Some Analysis and Number Crunching
The more I look at last night's hand of carnage the more amazed I really am. It may be the only time when AA is a true underdog to win the hand pre-flop:
Hero: As Ac---2.04% Win, 22.33% Lose, 75.63% Tie----EV=0.398
CO: Ad Ah---2.04% Win, 22.33% Lose, 75.63% Tie----EV=0.398
MP: Kc Kd--20.29% Win, 79.29% Lose, 0.42% Tie----EV=0.204
Amazing. Considering I just spent time complaining about not hitting flush draws, hitting runner-runner-runner-runner clubs to make the only hand I could win with is just absolutely amazing. Lucky and amazing.
My read was that MP had KK. The re-raise screamed of KK, and he's a fairly solid player from his past stats, so I had him on KK. The CO player I didn't really know, and when he re-re-raised all-in, I figured he was trying to knock me off a hand like AK or AQ, or suited paint. I had him on a high pair, but not AA, especially since I had AA already. I insta-called, figuring I had him dominated, and when the MP player didn't re-up that, I knew my read was right. Three clubs on the flop, and when he bet out, I knew he had the Kc. I honestly started to salivate, because I knew I had him beat unless he hit another K, or (God forbid), he went nuts with KQs and already hit the flush. It was only a small amount to call his all-in, $3.60, relative to a $51 pot, so it was easy.
In retrospect,
Board: 9c 6c 7c
Hero: As Ac---33.89% Win, 7.42% Lose, 58.69% Tie----EV=0.629
CO: Ad Ah---0% Win, 41.31% Lose, 58.69% Tie----EV=0.290
MP: Kc Kd---7.42% Win, 90.37% Lose, 2.21% Tie----EV=0.082
--from twodimes.net
Amazing that post-flop (not that he could know it), a player with AA is drawing dead to win the whole pot. The best he could hope for is that the flush draw doesn't improve and a split pot...
Turn card Jc completes my nut flush. All I could think of was that somebody is just celebrating at his computer because he raised all-in with Tc 8c to make his straight flush...Tell me that's not paranoid. The crowd is drawing (unbeknownst to me, though I for all seriousness figured I had won the hand) dead, and the turn card 9s was immaterial. When the board paired, my mind races to, "What if he has 99?? What about 66? 77? JJ?" Just my luck, right?
When the cards were revealed and I realized it was AA v. AA v. KK, I stopped and had to catch my breath. An amazing hand that I was purely lucky to win.
An' if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
--The Clash
After some crunching, I found out the following:
When you flop a flush draw, you have a 19.15% chance to make your flush by the turn, 34.97% to make it by the river. This translates into 4.22-to-1 odds to make your flush on the turn, and 1.86-to-1 to make it by the river. In no-limit hold'em, of course, implied odds are hard to accurately determine because the betting is unlimited and uncapped. There are also other major factors determining the suitability of a call. What is the high card in your hand? On the board? Are you drawing to the nuts? Is there a pair on board that could easily lead to a full house? Do you have additional outs?
Let's start:
What is the high card in your hand? Kings and Aces, obviously, are best. Anything lower, and you had better have a damn good read to think you aren't beaten by a better flush. A Jack-high flush when another player has the nut flush can be an awfully expensive hand.
What is the high card on the board? If you're holding a Queen, and the King and/or Ace is already on the board, obviously you're in good shape. Beware of gaps, and make sure that again, if you're drawing to a flush, you make damn sure that you'll have the best flush out there. All a second-best hand is good for is to bleed your bankroll.
Are you drawing to the nuts? Is there a pair on board that could easily lead to a full house? Take this example. You have AKs, flop is 9-7-9, two of your suit. You're well set, but 25.9% of hands out there have you beat right now. It ties in to the next question--do you have additional outs? In that situation, even if you do make the flush, you may already be drawing dead, or need runner-runner to spare your chips. Now if you change that hand to having QJs, with a 7-5-7 board, you are facing an underdog situation. 52.54% of possible hands have you beat. Your read will of course narrow down your opponent's holdings, but regardless, you're drawing to a Queen-high flush and are a dog. This should all enter in to your calculations and thoughts on whether to bet, call, or fold.
Do you have additional outs? Top pair, even middle pair, a straight draw, all of these can make a flush draw hand more valuable. You are much less likely to lay down a drawing hand with top pair, and even if you don't hit your draw, you may win unimproved:
You hold: AQs
Flop: Q-9-4 (9 and 4 are your suit). You are a HUGE favorite to win here. Top pair with very best kicker, and if another suited card comes, you are holding a monster. The numbers vs. other starting hands are 96.02% win, 0.56 % tie, 3.42% lose.
Change the flop....you now flop middle pair.
You hold A9s
Flop: Q-9-4 (Q and 4 are your suit). Your percentages only drop to 84.09 to win, 15.36 % to lose. Few hands have you dominated, maybe QQ or 44, and you're in a definitely good position.
What about low pair?
You hold A4s
Flop: Q-9-4 (Q and 9 are your suit). You are still 71.05% to win, 28.4% to lose. QQ and 99 have you dominated, but it's still worth calling. Keep in mind that you're 4.22-to-1 to make your flush with the next card. With 5 or more players, it's a must-call. Even heads up, with no pocket pair indication, it's a must-call. Keep checking your odds.
Gutshot Straight Draw?
You hold AJs
Flop: 9-8-Q (9 and 8 are your suit). More of a coin flip, but even though you're only drawing, you're still a 57-43 favorite here.
Open End Straight Draw?
You hold KQs
Flop: J-T-4 (J and 4 are your suit). You're a slight dog (54-46 underdog) here for the first time, believe it or not. You have however 9 outs for the flush, 6 outs for the straight (not double counting the suited A or 9), and 15 outs is a great way to crash and burn. Watch out for the Ace-high flush draw, however.
The numbers to keep in mind are 4.22-to-1. They are your odds of making your flush on the turn from a flopped 4-flush. Examine your pot odds, and your other outs, and make your decision on that information:
If I overused anyone's hard work in compiling this info, let me know by commenting, I'll be happy to credit you!
Hero: As Ac---2.04% Win, 22.33% Lose, 75.63% Tie----EV=0.398
CO: Ad Ah---2.04% Win, 22.33% Lose, 75.63% Tie----EV=0.398
MP: Kc Kd--20.29% Win, 79.29% Lose, 0.42% Tie----EV=0.204
Amazing. Considering I just spent time complaining about not hitting flush draws, hitting runner-runner-runner-runner clubs to make the only hand I could win with is just absolutely amazing. Lucky and amazing.
My read was that MP had KK. The re-raise screamed of KK, and he's a fairly solid player from his past stats, so I had him on KK. The CO player I didn't really know, and when he re-re-raised all-in, I figured he was trying to knock me off a hand like AK or AQ, or suited paint. I had him on a high pair, but not AA, especially since I had AA already. I insta-called, figuring I had him dominated, and when the MP player didn't re-up that, I knew my read was right. Three clubs on the flop, and when he bet out, I knew he had the Kc. I honestly started to salivate, because I knew I had him beat unless he hit another K, or (God forbid), he went nuts with KQs and already hit the flush. It was only a small amount to call his all-in, $3.60, relative to a $51 pot, so it was easy.
In retrospect,
Board: 9c 6c 7c
Hero: As Ac---33.89% Win, 7.42% Lose, 58.69% Tie----EV=0.629
CO: Ad Ah---0% Win, 41.31% Lose, 58.69% Tie----EV=0.290
MP: Kc Kd---7.42% Win, 90.37% Lose, 2.21% Tie----EV=0.082
--from twodimes.net
Amazing that post-flop (not that he could know it), a player with AA is drawing dead to win the whole pot. The best he could hope for is that the flush draw doesn't improve and a split pot...
Turn card Jc completes my nut flush. All I could think of was that somebody is just celebrating at his computer because he raised all-in with Tc 8c to make his straight flush...Tell me that's not paranoid. The crowd is drawing (unbeknownst to me, though I for all seriousness figured I had won the hand) dead, and the turn card 9s was immaterial. When the board paired, my mind races to, "What if he has 99?? What about 66? 77? JJ?" Just my luck, right?
When the cards were revealed and I realized it was AA v. AA v. KK, I stopped and had to catch my breath. An amazing hand that I was purely lucky to win.
More Analysis on Flushes
An' if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
--The Clash
After some crunching, I found out the following:
When you flop a flush draw, you have a 19.15% chance to make your flush by the turn, 34.97% to make it by the river. This translates into 4.22-to-1 odds to make your flush on the turn, and 1.86-to-1 to make it by the river. In no-limit hold'em, of course, implied odds are hard to accurately determine because the betting is unlimited and uncapped. There are also other major factors determining the suitability of a call. What is the high card in your hand? On the board? Are you drawing to the nuts? Is there a pair on board that could easily lead to a full house? Do you have additional outs?
Let's start:
What is the high card in your hand? Kings and Aces, obviously, are best. Anything lower, and you had better have a damn good read to think you aren't beaten by a better flush. A Jack-high flush when another player has the nut flush can be an awfully expensive hand.
What is the high card on the board? If you're holding a Queen, and the King and/or Ace is already on the board, obviously you're in good shape. Beware of gaps, and make sure that again, if you're drawing to a flush, you make damn sure that you'll have the best flush out there. All a second-best hand is good for is to bleed your bankroll.
Are you drawing to the nuts? Is there a pair on board that could easily lead to a full house? Take this example. You have AKs, flop is 9-7-9, two of your suit. You're well set, but 25.9% of hands out there have you beat right now. It ties in to the next question--do you have additional outs? In that situation, even if you do make the flush, you may already be drawing dead, or need runner-runner to spare your chips. Now if you change that hand to having QJs, with a 7-5-7 board, you are facing an underdog situation. 52.54% of possible hands have you beat. Your read will of course narrow down your opponent's holdings, but regardless, you're drawing to a Queen-high flush and are a dog. This should all enter in to your calculations and thoughts on whether to bet, call, or fold.
Do you have additional outs? Top pair, even middle pair, a straight draw, all of these can make a flush draw hand more valuable. You are much less likely to lay down a drawing hand with top pair, and even if you don't hit your draw, you may win unimproved:
You hold: AQs
Flop: Q-9-4 (9 and 4 are your suit). You are a HUGE favorite to win here. Top pair with very best kicker, and if another suited card comes, you are holding a monster. The numbers vs. other starting hands are 96.02% win, 0.56 % tie, 3.42% lose.
Change the flop....you now flop middle pair.
You hold A9s
Flop: Q-9-4 (Q and 4 are your suit). Your percentages only drop to 84.09 to win, 15.36 % to lose. Few hands have you dominated, maybe QQ or 44, and you're in a definitely good position.
What about low pair?
You hold A4s
Flop: Q-9-4 (Q and 9 are your suit). You are still 71.05% to win, 28.4% to lose. QQ and 99 have you dominated, but it's still worth calling. Keep in mind that you're 4.22-to-1 to make your flush with the next card. With 5 or more players, it's a must-call. Even heads up, with no pocket pair indication, it's a must-call. Keep checking your odds.
Gutshot Straight Draw?
You hold AJs
Flop: 9-8-Q (9 and 8 are your suit). More of a coin flip, but even though you're only drawing, you're still a 57-43 favorite here.
Open End Straight Draw?
You hold KQs
Flop: J-T-4 (J and 4 are your suit). You're a slight dog (54-46 underdog) here for the first time, believe it or not. You have however 9 outs for the flush, 6 outs for the straight (not double counting the suited A or 9), and 15 outs is a great way to crash and burn. Watch out for the Ace-high flush draw, however.
The numbers to keep in mind are 4.22-to-1. They are your odds of making your flush on the turn from a flopped 4-flush. Examine your pot odds, and your other outs, and make your decision on that information:
The Great Flush Draw Odds Chart
You Have | Draw to... | Outs | Odds |
| Flush Draw | Flush | 9 | 4.22-to-1 |
| Flush Draw + OE Straight Draw | Flush/Straight | 15 | 2.13-to-1 |
| Flush Draw + OE Straight Draw+ 2 Overcards | Flush/Straight/Top Pair | 21 | 1.24-to-1 |
| Flush Draw + OE Straight Draw+ 1 Overcard | Flush/Straight/Top Pair | 18 | 1.61-to-1 |
| Flush Draw + GS Straight Draw | Flush/Straight | 12 | 2.92-to-1 |
| Flush Draw + GS Straight Draw + 2 Overcards | Flush/Straight/Top Pair | 18 | 1.61-to-1 |
| Flush Draw + GS Straight Draw + 1 Overcard | Flush/Straight/Top Pair | 15 | 2.13-to-1 |
| Flush Draw + 2 Overcards | Flush/Top Pair | 15 | 2.13-to-1 |
| Flush Draw + 1 Overcard | Flush/Top Pair | 12 | 2.92-to-1 |
| Flush Draw + Pair (from hole card) | Flush/Top Pair/Trips | 14 | 2.4-to-1 |
If I overused anyone's hard work in compiling this info, let me know by commenting, I'll be happy to credit you!
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