Getting My Money's Worth from Poker Tracker
I was inspired by a post by Betting For Value talking about problem hands, so I decided to data mine and see which hands cost me the most money when I play them (VP$IP>50). I don't want hands that I'm in the blinds or just unlucky with, I want hands that I overplay and lose:
1) K9s (VP$IP 75.00, -2.63 BB/hand):
Wow, what a leak. Dealt it 8 times, in the blinds once, and I even cold called a pre-flop raise with it. What the hell was I thinking?
2) 88 (VP$IP: 100.00, -1.50 BB/hand).
I did tend to fall in love with small pairs before. Now, I'll play them, see if they hit trips, and toss them away if they don't.
3) T9s (VP$IP: 50.00, -1.36 BB/hand):
I've always been skeptical of playing suited connectors, mainly because first, with low suited connectors, if you hit a flush, you could easily be beaten by a bigger flush. Same for a straight. I'm not a fan of suited connectors, but I've obviously been playing the high ones, and losing. Looking at the hand histories, I've been chasing with them and tossing them away mostly. Poor play.
4) A6s (VP$IP: 91.67, -0.95 BB/hand):
Another known leak in my game, probably has to do with my missing flushes so damn much. I love A-rag suited. My problem is that I fall head over heels for it, and don't get away from it when I don't hit it. Did you know that Ace-rag that flops a 3-flush is a 4-to-1 underdog against even a small pair, and that three-way it is even dominated vs. 77 and KQo, almost 2-to-1 against winning? It's all about live cards. Without the big card behind the ace, any pocket pair over that kicker/rag has you dominated with 3 outs or needing a runner-runner? Bad odds, folks. Real bad odds.
5) JJ (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.90 BB/hand):
Glancing through hand histories, what I learned is that this hand is a loser for two reasons. Either it's dominated from the start (JJ v. QQ or KK or AA), or somebody draws out on me despite a raise. I've raised with this 90% of the time (18 of 20 times) its been dealt to me. I was called and beaten by 86s, AQo, QQ, A5o, QQ, K9s, ATs, Q2s, 87o, A7o, and AA. Maybe 5 of those hands had no business even seeing the flop. Three had me dominated, ATs and AQo are races. Just a bad hand, I suppose, until I see:
6) TT (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.89 BB/hand):
Same idea, I suppose. Raises on 14 of 18 hands (77.78%). I ran into AA, 86o, JJ, AJo, AQo, T9o, JJ, J2s, and A7s. Mostly I just ran into bigger hands. TT is a hand that should be raised pre-flop. If it's already been raised to you, you may play it like a small pair (look for trips then get out), or re-raise from LP with caution. It can be easily dominated, so be careful.
7) AJs (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.80 BB/hand):
19 pre-flop raises in 20 occurrences, and overall, I win with it more than I lose (11 win, 9 lose). The losses are big, though. Lost with it to AQo, JJ, KTo, Q2s, and 55 (with trips on the turn that made his full house). It seemed like people would respect the raise more often, the raise serving as a blind-stealer 6 times. The thing to remember with AJs is that it is just a drawing hand, and seldom wins unimproved. It's real tempting to play this back at the fish, but it should be played cheaply if possible until you nail something, or if you feel a bet will drive the opponent out of the pot.
8) ATs (VP$IP: 83.33, -0.55 BB/hand):
See #7 above. Lost to 33, 65o, 66, A5o, AQo, 66, KK, and J5o, Either it's dominated from the get-go, or it's drawn out on. Notice the three small pairs--it just goes to show you that even AKs vs. small pair is a pure coin flip, and the small pair can easily be favored over a drawing hand like Big Slick or Ace-Big suited.
9) A2s (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.54 BB/hand):
What the hell am I playing? O8B? I called a raise with this? I actually raised with it once? From the SB? Sheesh. Another Ace-rag suited example. I need to get away from these hands It's amazing, though. In every hand I lost with, I never had more than a 3-flush off the flop. Ace-rag, as all of you know, is easily dominated by a hand with a bigger kicker, and it's raison d'etre is the flush. No flush, get out. Even if you pair your ace, proceed with caution.
10) 77 (VP$IP: 81.48, 0.53 BB/hand):
It's that smaller pair thing. Mostly losing to bigger pairs. The thing I noticed though is that I seem to be more willing to throw this away when it doesn't hit. See the flop cheap, play it fast if it hits, throw it away if it doesn't.
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The next biggies that cost me money are ATo (VP$IP: 77.78, -0.50 BB/hand), A4s, A9o, KJo, 22, 55, and QTs. These are all trouble hands, whether small pairs, offsuit paint, or marginal hands like QTs and Ace-rag.
Not surprisingly, my biggest winners are AA, KK, A8s, AKs, QJs, 99, JTs, and KQs.
Wait, isn't that A8s? Consider this. In the above example, we played first against 77, then against 77 and KQo. You go from a 4-to-1 underdog to only a 2.5-to-1 dog, with two live cards. Three-way, you go from a monster dog to being only a 1.62-to-1 dog to win. In the above example, you have 3 outs and runner-runner (about 1.5 outs per Abdul) for about 4.5 outs. With A8s, you have 6 outs plus runner-runner, and no turn card other than an unsuited 7 and maybe a K or a Q leaves you truly dominated or drawing dead. A suited K or Q leaves you 12 outs, and only an offsuit 7 leaves you drawing dead.
It's interesting to see exactly why money leaks from my game, and I hope this type of analysis helps you as well.
1) K9s (VP$IP 75.00, -2.63 BB/hand):
Wow, what a leak. Dealt it 8 times, in the blinds once, and I even cold called a pre-flop raise with it. What the hell was I thinking?
2) 88 (VP$IP: 100.00, -1.50 BB/hand).
I did tend to fall in love with small pairs before. Now, I'll play them, see if they hit trips, and toss them away if they don't.
3) T9s (VP$IP: 50.00, -1.36 BB/hand):
I've always been skeptical of playing suited connectors, mainly because first, with low suited connectors, if you hit a flush, you could easily be beaten by a bigger flush. Same for a straight. I'm not a fan of suited connectors, but I've obviously been playing the high ones, and losing. Looking at the hand histories, I've been chasing with them and tossing them away mostly. Poor play.
4) A6s (VP$IP: 91.67, -0.95 BB/hand):
Another known leak in my game, probably has to do with my missing flushes so damn much. I love A-rag suited. My problem is that I fall head over heels for it, and don't get away from it when I don't hit it. Did you know that Ace-rag that flops a 3-flush is a 4-to-1 underdog against even a small pair, and that three-way it is even dominated vs. 77 and KQo, almost 2-to-1 against winning? It's all about live cards. Without the big card behind the ace, any pocket pair over that kicker/rag has you dominated with 3 outs or needing a runner-runner? Bad odds, folks. Real bad odds.
5) JJ (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.90 BB/hand):
Glancing through hand histories, what I learned is that this hand is a loser for two reasons. Either it's dominated from the start (JJ v. QQ or KK or AA), or somebody draws out on me despite a raise. I've raised with this 90% of the time (18 of 20 times) its been dealt to me. I was called and beaten by 86s, AQo, QQ, A5o, QQ, K9s, ATs, Q2s, 87o, A7o, and AA. Maybe 5 of those hands had no business even seeing the flop. Three had me dominated, ATs and AQo are races. Just a bad hand, I suppose, until I see:
6) TT (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.89 BB/hand):
Same idea, I suppose. Raises on 14 of 18 hands (77.78%). I ran into AA, 86o, JJ, AJo, AQo, T9o, JJ, J2s, and A7s. Mostly I just ran into bigger hands. TT is a hand that should be raised pre-flop. If it's already been raised to you, you may play it like a small pair (look for trips then get out), or re-raise from LP with caution. It can be easily dominated, so be careful.
7) AJs (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.80 BB/hand):
19 pre-flop raises in 20 occurrences, and overall, I win with it more than I lose (11 win, 9 lose). The losses are big, though. Lost with it to AQo, JJ, KTo, Q2s, and 55 (with trips on the turn that made his full house). It seemed like people would respect the raise more often, the raise serving as a blind-stealer 6 times. The thing to remember with AJs is that it is just a drawing hand, and seldom wins unimproved. It's real tempting to play this back at the fish, but it should be played cheaply if possible until you nail something, or if you feel a bet will drive the opponent out of the pot.
8) ATs (VP$IP: 83.33, -0.55 BB/hand):
See #7 above. Lost to 33, 65o, 66, A5o, AQo, 66, KK, and J5o, Either it's dominated from the get-go, or it's drawn out on. Notice the three small pairs--it just goes to show you that even AKs vs. small pair is a pure coin flip, and the small pair can easily be favored over a drawing hand like Big Slick or Ace-Big suited.
9) A2s (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.54 BB/hand):
What the hell am I playing? O8B? I called a raise with this? I actually raised with it once? From the SB? Sheesh. Another Ace-rag suited example. I need to get away from these hands It's amazing, though. In every hand I lost with, I never had more than a 3-flush off the flop. Ace-rag, as all of you know, is easily dominated by a hand with a bigger kicker, and it's raison d'etre is the flush. No flush, get out. Even if you pair your ace, proceed with caution.
10) 77 (VP$IP: 81.48, 0.53 BB/hand):
It's that smaller pair thing. Mostly losing to bigger pairs. The thing I noticed though is that I seem to be more willing to throw this away when it doesn't hit. See the flop cheap, play it fast if it hits, throw it away if it doesn't.
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The next biggies that cost me money are ATo (VP$IP: 77.78, -0.50 BB/hand), A4s, A9o, KJo, 22, 55, and QTs. These are all trouble hands, whether small pairs, offsuit paint, or marginal hands like QTs and Ace-rag.
Not surprisingly, my biggest winners are AA, KK, A8s, AKs, QJs, 99, JTs, and KQs.
Wait, isn't that A8s? Consider this. In the above example, we played first against 77, then against 77 and KQo. You go from a 4-to-1 underdog to only a 2.5-to-1 dog, with two live cards. Three-way, you go from a monster dog to being only a 1.62-to-1 dog to win. In the above example, you have 3 outs and runner-runner (about 1.5 outs per Abdul) for about 4.5 outs. With A8s, you have 6 outs plus runner-runner, and no turn card other than an unsuited 7 and maybe a K or a Q leaves you truly dominated or drawing dead. A suited K or Q leaves you 12 outs, and only an offsuit 7 leaves you drawing dead.
It's interesting to see exactly why money leaks from my game, and I hope this type of analysis helps you as well.
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