My (First) Chance at Glory--and Chasing Flushes

Played in a FPP Freeroll to win a seat at the main event tonight. Third hand in, dealt QQ in late position. A guy later revealed to be a stooge goes all-in on a 2h-7d-4h flop. I toss it, another guy calls and takes down the pot with a rivered pair of nines. The turn card? Of course, a queen. Could have tripled up, but lost the chance. Played overall pretty well into and beyond the first break, mostly picking off small pots before those blessed Hilton Sisters came back to bring me a big 'un. I flopped trips this time, and took down a T3500 pot vs. KQo. That put me into the top 40 right before the break and got me really thinking. Little did I know that I would steal blinds twice after that, but I wouldn't win another pot. About an hour and a half in, with 75/150 blinds, I find myself with A8s vs. TT. No help and IGHN in 98th place.

Chasing Flushes

Funny thing is that I flopped a flush tonight in a side game at a $25NL table. Other than that, I seem to have a major allergy to flushes. I've been playing with Tracker for a while now, and in 3,752 hands, here is my final hand summary (at showdown):

High Card: 38
One Pair: 136
Two Pair: 109
Three of a Kind: 37
Straight: 25
Flush: 20
Full House: 30

Is that an anomaly? I've probably flopped 4-flushes more than any player in recent memory. If my math serves me right, I should make my flush about 1 in 3 times (34.97%) by the river when flopping a 4-flush. This is probably the biggest leak in my game. I will chase 4-flushes (mostly with odds ) down to the river and toss the hand away. In tourneys, in ring games, I can't seem to get away from flush draws. You can also be sure that I generally don't (I know--giving stuff away here...) draw to a flush with less than a queen-high in my hand, unless of course, it's real cheap. Best part is that of my 20 flushes, 8 came with 4 on the board. So to summarize, I've had suited cards 868 times. I've drawn 12 flushes out of those. That is 1 in 72 or 1.38%. With offsuit cards, I've drawn 8 flushes in 2,669 hands (1 in 333 or 0.3%). My knowledge tells me that suited cards in the hand will yield a flush by the river 6.4% and unsuited cards 1.8% of the time. So....

	Suited	Unsuited
Expected	6.4%	1.8%
Reality	1.38%	0.3%

I'm not on the "Poker Is Rigged" bandwagon, but isn't that odd. The sample size is somewhat small (3,752 hands), but isn't it odd anyhow? This is the leak in my game currently. How far do you chase flushes? I know my odds. I'm 5-to-1 to make the flush on the turn, and better than 3-to-1 to make it by the river. If you're in a multi-way pot with a hand like AJs with a flush draw on the flop, how the hell do you get away from it?

Case in point:

Your hand: As-Js
Flop: 9s-Kd-2s

At this point, you're a 58-41 favorite to win the hand. You're 19% to make your flush on the next card. You're 35% to make it by the river. You make it, you win. Period.

Turn: 4h

Your 58-41 favorite has now become a 51.5-47.5 dog. You're 19.57% to make your flush by the river. You're a slight dog overall, and anybody wih a K, 9, 7, or 4 has you beat right now, not withstanding pocket pairs. And I understand bricking up sometimes. You won't make your flush all the time. But, sometimes? A little?

More Stats

Of my 20 flushes, as mentioned above, 8 were made with 4 on the board (from an unsuited hand).
I flopped 2 flushes--both nut flushes, and both winners.
I turned 8--winning 5 and losing 3 (one a K-high to an A-high, one a Q-high to a K-high, and one a J-high to an A-high).
The other ten were rivered, winning 9 and losing 1 (to a full house made on the river from my flush card). See, I do chase a lot. Do you also see why? However, it doesn't offset the hemhorrage of chips from me when I don't hit the damn thing.

Any suggestions are as always, welcome...