'll sit at a given table and find 4 players with VP$IP's over 50%. They'll usually have aggression factors less than 1, too. And they will call, call, call, and draw, draw, draw on you until the cows come home. You'll win over time, but short term, be prepared for some ungodly variance.

The free money aside, I've found that you either like Party (and skins) or you don't. The NL games are as juicy as they come, and for that, I like Empire. Unless you're playing 2/4, 3/6 or higher limits, and unless you have plenty of blood pressure medication, you might want to skip it, except for a little dabble here and there. That being said...

BONUS CODE NUTS17153!!!!

It's not bad, overall, and it's a change from Stars and UB. Now that the juicy-ass reload is over with (last day to clear is September 3, if I recall), the level of play should settle a bit, and make the site more fun, and get that aquarium restocked.

I finished the 1000 raked hands for the $100 reload bonus in just 2 days (3 and 4 tabling 1/2 and $25NL), and didn't bring much to show for it, but up is still up, no matter how you slice it. I might venture over to Full Tilt and see what they have to offer. Only concern for me is that they don't usually have a ton of games going on at the same time. We'll see--I still have some bonus dollars to clear at UB, so time will tell.

I'd post the most memorable beat, but it's not fit for human consumption. Let's just summarize it thus: AA cracked by EP player's 95o. He called the blind, then called 2 more bets cold. Then, he called every bet (with me raising on the flop as well, calling 2 more bets cold) to the river, hitting a runner-runner straight. The hand cost me $14, but so much more in silent tilt, as I nearly put my head through the wall after reading his "HAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHA" and "see, aces don't always win" in the chat box. I wish that one day I could catch one of these clowns at a B&M. Better yet, I wouldn't mind catching him just outside a B&M.

I'm getting involved in a huge project within the next few weeks. I can't share any details now, but when I can share what's happening, I'll let both my readers know.

Well, back to the grind. If you want to harass me, chat with me, or just drop a ridiculous beat on me (as I'm writing this, I just lost set-over-set hands with 88 and 99 respectively on two tables one right after the other--ugh), I'm on Empire as Tiburon723. Enjoy, and may the tables be good to you all!

Bonus Hunters Unite!

2005-08-24T15:03:00.000-04:00

Just to let everyone know, Empire Poker is offering a 100% reload bonus to $100. It requires 10x raked hands within 10 days, so if you're an active player with an Empire account, this might be for you! Bonus Code for the reload is PLAYAUG.

If you don't have an Empire account, then what the hell are you waiting for? Bonus Code: NUTS17153 will get you a 20% deposit bonus up to $100! Go! Now! Deposit to open the account, then reload with $100! Free money! Go get it!

Great Advice from the Blogfather

2005-08-17T12:23:00.000-04:00

Reading Iggy's blog today and saw the following nugget of phenomenally great understated information:

"Id say always play at limits that will allow you to survive a losing streak. Losing streaks are the barometers for me. Show me a player on a winning streak and I wont be able to rate him. Show me a player who is in a losing streak and Ill be able to tell you if he can play."
Jennifer Harmon

I nearly choked on my drink at the boat this weekend upon hearing a sunglasses-wearing kid yell at an old man, "How the hell can you call a $60 raise preflop with K9?!"
The old man just laughed at him while scooping up the monster pot.
I was appalled - the last time I heard that type of impending tilt comment was from Phil Hellmuth on the WSOP DVD.And boy, did the kid go on tilt. Downright Tilty. Outplayed by that old man everytime they were in a pot together after that. Twas ugly and his game fell completely apart.

But I liked the kid. So later, over a smoke, I tried to give him a few pointers.

#1 Never, ever tap the glass.
#2 Don't make the mistake of playing directional poker - focusing your action on one guy.
#3 Lose the sunglasses - they smell like fear - save em for the WSOP
#4 Feeling ANY sense of immediacy in poker is a BAD thing. I'm talking cash games, here, obviously. Let me say that again. Immediacy in poker = bad thing.

From my perspective, bad beats are the sign of a good game, damnit. I want players chasing. I want players calling two bets cold on the flop without proper odds. It's why I don't have to work for the Man anymore. Just accept it when they hit and move on. Don't freaking tilt, damnit.

In my first month of blogging, I posted this:

1) Other players bad play will make me far more money than my fancy or brilliant plays.
2) The guy that leads with a bet on the turn, after not betting previously, often has a big hand.
3) Folding costs me nothing pre-flop. If it's a close decision, I can't go far wrong by folding.

Fantastic advice, Iggy. Bad beats happen to all of us--its how we handle them and move on that make us truly great players...

And even more brilliance by HDouble:

The Three Types of Information in PokerWhile the term "information" usually applies to a broad spectrum of concepts, it seems to me that there are different categories of information, based on how this information is acquired. Here are three different categories for information in poker, based on my observation of the game:

1. Poker knowledge: Poker knowledge refers to information regarding odds and probability, hand distributions, and starting hand strength. This type of information is usually learned by studying books and the mathematical aspect of poker, although it can also be learned through experience. This category of information describes basic facts that are independent of game conditions, and represent the "fundamental" concepts of poker.
For example, it is a fact that Q7o is a slight favorite against a random hand heads up. This basic fact, if known by one player and unknown by the opponent, gives the knowledgable player a slight edge.
Information asymmetry, as related to poker knowledge, is based on the fact that one player has studied poker more than his opponents. Like the sports-betting world, this information is publicly available to all players, and the player that spends the most time analyzing the information (if done intelligently) will have the biggest edge.
The surprising thing about poker knowledge is the amount of disagreement over basic concepts. A quick read of this threadshows that two people who have spent years thinking about the game can't even come to an agreement about the optimal strategy for playing AQo.
The lesson here is that if two experts cannot even come to an agreement about fundamental poker concepts, the level of information asymmetry that is possible between an expert poker player and and average player can be very large.

2. Poker experience: Poker experience refers to the amount of information absorbed or collected during a player's time at the table; it concerns mainly internalized information that applies to specific situations. While poker knowledge relates more to rules independent of game conditions, experience teaches an observant player how to use the information given off by a group of signals communicated by a table full of players. The infinite number of patterns and rhythms of the game can't be learned from a book, and the poker player as information collector is rewarded for his awareness of these subtle aspects of the game.
Physical tells are an example of information that can only be learned through experience. While a player can learn general concepts like "strong means weak" and "a player who covers his mouth with his hand after a bet is usually bluffing," there are an infinite number of subtle, player-specific tells that can be learned from a book, the many ways these players uniquely communicate these tells cannot be summarized in a book.
The information asymmetry in the experience category is proportional to the amount of experience possessed by the players involved in the game. However, an observant, intelligent player who does a good job of analyzing his collection of experienced data can "catch up" to a player with far greater experience who is less observant.
In terms of gaining an edge in experience, there is no proxy for putting in time at the tables and being a part of the infinite combinations of variables that occur in any poker game.

3. Opponent specific information: Like poker experience, opponent specific information comes from observation of the behavior of individual players over time. In the past, this type of information could only be obtained by physically watching your opponents play poker. Today, players can obtain player specific information on a very small subset of players by watching poker on TV (although this information will only be useful in the small chance you will face these opponents in the future). For brick and mortar poker, the only real way to collect opponent specific information is to spend time playing against a wide range of opponents (although floormen and friendly regulars can point you in the right direction).
Thanks to recent developments in the world of online poker, players can obtain a huge amount of player specific data about their virtual opponents without even observing a poker game. Thanks to the online poker hand history and data collection tools like Poker Tracker, poker players can collect extensive data on their opponents just by clicking their mouse button. A diligent data collector can "observe" (virtually) the details of the way every single hand was played on an online poker site (shameless plug: check out my Poker Tracker Guide to find out how to do this).
Since relatively few players are using these opponent specific data collection tools, there exists a huge informational advantage for the players that do. If I know the tendencies of every player at the table and my opponents do not, it creates a huge information asymmetry that gives me a significant edge over these opponents.
***

There are many types of information in poker, but the three categories above provide a framework for thinking about where a poker player's edge comes from. The above discussion illustrates why professional poker players come from such a diverse background: since all poker players have the same amount of information available to them, every one has an equal chance of becoming an expert in poker. Those who have the biggest expectation are those who collect the most information and figure out how best to use that information to make decisions.
In other words, poker is a game that heavily rewards those who put effort into the collection and analysis of information. Just think of it this way: every poker book you read, every hand you observe, and every time you use Poker Tracker, you are increasing your edge over your opponents.

With all this great blogging going on, who needs Sklansky? My blog seems pedestrian by these standards, so I give you two of the greats, Iggy, and HDub. Read them and learn kids!

The Biggest Loser(s), Online Poker Edition

2005-08-15T23:39:00.000-04:00

It's time for our regular analysis of the hands that lose me the most money. I came up with ten hands using the following criteria:

VP$IP > 50.00%
BB/Hand < 0

This highlights hands that are inducing you to put money into the pot, yet that are costing you bets in the long run. Each has its own reasons for being so damn costly, but this should be a therapeutic discussion of what costs you most. I encourage you to examine your PT database to do the same.

1) A3s (VP$IP: 95.45%, -1.25 BB/Hand) and 2) A4s (VP$IP: 90.00%, -0.75 BB/Hand): These hands are a train-wreck waiting to happen. I wrote previously about the dangers of AK. Why is it so hard to chase with these hands? Maybe it's the NL roots, where implied odds are more of a factor, or maybe it's just stupidity. I only went to showdown 18.18% and 28.57% of the time with these hands, respectively, and to make those stats worse, I only won at showdown with them 25 and 37.5% of the time respectively, but to really make it bad, I called 2 bets cold a total of 9 times in 52 times dealt pre-flop.

Why do these suck so bad? Easy. Ace-little suited is a hand where you're hoping for a flush. You're going to flop a flush less than one percent of the time (0.9%). You'll flop a 4-flush 4.7% of the time. Flopping a nut flush forces you to check. Any lead bet will likely force everyone out and win you the small pot there. Flopping an ace gives you top-pair, weak kicker, and flopping a 4-flush almost forces you to chase.

These hands have -EV written all over them. From Pokerroom.com :

Cards	SB	BB	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	D
A4s	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	0.04	0.06	0.05	0.19	0.03	0.18	0.08
A3s	-0.12	0.02	-0.06	0.07	0.10	-0.08	-0.08	0.12	0.01	0.04

Funny thing is that these hands have much more value in NL, just because of the implied odds they provide. If a player "just barely" gives you proper odds to chase a flush in NL, you can have a pretty large pot by the river. If that river card gives you the flush, even if no more money goes into the pot, you're going to win a very large pot. In limit, without a boatload of players coming along with you, it could be that these hands just can't generate the pot sizes needed to create large pots are large implied odds situations. The other way these hands can win is with "bookend" hands (pairing your ace on the flop and your kicker later). Both these situations can give you large pots. The problem is not being able to lay down the hands without having the odds to make calls.

Your odds to hit from a flush draw on the flop are 1.9-to-1 (or approximately 2-to-1). This makes almost any call +EV on the flop. The odds to hit a flush draw from the turn are 4.1-to-1. You'll need a fairly large pot to make the turn call, and this is likely where you lose the most bets. If the pot is small, there is no point in continuing on the turn. If you have the flush draw plus the top pair looking for the bookend, this adds 3 outs to your options, so long as you believe that your two pair will be good. This option would yield an almost even money call on the flop (1.2-to-1), and a 2.8-to-1 call on the turn (to hit either the flush or two pair). Not bad. Your worry, however, is that if you hit another ace on the flop, someone else who has you outkicked may have already hit their bookend hand, and you're drawing virtually dead to either just your flush or runner-runner. Either way you look at it, you have to look at these hands as hands where you can actually make an intended hand and still lose. You're playing for the nut flush and falling back on the bookend. It's as much a drawing hand as you can handle.

3) QQ (VP$IP: 100%, PFR 90.63%, WtSD 65.52%, W$SD 21.05%, -0.68 BB/Hand): This is just a function of rough luck, and not laying down a hand when you're in trouble. In LHE, with so many chasers playing any king or ace, either one of those cards coming on the board can mean that you're already beaten. As you can tell, this is an automatic raise and re-raise, pretty much regardless of position. Funny part is that overall the hand is a winning hand for me, but in a BB/hand examination, it turns out to be a losing hand (likely from the prevalence of the above mentioned chasers at the lower-limits, and the opposite propensity of higher (3/6) limit players to fold A and K-rag to raises pre-flop, therefore eliminating showdowns and large pots).

4) TT (VP$IP: 97.73%, PFR 63.64%, WtSD 57.14%, W$SD 41.67%, -0.56 BB/Hand): See above. The vulnerability of hands like JJ-99 have been written about since the dawn of time. If you raise pre-flop, get called, and an overcard comes to your tens on the flop, more than likely, short of hitting a set, you're likely screwed. TT is a solid starting hand--just be prepared to lay it down--no whimpers, okay?

5) K9s (VP$IP 52.63%, PFR 5.26%. WtSD 9.09%, W$SD 100%, -0.39 BB?Hand): This is a hand I used to play as a youngin' limit player. I've since sworn it off, except for an occasional attempt to steal the blinds from the button. You know my VP$IP used to be near 25%? Christ, I might as well have been pissing bets up the pole. Funny part is that I have the discipline to let it go, but why limp with it to begin with? It's a worthless hand, and it's EV is derived from hitting a king-high flush. which as we all know, may not even be good. Bad idea, kids. Real bad idea. Now I know that some smartass will be posting a comment about the merits of suited 3-gappers, and that's great. Leave that shit to the pros. I'll be happy with my lovely little 18% VP$IP, thank you very much. NL Tourney, you ask? Different ballgame.

6) 88 (VP$IP: 87.23%, PFR 25.53%, -0.36 BB/Hand and 8) 66 (VP$IP: 90.00%, PFR 7.50%, -0.23BB/Hand): Ah--my friends the middle pairs. You suck. In today's world of no-foldem-holdem, it is possible for these hands to win unimproved. For the most part, however, they are great set-it-or-forget-it propositions, like their smaller pair bretheren. 88 is generally +EV from any position, but part of that EV lies in your ability to lay it down if you know you're beat. 66 is considered +EV from LP, but without hitting a set, I'm really leery about taking this non-powerhouse to showdown.

7) ATo (VP$IP: 85.94%. PFR 25.00%, WtSD: 52.73%, W$SD: 31.03%, -0.24 BB/Hand) and 10) AJo (VP$IP: 95.45%, PFR: 81.82%, -0.19BB/Hand): Rough hand. You should not be calling a raise with this, just for the sake of its easy domination. It's not suited, so your best shot at a winning hand is to pair your ace or ten and hope it ends up being TPTK. You also have a shot at a Broadway straight, but that requires a lot of help. Odd thing is that ATs wins almost 1 BB/Hand for me. What does that imply for you? Suited, goot. Offsuit, no goot.

9) KQo (VP$IP: 85.19%, PFR: 11.11%, -0.22 BB/Hand): What the hell is so damn nice about an offsuit connector? An ace--you're beat. What does that mean? On 24% of flops, you're already drawing to a hand where you need at least two cards to win. Needing runner-runner ANYTHING is just really bad. Not really bad, but dog-shit bad. And so -EV. It is admittedly tough to get away from. Limp with it? If you must, but only in LP and only when a gaggle of people are limping with you. NEVER cold call a raise with this junk, and only call a raise after you in LP if the other donkeys do first. You need a big pot to make this worth it, and don't be afraid to dump it DESPITE the large pot.

I've pretty much officially (re)-moved back to 3/6 online after dropping down to accomodate the smaller bankroll. I've evened out at a win rate about 3.3 BB/100 overall, and that makes me happy. The move back to 3/6 is something that I really look forward fo, since at 2/4, there really isn't a whole lot of challenge. Variance is there, but I think I'm a solid example of how a solid player will overcome that variance over time. It's frustrating when some fish takes a $50 pot from you in 2/4 because he hit his 3-outer on the river that he called 3 raises to get to, but in the long run, with patience and good play, you'll still be way ahead. My last 2/4 session cost me an $80 buy-in, mainly because it was just one of those sessions: When I got dealt QQ, somebody else was dealt KK. I had AJ, they had AQ. It happens. I've been such a consistent winner at that level that it didn't really affect the win rate very much, if at all. It just didn't seem to be a challenge any more. I had a similar feeling at 0.50/1 and 1/2 before. I think part of it is that when you move down to lower limits after playing such relatively higher limits, making decisions doesn't make you uncomfortable. Josh Arieh said it best in a journal entry a few months back. He was golfing with Michael Jordan (!?!?) and they decided to make a little friendly wager on their match. Josh, known as not only a great poker player, but as a pure gambler, asked Jordan how much they should play for per hole. Jordan is reportedly a pretty good low-handicap golfer, and Arieh can reportedly hold his own. Jordan's response: "Whatever makes you uncomfortable." 2/4 doesn't make me uncomfortable anymore. I had touched on this in my last post, and expressed my desire to play 6/12 or higher at the Taj or the Trop the next time I go. I know I make the right decisions. When it's a dollar, or even four dollars to call a bet, it just isn't uncomfortable--it becomes just fun. 2/4 feels like I'm playing nickel/dime at the kitchen table with my 11-month old goddaughter. That's not to say that I won't play 2/4 anymore. Whether as a change of pace, or just to keep positive flow coming, 2/4 is still fun to me. It just doesn't make me think deeper to make a decision. It may sound arrogant, but even if I screw up, I know that I'm a good enough player at that limit to make it up quickly. 3/6, and the next step on Stars, 5/10, which I am still a virgin at, will force me to make better decisions. It will serve to jumpstart additional learning, and the development of more skill. Then, watch out world.

You know, I really wish somebody would invite me to a friggin' home game in my area. Domenic, bud, feed me!

Married Life

Anyhoo, married life is nice, thanks for asking, and truthfully, it's not different from "single life." I've been with my wife now for more than 12 years. We dated for a little less than 9 years then moved in together 3+ years ago, and we've been a true team ever since. People always tell me that it's "different" when you get married. I say, "How?" We've had all our finances held jointly since before we moved in together. We still have our own accounts, which will not change. We both contribute to the house, and none of it changes. The only real difference is that now I get to call her my wife, and I get to correct her when she calls me her boyfriend, and that I get to wear a ring around (a very nice ring, I might add). You know, I never had any doubts about the missus, but I'll tell you--as long as neither of you change YOURSELVES after you say your "I do's," your relationship won't change either. We're now a little more open to having a baby, which would likely be the biggest change for both of us, but the key is remembering what made you fall in love with the other person. Take some time every day, no matter how busy you are, no matter how crappy she may look first-thing in the morning, and think about one little thing that you absolutely adore about her--her little curls, her pretty brown eyes, the little dimple you see when she smiles at you--something that reminds you of why you got together with/married this woman in the first place. You'll do much better that way. Also remember that you're a team. You may do more one day, she may do more another day. No matter what, as long as you are both driving toward the same goal, you'll get there, and you'll be happy getting there. Always be honest with her too, and never spend bill money on poker. It's just totally -EV...

Little Maintenance Update

2005-08-12T08:54:00.000-04:00

I've been getting spam comments lately (as you can tell from the prior entries), so I'm disabling anonymous commenting on the blog. I hate to do that, since many readers don't have Blogger accounts, but the spam is really annoying. Until I figure out a way to filter out crappy investment tips from real commentors, anonymous comments will be disabled.

Welcome Back to Me and A Great Lesson from Phil Gordon

2005-08-12T00:02:00.000-04:00

The wedding and honeymoon were fantastic, and now I return to the grind of full-time work and part-time poker. Yummy.

On ESPN.com, Phil Gordon wrote a great article about the four levels of poker thought. Great stuff...

Many years ago I used to watch broadcast coverage of the WSOP - the only televised poker tournament at the time. This was before hole-card cameras, back when a typical review of a poker broadcast included the words "cattle grazing." But I loved it; I loved trying to get inside the mind of the poker professionals at the table.
I wanted to know how the pros knew their opponent would fold to a re-raise, how they knew their Ace-high was best. I wondered why some players looked so uncomfortable - Did they have the nuts? Were they bluffing? Did they have irritable bowel syndrome?
Now, with hole-card cameras, the game of wondering what players are thinking is even more fun. Who doesn't want to know how Phil Ivey got his opponent to lay down the winning hand? You've just got to wonder, how many levels deep does this guy think?
Like all pros, Ivey was once a beginning player and so that's where our journey inside the mind of poker players will begin.
First, the setup:
The tournament is No Limit Texas Holdem. All players have $10,000 in chips. The blinds are $50 and $100. It's a full nine-player table, and the guy we're playing along with is first to act before the flop. "We" pick up AsQs and raises to $300. Two players fold and an aggressive player in middle position calls the raise. The remaining players fold.
The pot is $750.
The flop comes: Qc 8c 2h

Inside the Mind of a Beginning Player

Beginning players typically think one level deep:
Level 1: "What hand do I have?"
Let's listen in on the thought process of a beginning player before the flop:
"Okay good, I have an Ace and a Queen and they're suited! I love being suited! I'm going to raise because my hand is strong."
And, here are the thoughts after the flop:
"Fantastic! I flopped top pair, top kicker. I have a great hand so I'm going to bet."
The beginning player bets $300.
The opponent raises all-in and now the beginning player must call $9400.
"I have a strong hand!" he thinks, "You picked the wrong time bluff me buster!"
The beginning player calls.

Inside the Mind of an Intermediate Player

Intermediate players typically think two levels deep:
Level 1: "What hand do I have?"
Level 2: "What hand does my opponent have?"
Let's listen in on the action after an opponent's smooth call or the raise before the flop:
"Normally this aggressive player would re-raise to get heads-up, but instead he just called. He's probably playing a middle or small pocket pair, a weak ace, or suited connectors."
After the flop:
"I've flopped top pair top kicker, but the flop has a flush and straight draw. I'm going to bet to protect my hand."
The intermediate player bets $750, enough to give the draws bad odds.
The opponent raises all-in, a raise of $8950.
"What hand could my opponent have? If he's willing to move all-in, he must have an over-pair, a set, or a gut-shot straight flush draw with the Tc-9c or Jc-Tc. Against the likely hands, I'm a slight favorite when he has the straight flush draw and a huge, overwhelming underdog against the other hands. I guess I've got to fold."

Inside the Mind of an Advanced Player

Advanced players think three levels deep:
Level 1: "What hand do I have?"
Level 2: "What hand does my opponent have?"
Level 3: "What hand does my opponent think I have?"
This time we'll listen in from after the opponent's all-in raise.
"My opponent probably thinks I have top pair because I bet to protect my hand. Because he's probably thinking this, is it possible that he's trying to push me out of the pot? Then again, what if he made his set? Or what if he has an over-pair? If I call and lose, I'm eliminated from the tournament. If I lay down my hand, I'll still have $8950 left -- more than enough chips to some play solid poker. I'm going to fold."

Inside the Mind of an Expert Player

Expert players think four of more levels deep:
Level 1: "What hand do I have?"
Level 2: "What hand does my opponent have?"
Level 3: "What hand does my opponent think I have?"
Level 4: "What does my opponent think that I think they have?"
We'll listen in again from after the opponent's all-in raise:
"My opponent probably thinks that I think he has a pocket pair or suited connectors because he just smooth called my pre-flop raise. Since he knows I'm capable of laying down top pair, he decided to move all-in. Can he beat my top pair, top kicker? If so, would he bet $8950 into a $1500 pot? I don't think so. I suspect he over-bet the pot because he doesn't want to be called. I think he's on a move with the Ace high flush draw. I'm going to call."

Take it to the Next Level

You can improve your play immensely by taking your thought processes to the next level. If you're a beginning player, do your best to consider the likely hands your opponent will hold. If you're an intermediate player, consider what your opponent thinks that you hold. If you're an advanced player, give more consideration to what your opponent thinks that you think they have. If you're an expert player, get your butt out to the tables.
In my new DVD, "Expert Insight's Final Table Poker" you get to see my hole-cards and then listen in on my thought process as I play through twenty-four hands at the final table of a high stakes tournament. Depending on the situation, you'll hear me thinking on different levels. Against the Internet rookie Butch Dude, I'm thinking two levels deep. Against the 2001 WSOP Champion Chris Ferguson, I'm thinking four levels deep. Throughout play, you hear every thought I have while making winning decisions in No Limit Hold'em. It is a great teaching method experiential rather than professorial.
Will watching my DVD make you a WSOP championship like Chris? Well, I can't promise this. But I can promise that the lessons in this DVD will substantially improve your poker game. I can also promise that when you see Rachael Huntley of "Mr. and Mrs. Smith" fame playing the role of Harmony Jensen, you won't be thinking of cattle grazing.

What level do you think at??

You know, I've been doing a bunch of thinking about poker since I've been home, after thinking about NOTHING poker-related for the duration of my honeymoon except why the airport in Maui still had the pre-WSOP Collectors' Edition of Card Player Magazine on display at the end of July. It's weird--my wife doesn't really bother me about playing poker online. She knows that I've made my money from my initial deposits, and to her, though she was sketchy about playing for real money online, she's come to accept it, if not in some way embrace the idea. But at the same time, I'm playing 2/4 and 3/6 online (currently all 2/4 since the withdrawal), and I don't really have a desire to play higher, and definitely not until my online roll goes back up enough to support it. I don't even play with the 200-300 BB that are recommended for a level. I play to my comfort level. I play 2/4. I take $100 to a table and play. The rule is simple. Win a buy-in, leave. Lose half-a-buy-in, leave. Simple. I play no more than 2 tables at a time (probably a good thing because I would take this WAY too seriously otherwise, and it would then cease to be fun), and I enjoy myself. I'm right now at about 175 BB in the Stars account. That should tell you not only what my current online BR is, but also how I feel about it. I will dabble in 3/6 when my mind chooses to as well. But I digress--I've gotten off the point.

When I go to the casino, I've been ~~playing~~ crushing 2/4. Obscenely unsustainable win-rates (double-digit BB/hour consistently), but the competition isn't any. In another article on ESPN by Peter Newmann, he talks about the players at a B&M 2/4 game as:

These players have seen poker on television, but don't understand the game. And because of that, there is less strategy. There is less skill. There are fewer decisions. A $2/$4 limit hold'em game is like an alternate universe. If no-limit hold'em is the Bellagio, then $2/$4 is the casino in "National Lampoon's Vegas Vacation," featuring games like Guess the Number, War and Rock, Paper, Scissors. It's a joke.

I alternately laugh and get pissed off at that. Number one, I'm one of those players. Few who play against me in either a tourney or a live game, no matter how small the stakes, would agree with that characterization. Secondly, just because he doesn't understand the finer points of roshambo doesn't give him a right to bash it. He continues...

Because it's only a $2 bet, players will call with virtually anything, trying to catch something on a cheap flop. Any knucklehead who finds a couple of bucks between the seat cushions of his couch can play.

You see, I make a very nice living. My job pays me into six figures annually (and who knew a pharmacist made THAT much money). However, I'm not the kind of gambler like my partner at work, who would save up money for two months, take $2k to a casino, and just go down and ~~play~~ piss away money at 10/20 just for shits and giggles. I love poker. I also love my toys. I spend money on toys. If I took 2k to a casino for something other than a WSOP event, my wife would stuff me into a GA meeting quicker than you can blink. I choose to go to a casino with a couple hundred dollars and have fun.

However....

He's also right. Many of these players suck. They're horrendous. What the hell is the challenge of playing solid poker against guys just there to gamble? You'll beat them mercilessly, they'll suck out on you or hit a miracle flop, and you'll shuffle money across the table all night long. For a quasi-serious player like myself (as serious as I allow it to become), that sucks. Hell, I could give chips to a bunch of my non-playing friends and just take them from them all weekend long, but what does it do for me? I've dabbled in live 4/8 before, but I might even be selling myself short there. I could buy in for 3 racks and sit 6/12, and probably make just as much money because you can't look me in the face and tell me that the difference between B&M 2/4 and 6/12 is much more than the size of the fishies' checkbooks. Granted, as you move up levels, you will likely find more players like you, sharky-types who like to take from the fish and keep it for yourself. I accept that. But at least there would be a challenge! It's not just the money that keeps me playing poker--it's the intellectual stimulation too. At the expense of sounding like a Sklansky-clone (which, for his coming off as boorish, isn't really a bad thing) I like to THINK the game while I play it. I LIKE the challenge of playing a solid player. I'm a competitive person by nature. You can play wiffle-ball with 9-year-olds and have fun, but if you have a competitive fire burning, you still want to play against people that can play against you and give you a battle. You see, for someone who lives literally 40 minutes from the casinos in Atlantic City, I don't get down there very much. I get to AC about 6 times or so yearly, so the majority of my action is gotten online.

The point of this rambling discussion is that I have an itch. I just don't think that live 2/4 is the brush to scratch it anymore.

Rough Go

2005-07-16T08:28:00.000-04:00

Lately, it's been a real grind at the tables. Every time I fire it up and play, losing seems to follow. It seems like every time I've played in the last week or so, somebody's either had a higher pocket pair than me, or drew out a straight or a flush. I also think that with the wedding so close, my mind isn't really on the task at hand, and as a consequence, my bankroll has taken a major hit. I'm at my lowest point in a long time. In the last 3+ weeks, I've lost about 35% of my remaining roll (after withdrawing money to pay for the missus' gift). Bad beats, draw outs, or even just being outplayed have led to poker just not being fun.

It's kind of a blessing in disguise that I'll be otherwise occupied for a while. It might be time for a fresh perspective. To make it worse, I'm finding myself playing scared. That's a bad place to be.

Bachelor Party Trip Report

2005-07-11T21:28:00.000-04:00

WARNING: This is REAL THIN on poker content. In fact, this is probably the last mention of poker in this entire entry. If that pisses you off, makes you upset, offends you, or anything else--sorry. This blog entry is dedicated to following the travels of five guys on a weekend of debauchery, drinking, angry dolphins, and shitty eggs. Also be warned, I was going to change names to protect the guilty, but you know, it wasn't as funny that way, so screw them all.

First, an introduction. Obviously from the title, it was all about a bachelor party. My bachelor party. Yes, ladies, the PokerShark will be off the market in less than two weeks. I know you're all crushed, so I'll let you all live vicariously through those that crossed our paths on this incredible weekend. First, you have me, the Shark. A reputation as large as my ego, I'm not a fan of strip clubs (at all...hee hee), and I drink when I want to, and then, usually excessively. Then comes the best man, a mountain of a guy named Steve, who just happens to be Mrs. PokerShark's brother, and therefore, my brother-in-law (in 12 days). Stevie goes about 6-foot-3, and weighs about three bills. Stevie can also drink with the best of them. Jonesy is one of my ushers--another huge guy (6'0, 285) who has 3 loves in his life--his girlfriend, his adorable baby, and Yuengling lager. The fourth (and decidedly the smallest and most tiltable) member of the motley crew is Dom. Dom is quite the little LAGgy card shark himself, tiltable easily by the author, his girlfriend, and angry dolphins. Lastly, and absolutely not least, was Pops. Pops is, as the name implies, Steve's grandfather. Best part of that is that he might just have been the nuttiest one of this whole bowl of granola--and that says something.

Limo Bus or Tart Cart?

Steve had told everyone that he had rented a limo-bus for the evening's festivities. Our girls, of course, not knowing the cool nature of the Aces, instantly conjured up images of the kids riding the short bus, lifts, and those styrofoam helmets they had to wear before they left the house. The taunting didn't stop until they left for their own bachelorette party about 2pm on Saturday. Little did they know... Steve-O (no relation to the Jackass jackass, though I think he would eat a goldfish for a dollar) swings by with Jonesy about 2:30pm, saving me from an afternoon of solitude and tilt playing on Stars. We took in some of the ball game, then began our travels in earnest with a trip to Ruby Tuesday's. Steve ordered this bangin'-ass White Chicken Chili, which assured that sometime during our travels, we would be replenishing the natural gas supply of the United States East Coast. But I digress. Jonesy goes for the colassal one-pound aptly named Colassal Burger. Steve-O and myself had the half-pound Bison burgers, and the waiter almost collapsed and died bringing the slabs of meat to the table. When he returned to refill our drinks and noticed that all three of us had cleaned our plates, he was completely tilted, and forgot to charge us for the appetizers.

So back to my house we went. Steve left to get changed for the night's festivities, and Jonesy ("Shit--my shirt has a stain. Could you wash it for me, dude?) decides that my living room should double for a changing room. Cool--I head upstairs to get changed, and wait for the limo-bus and the other clowns. About 8:30ish Steve and Pops come funneling through the door with Dom following close behind. We start off with Vodka shots, beer, more beer, and watch in delight as the limo bus pulls up. Seats 20--on-board cooler, flat screen TV/DVD. Suitable for any party...then out pops Eric. "E" basically told us that anyplace we wanted to go was cool with him. About 9 we all piled on the bus, and since half-pound and full-pound burgers couldn't possibly fill us up, we had to get food. Where else but....

Hooters!!!

It's a misrepresentation. Around the country, walking into Hooters is the next best thing to walking into a strip club. Model-quality girls in skimpy-ass tops, skimpier-ass-showing shorts, and willing to shake each and every part for your viewing pleasure. It's like Thee Dollhouse, only you can bring your kids there. So, after some more beer and RBV (Red Bull & Vodka) 's, into Hooters we go. Up here, Hooters girls are pretty much whoever will wear the shorts. Not bad, but certainly not the quality at other establishments around this great nation (so I've heard). Wings, pitchers, a song, and an autographed dress (no, they wouldn't let me take it off one of them) later, our waitress (clearly the hottest girl in the building--Dom's on tilt already) brings over the autographed dress and insists I put it on. Of course it fits over me like a wife-beater. Of course one of the waitresses signs it, "You can cum in my Hooters any time." And of course, she has to come to the table and let me know it was her who signed it that way. 20 years old, and you kiss your dad with that mouth? Wanna come for a bus ride? We get turned down by all the Hooters girls on our offer to enjoy the night with us (probably because they all had curfews), and decide that we've had enough, and off to the strip clubs we go.

Wheredyawannago?

We get back on the bus, and ask E where the good strip clubs are. He mentions the "Erotic Cafe," a little hole in the wall about a sneeze from the bridge into Northeast Philly. I stand up, clearly enibriated and still clearly on tilt from the 20-year old's invitation, and say the line of the night...

"No matter what...What happens on this bus and on this night stays on this bus! It stays here! From floor (pointing to ceiling) to ceiling (pointing to floor)!"

Can anyone say, "tilt?"

The Erotic Cafe

BYOB is good, mmm'kay? This place rocked for a hole in the wall. We had quite a bit of attention from the girls, seeing that I was the bachelor and all, so when asked by my amigos who I wanted my (first) couch dance from, I wasn't sure. Then, a girl came on stage, apparently just after starting her shift, and I noticed immediately that she was different. Not the silicone-inflated ditz that we're all used to ogling over and staring at, no. A dancer's body. Muscular, yet hot at the same time...then she decides to wiggle her way over to my side of the stage, looked right at me, and dropped down into a complete split. Good baby Jebus. As soon as she was done on stage, I knew that she was the one I wanted to spend a little time with, and I was firmly on stripper-tilt. This chick rocked my world in the back. Fifteen-plus minute couch dance. That's all I can say. A few more (okay, 3) couch dances later, and after Dom got a taste of the action, then bought Pops a couch dance from this Amazon-blonde 6-foot-tall girl, we decide--okay, Dom decides that he knows the owner of this joint in Philly, Show and Tel (1 L intentionally). Let's go, damnit! We're all in. So here I stroll out, looking desperately for Ivy (Hit me baby one more time!), then giving up and piling into the bus on our way to Philadelphia!

Of course, NOBODY knows that Ivy (who came to be known as "Splits") gave me her schedule as well (every other Thursday, every Friday and Saturday). Well, I guess EVERYBODY knows now. And before you all go jumping to conclusions, nothing happened back there that was that out of line. We'll just say it was pleasant back there for all involved...(and I know Domenic's going to tilt just reading that)

Show and Tel

Philly strip clubs are regarded as much better off than their suburban counterparts. E (who was fast becoming E-Dawg for his incredible and uncanny ability to find the fastest way between two strip clubs) drops us off outside, despite our attempts to buy him a couch dance. Not my loss! In we go, just in time to see the Hot Seat in use. This girl (a butterface--everything on her was hot butt-er-face) is up there literally beating the shit out of this dude with a belt, then climbing up on him and damn near biting off his nipples. Not my thing at all. The guys got me a dance from this girl--funny part is the girls at the first place were of a significantly higher quality that at the Philly club. It showed too. Then, they grab this uber-tall girl and tell her that I've never gotten any "brown sugar." This girl proceeds to take me in back and literally do things to me that could get you arrested in a few states. Acrobatic little minx. We decided that it was time to leave there (about 2 AM), and we nearly went back to the Erotic Cafe, but fears of it being closed sent us to Cheerleaders.

Closed? Closed? What Strip Club Closes at...uh, 2:30 AM??

This sucked. Last resort. We weren't ready to end the night (even though we only had E-Dawg until 3), so we went to the straight-up skankiest strip club on the Eastern Seaboard--the Fantasy Showbar. All my Jersey and Philly readers know this place all too well. Hey, it's open till 5, and what the hell?

In we go. Dom and I spot this girl who from a distance and in the dark looks very nice, not to mention EXTREMELY nice for Fantasy. We call her over just as she gets called to the stage. We wait her out, a little bummed, because by this point, E-Dawg is squarely in OT. Jonesy decides to take one for the team and go up to the stage and "encourage" (that's what they call it these days) her to swing back. She leans over to him, he reflexes back, tosses the money at her and squeaks back to us, "Her face looks like she got hit with a bag of what the fuck!!!" Luckily for us, she didn't hear him, but we damn near threw up from laughing so hard. On cue, this little blonde named Victoria takes me back for a couch dance. I had thrown a prop bet to Domenic that I would last more than 3 minutes back there (dances were $20 for 3 minutes--what a rip). He of course, knowing the charms of the Shark, pussied out. About 15 minutes later, I emerge from the couch dance area, just in time to see him come out as well. Only thing was, he had to wait a few minutes for a girl AFTER I was already in. By this point, it's closing in on 4 AM so we decide to head back home before they send a search party out for E and the bus.

Who's Hungry??

Nothing like meatball parm at 4AM. We head to Wawa (for non-locals, a convenience store like 7/11) and grub up on some food. Back to the casa where the drinking continues. We all crash about 5:30AM. RBV's, beer, shots, and everything else these guys poured down my gullet had the room spinning like a Tilt-a-Whirl, but sleep was well needed and well-deserved!

The Day After

Just because the night was over didn't mean the party was!!! Wake up time was somewhere around 11 AM. I was moderately hung over, so I ignored Steve's pleas to make pancakes. He went immediately on breakfast-tilt. We decided it would be cool to drive over to the IHOP (which, incidentally, was about 2 blocks from the Fantasy Showbar--I swear I saw Victoria in there...). We plopped our collective ass down at 1:00, and proceeded to wait. And wait, and wait. And wait. 40 minutes later, we still didn't have our breakfast. We got restless and began to entertain ourselves, with stories of angry dolphins (when you have your lady from behind, you go to wander to the other hole, and she responds by shaking her head, going "eeh-eeh, eeh-eeh, eeh-eeh" like a pissed-off dolphin), Cleveland Steamers (don't ask), dutch ovens (If you love me, honey, you won't hold your breath), and hot boxes (which we all had an intimate knowledge of because Steve's white chicken chili from yesterday had taken full hold of his bowels). All you could hear from the side of the restaurant was the din of Waterboy quotes...

"Water sucks--it really, really sucks." "Gaaaay-tor-aaaaaade."

Then came Caddyshack: "I want you to kill all the (golfers) gophers on the course..." "...Correct me if I'm wrong Sandy, but if I kill all the golfers they'll lock me up and throw away the key"

Almost an hour later, Jonesy gets pissed. He's demanding his food, and he's not the kind of guy you want to piss off. Magically, our food appears. Except for one problem. The pancakes, as could be expected from the International House of Pancakes, were good. Everything else sucked donkey balls. They gave us half off our bill (would have been $65 for 5 people--without tip. For breakfast. Holy. Shit.) and we leave the ISHOP (International Shitty House of Pancakes) and head back home. On the way home, the girls call us--apparently they survived too--and ask us what happened, yadda yadda. We answer with "floor to ceiling." They, of course, went on an immediate perma-tilt, not having a clue of what the hell we're talking about. We get invited over to the Maid of Honor's (Steve's girlfriend) house/pool to continue the party. We drank and partied until 9 or so, then drove off into the sunset.

Summary

A hell of a night/day/night. Many thanks to the guys, especially Steve, who made it all possible. Of course, you can't leave out the other guys: Jonesy, Dom, and Pops. Mucho gracias, amigos!! It was an awesome night, from floor to ceiling, that none of us will soon forget, regardless of how bad the eggs are, how shitty the service, or how hot the box gets. Because of you guys, I learned stripper tilt is good, the Shark still hates strip clubs (hee hee), Gatorade > H₂O, and that RBV's hit you like a dump truck, but only 3 hours later. I also learned that angry dolphins are not to be taken lightly, and that limo buses rock, especially when your driver knows where every "fuckin' strip club in the area is." I also learned that despite the fact that strippers are decidedly -EV, and that most of them are probably crazy as hell, on some nights, with the right girl (Splits, anyone?) that strippers > poker, even if you can't win back your buy-in.

He Had Outs, but...

2005-07-08T16:15:00.000-04:00

It still pisses me off...

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Th, Ts.

2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO (Drawing Fool) 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 9h, 4c, Tc (3 players)

UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, Drawing Fool raises, UTG+2 folds, Hero 3-bets, Drawing Fool calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 8s (2 players)

Hero bets, Drawing Fool calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 7c (2 players)

Hero bets, Drawing Fool raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

Results in white below:

Hero has Th Ts (three of a kind, tens).

Drawing Fool has Jh Jc (straight, jack high).

Outcome: Drawing Fool wins 14.25 BB.

Some analysis:

I was behind pre-flop to his fish-hooks. He was an 83-17 (worse than 4-to-1) underdog after the flop. The turn made him worse than 3-to-1. He just kept calling, and I had him on a big pair, I even thought about jacks as I made the crying call. He was 41% VP$IP, 20% PFR, 1.97 PFA, 45% WtSD over 116 hands. Schmuck. I (heart) runner-runner straights to 4-to-1 underdogs with 6 outs even on the river. Let's just say he's been tagged.

Just Chatting...and Limit Auto Rate Rules for PT!

2005-07-08T13:54:00.000-04:00

Sorry I've been away for so long. This whole wedding thing has been taking a huge toll on my free time, and it isn't going to get any easier with work until the big day. I hope to be able to play a little bit between now and then, but it isn't looking real great to be honest.

Question of the day: Why is it that I sit at a table, play well, win a good deal, then lose a good chunk of it back? I bought in to a 3/6 table with $150, ran it to $287, then dropped it back to $163! Is it that I see the stack size and get greedy? Or more likely that I just suck??

Limit Auto-Rate Rules

After a bunch of testing over at Bet-the-Pot, what is in my opinion the best poker forum on the internet, we have the auto-rate rules finished. You can download mine here. The explanation/justification is over in the Limit forum at Bet-the-Pot, rather than post it all here. They work out very well, and yield a really good distribution of players, and most of all, it flags not only the solid players you should avoid, but also the players that are just so bad, you have an obligation to take all their money. Thanks again to excession and the guys over at BTP for their input and for the base NL rules!!

Trop Trip Report

Domenic and myself went with the significant others to Trop last weekend for some comedy and poker fun. After a refreshing "dinner" at Hooters, after which we roshambo'ed for the check (I won...), and a funny-as-hell comedy show, we plopped down at the 2/4 (only had $120 or so to gambool with--wedding stuff) and proceeded to have a blast. Well, I did. Domenic had KK cracked TWICE, once by 73o IIRC, and again by another trash hand. This one guy there was a waste of chips. He decides he's tired around 2 AM (what is he, some sort of wuss? some sort of girl??) and begins raising in the dark on every street. What a douchebag. He actually won a hand this way, but overall, lasted about 15 minutes before he busted.

Great Advice of the Day: Always listen to your dealer. I sat first, and was in the 10 seat, with the button at the 8 seat. I considered waiting for the BB, but the dealer (who introduced himself as I sat--"Hey, I'm...) Hoopes (yes, his real name), tells me I should post, saying "Always listen to your dealer." I consider it, and say what the hell--the quicker I post, the more I play before the girls come and get us. I post, and look down at 64o. I want to smack the daylights out of Hoopes until he dealt a flop of 2-3-5 rainbow. I end up taking a $50-something pot, and, tossing him a $5 chip I advise the table, "Always listen to your dealer." Thanks again, Hoopes.

It was a rough night for Domenic, and it never hurts that he got sat to my immediate left. Of course, I raise him out of a few pots. Of course, he gets pissed and looks into a seating change. You know, the only thing worse than having an uber-aggressive player to your right is having two to your right. I felt sorry for the poor bastard on the dealer's right (in the 1s), and I felt really sorry for the guy on Domenic's left. He went into rock mode and played like 3 hands in an hour. I think he went back to his room and cried all night. So, about 3 AM, the girls decide it's time to go (what are they, wusses? eh...girls?), and I of course just posted my BB. After pleading, I end up playing one last orbit, not winning a damn thing, or even playing a hand, and we end up taking the not-so-long trip up the AC Expressway. After dropping Domenic and his girl off, we truck back to our house, and I climb in bed sometime around 4:30 AM (what am I, some kind of wuss? a girl?). I finished up $30-something dollars, and overall was happy with the night.

Saturday night is my bachelor party. There will be no poker played (what are they wusses?? girls?), but I'm sure fun will be had by most, and if somebody doesn't have fun, they're obviously a wuss or a girl.... :-)

Enjoy the weekend all.

Confusion on the Stop-n-Go

2005-07-01T11:59:00.000-04:00

Thanks to Dugglebogey, there is a major difference between limit and no-limit and the way you go into certain plays. I consider a stop-n-go to be when you check a monster on the flop to induce a bet, then check/raise or bet out on the following street when a card that has nothing to do with your hand hits the board.

An example in limit is checking a hidden flopped straight:

You're dealt JTs and limp with 4-5 others.
Flop comes 8-9-Q rainbow. You check. Hopefully, someone will have flopped a pair of queens, or a set and bet out. Next street, say a 4 drops. You either bet out or check/raise. It may not be a stop-n-go, maybe a better term is slow-n-go. I totally agree with DuggleBogey's comment on the last entry that cold-calling a raise from the blind in NL then going all-in on the flop is probably a better example of a stop-n-go, and is one hell of a confusing play.

But I like doing the delayed check/raise in limit too!

Speaking of limit, I'm putting the finishing touches on my limit auto-rate rules, again based partially on the work of excession over at Bet The Pot. They're currently still in beta-test mode, but they're listed in the filename as final, because until I get to accumulate more user's data, I can't do much more than I already have.

Get your limit autorate rules here, and any feedback would be appreciated. There are 5 priority classes, created by excession, that I have adapted to my rules, and they really highlight certain player types.

The Showdown Muppet is a player who will see hands to showdown no matter what the price. They will play to the river with 3rd pair, or with top pair on a board with a 4-flush they have no part of. Truly a crappy player.

The Calling Station is what we all think. Non-tight, call-call-call.

Bad Weak Tight was more my creation with some inspiration. These are players, like showdown muppets, who will play afraid until they hit a card they think wins them the hand--unfortunately, they may raise on the river with second pair and still lose. Also really bad.

Ultra Aggressors are what you think they are. Trouble.

Also, I have an Extra Loose category (VP$IP > 50%). Also lousy.

Again, thanks to excession for blazing the trail and doing most of the work for these.

Happy 4th all!

The Stop-n-Go

2005-07-01T08:58:00.000-04:00

As somebody who plays primarily limit cash games, I'm going to share a play that screws people's minds up. This play will be contradictory to a lot of what is taught to limit players. You see, in limit, it is more difficult to make up missed bets on later streets, so this play can be risky in the sense that you may not make as much in terms of bets in the pot, or that you may allow an opponent to draw to a better hand. Caveat emptor:

Here's the situation. You're dealt 77 in MP, and limp in. 5 people see the flop, and it comes down A-7-2 rainbow. You've flopped middle set. An EP player checks to you--what do you do?

Many limit players will wisely bet out here. Sometimes, I will too. What does that do? It immediately represents either a strong ace, or a set. There are no real straight draws or flush draws, so you've limited yourself down to a few possibilities. If a player doesn't have second pair with a strong kicker or an ace (or two pair), they will likely fold. This is not good for building a pot. You almost definitely have the best hand here, behind only AA. I say you check. One of the 3 limpers ahead of you bets, and it is called around by 4 of the limpers, losing one, and including yourself.

The pot on the turn is 5 BB, and the turn is a T. Yahtzee. Realize that another hand has been added that can beat you (TT), including if the T matches any suits on the board. I wouldn't worry too much about it. The EP limper checks again, then you should check. An LP player bets, you raise and/or re-raise. At this point, you've played this hand very weakly. You've raised on the turn after a second-best card just hit. Other players are thinking:

"What the hell does he have? Does he have TT? AA? Did he just hit his second pair?"

At the point when you raise, with the other calling stations doing what they do best, there are 10 BB in the pot. You very likely have the best hand, and have almost definitely bought yourself a free river card, and the other players, at least one of whom has at least top pair, and another of whom may have two pair, can't lay down their hands, and they are drawing to very few outs (at max only the A's and T's remaining). They almost have to call. The EP player, if he's still around and doesn't make a monster, will check to you, you can fire another BB into the pot, and watch your opponents either fold or make the crying call.

This strategy works far better when the pot is limited to 2 or 3 players, but the fun when you check/call then check/raise somebody is awesome. It also works incredibly well when the turn card is lower than your set.

FYI, I'm working over at Bet-the-Pot.com on some limit auto-rate rules. I'm tweaking the rules set by the PokerTracker Guide guys and others (especially a guy over at BTP called excession--he has a fantastic set of NL auto-rate rules over here). There's some great analysis over there, mine included :-)

Join the forum, comment at will, and of course, comment here! Or, download the rules as they are right now so you can try them out. Get the text file here!

Enjoy the holiday weekend, folks!

Not Another Bad Beat Story

2005-06-23T16:04:00.000-04:00

But this may be one of the WORST pre-flop calls in history:

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9d, 9s.

UTG raises, 2 folds, MP2 3-bets, MP3 caps, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 4h, 6s, 8d (4 players)

BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, MP3 3-bets, BB folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (11.75 BB) 7d (3 players)

UTG bets, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, UTG 3-bets, MP2 calls.

River: (17.75 BB) 2h (2 players)

UTG bets, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 19.75 BB

Results in white below:

UTG has 7s 5s (straight, eight high).

MP2 has Ks Kd (one pair, kings).

Outcome: UTG wins 19.75 BB.

You know, I'm wondering if I have the temperment for this game. If this guy does this to me live, I might just get up and knock his teeth out. What an idiot. And of course, he hits the flop.

Ok, We Have To Settle a Few Things

2005-06-23T09:03:00.000-04:00

The "Donkey" post from a couple days ago...

First of all, "donkey" is my new favorite word. I'm a donkey, you're a donkey, wouldn't you like to be a donkey too?

Second--What makes the post ironic is that I wrote a post a few weeks back called The Dangers of AK. It's actually a fantastic read. I recommend it strongly.

Unfortunately, I didn't take my own damn advice.

Third--My point, despite actually a great comment from an anonymous user last night, is that the first hand, a classic case of AKo losing to 65o (?), was a crappy play. By both of us. The BB didn't come along for the ride, so he was calling 1.5 SB to win a total of 3.5 SB, which gives him 2.3-to-1 odds pre-flop. Where does he stand?

He was a 62-38 underdog pre-flop (better than I had thought), so the call theoretically was good. I made my mistake playing past the flop. After the flop, I was almost a 3-to-1 underdog. So why did I play it? Because in my mind, people don't call raises from out-of-position with 65o. From this point, I overplayed my hand. Why? If I recall, this guy was raising with junk, and playing things to the river that he had no shot on. I had played 18 hands with him. He had showed hands like J6s (calling a raise with it), and playing it clear to the river with a Q-A-J-A-Q board). I knew that despite what he showed, that he may have missed everything too. I use this other hand as an example:

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9h, 9c.

3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO = Villain calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 8d, 4h, 7s (2 players)

Hero bets, Villain calls.

At this point, I have an overpair. He doesn't know what overpair, but he knows I have one. He can't lay down his TPTK.
Turn: (3.66 BB) Qc (2 players)

Hero bets, Villain raises, Hero calls.

This is where he wants to seperate. He's representing AQ, KQ, or QQ here. I don't believe him, but it's an effective tool, and it slows me down.
River: (7.66 BB) 3h (2 players)

Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero calls.

At this point, either I have him beat, or it's a crying call. I figure that I'm getting enough here (8.66-to-1) to make the call, even though I may be beaten. I do know, that unless he has a bigger pair than me (TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, or the above AQ, KQ, QQ, or even QJ, I'm safe.
Final Pot: 9.66 BB

Results below:

Hero has 9h 9c (one pair, nines).

Villain has 8h Ah (one pair, eights).

Outcome: Hero wins 9.66 BB.

A turn check raise can be a bluff to slow down an aggressive player. It's usually used by a player who has position.

But I digress.

I overplayed the hand, actually both of them. I was on a bit of tilt after it, and that probably explained the A9o out of position. I've run into players lately playing junk out of position for raises and hitting. Any two suited and drawing to runner-runner flushes, things like that. So when I see somebody playing 65o, they piss me off. But I know that they are the reasons I make the money I do. The beats will even out. As much as I hate to say it, the <*)))>< are vital to poker.

Great analysis and discussion, anonymous. Feel free to stop by more often.

Boy, Do I Have a Donkey for YOU!

2005-06-21T17:36:00.000-04:00

I got stuck playing 2/4 this afternoon for seventy dollars (which is my limit, BTW), mainly because of one donkey:

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with As, Kh.

4 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB =Donkey calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) 5d, 7d, 7c (2 players)

Donkey bets, Hero raises, Donkey 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 5c (2 players)

Donkey checks, Hero bets, Donkey raises, Hero calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 3s (2 players)

Donkey bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

Results in white below:

Donkey has 6c 5h (full house, fives full of sevens).

Hero has As Kh (two pair, sevens and fives).

Outcome: Donkey wins 11.50 BB.

This jackass played 65o for a raise from the SB.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9h, Ac. CO =#A500AF(Donkey)/ posts a blind of $2.

1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO = Donkey checks, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 9s, 5h, Jh (5 players)

BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, Donkey raises, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 4h (3 players)

Hero bets, MP3 folds, Donkey calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 4s (2 players)

Hero bets, Donkey calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

Results in white below:

Hero has 9h Ac (two pair, nines and fours).

Donkey has 5s Js (two pair, jacks and fives).

Outcome: Donkey wins 9.75 BB.

My problem here isn't the play. He was in the BB, after all, and my hand wasn't very strong. It was the muppet-donkey-fu**ker-jackass way he just called, even with an obvious flush on board. As I'm sure you all know, I have a reputation for being a major TAG. He couldn't have the least amount of knowledge of me as a player. Not even possible.

Or this gem, by a player we'll call Donkey #2:

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Qd, Ac.

2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB = Donkey #2 calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 5d, Th, 9h (2 players)

Donkey #2 checks, Hero bets, Donkey #2 calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 4s (2 players)

Donkey #2 checks, Hero bets, Donkey #2 calls.

River: (5.25 BB) Td (2 players)

Donkey #2 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

Results in white below:

Donkey #2 has 9d Qs (two pair, tens and nines).

Hero has Qd Ac (one pair, tens).

Outcome: Donkey #2 wins 5.25 BB.

I should have value bet the river, but he'd have likely called it anyway. He called a raise with Q9o!

I hate donkeys.

Not Running Cold Any More

2005-06-20T16:52:00.000-04:00

I've done very well at the Stars 1/2 and 2/4 games as of late, and I have the online bankroll at what is by FAR its highest. Good stuff, and a move-up in limits is definitely in order in the short term.

WARNING--Extreme Sappiness Ahead

Now for something far more important. In 33 days, the PokerShark will be getting married (and I'll be able to call her Mrs. PokerShark for real). If anybody tells you that planning a wedding is the greatest thing you'll ever do, take it from me. They lie. For me, I just want it to be here already. People have asked me if I'm getting nervous. Absolutely not. I've been dating the beautiful and talented Mrs. PokerShark for 11+ years now. In fact, our 12th anniversary will be our wedding day (and yes, it was planned that way). I've lived with her for more than 3 years now. If I'm nervous and I haven't spoken up yet, then, damn, I better just hold my own damn peace.

It's stressful at times, and poker has become my release. It's very stressful, and VERY worth it. I'm going to get the chance to stand up in front of both our families and all our friends and shout at the top of my lungs (well, maybe not THAT loud) that I love my fiancee. We can celebrate our love and begin a new chapter of life together.

And we get to go to Hawaii on our honeymoon, which despite all the stress and expense of a wedding, makes it all worth it. We're both somewhat stressed out about it, but come July 23, none of it matters. All that matters is us. And I like that.