Plugging Leaks in the NL Game

Every once in a while, I go digging in my PokerTracker database to see what hands are costing me the most money, and it serves as a nice reminder of why exactly I don't do this for a living, since some of the hands I play and lose money with are just flat out stupid.

Here's my criteria for discovering leak hands. This is the results-oriented version of the scan, but it still shows a decent amount of leakage:

1) The hands must have a respective VP$IP of >50%, meaning that I actually PLAY the hand, not just do something stupid from a blind.

2) The hands must be an overall money loser (in terms of BB/hand)

Now, on to the fun (in no particular order):

1) This is, and has been, the biggest leak in my game, both NL, and Limit: Ace-x suited. I know that you rarely make a flush from two suited cards in your hand. So why do I play these cards so damn often? It's not only the small Axs'--it goes as high as AJs and AQs:

AQs: VP$IP: 100%, PFR: 100%, BB/Hand: -0.44
AJs: VP$IP: 100%, PFR: 90%, BB/Hand: -0.35

I wrote an article a while back about AK, which can be found here, and I still haven't fully taken my own advice. Examine these two hands--what can be taken from these? Are they raising hands? Yes, and these are hands that can be raised with almost irregardless of position. They are very strong hands, so why am I losing money with them? Simple. They haven't made a damn thing yet. They are drawing hands. If you don't flop an ace, or your kicker (Q or J) as the high card on the board, you have absolutely nothing. Ace-high. How often does ace-high win a nice sized pot? You got it. Hardly ever. You have the advantage of being suited, but what does that really do for you if you don't flop at least a flush draw?

These are hands that can make money for you, but should be played with caution, since they generally will either win you many small pots, or lose you a few big ones.

The thought process? Raise to 5 BB (2.5 PTBB), miss the flop, lead out with pot-sized continuation bet (5 PTBB), win small pot. Or, get re-raised and dump it. These hands are real nice, but you need to know when to toss them away.

2) Continuing the stupidity:

A9s: 100/70/-1.93
A5s: 82/0/-0.33
A4s: 78/0/-0.17
A3s: 80/0/-1.04
A2s: 70/0/-3.77

A9s is a great way to go broke, since many players will call a raise with AQ, AJ, or AT, and you make yourself quite the wonderful second best hand to lose money on. Again, you end up chasing flushes or chasing the ace to improve your hand.

Hint: If you have A9s, you raise pre-flop, see a Jack-high flop, toss in a continuation bet and get called--you're usually in deep trouble. Don't let the "weak" play fool you. What is Caro's number one primary tell? Weak is strong, strong is weak. Most online players aren't smart enough to reverse-tell you, but they do know how to slowplay and trap an "overly aggressive player" who is tossing chips away on what could be loosely called a semi-bluff.

3) If you're just reading this post, this will surprise you quite a bit:

KK: 100/100/-6.62

This is the single losingest hand in my limited NL database. Why? I've won 10 of the 12 times I was dealt cowboys, but the other two times, within an hour at PokerRoom, I ran KK into AA. Both times the opponent was relatively loose, and I didn't give him credit for AA, even when he re-raised me AGAIN. Both hands went, (opponent) open-raise, (me) re-raise, (opponent) re-re-raise--don't try and steal my raise, bastard. I have COWBOYS!, (me) push. (opponent) insta-call.

One time I actually rivered a set. Shame he flopped his set. The other time, I was just screwed from the beginning, and there is NOTHING worse in the world than flipping over KK and seeing AA across from you, while all your chips are sitting in the middle of the table.

Phil Gordon said (very simply), "The fourth raise means aces." I add to it--except when you make the fourth raise without aces, and the player across from you has them, in which case, the insta-call (whoops) means aces.

4) This is what I call a "borderline hand." On it's own, it sucks, but with the right flop you can win some serious coin, or make another lovely second-best hand. Overall, I win with these hands when I go to the flop--it's just beyond that I get into trouble. The flop continuation bet is okay as a move. Trying it on the turn and river, especially to a calling station, is nothing more than just donking off chips:

KQs: 100/100/-3.51
KJs: 94/42/-0.77
QTs: 82/9/-3.01

The last one is just plain stupid. Trying to steal with garbage and getting caught with your hand in the cookie jar--brilliant. D'oh.

5) What are the most dangerous hands in Texas Hold'em? Simple. The second best hand. Also on the list are those damn middle pairs. Everybody knows that 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, and 77 are all "set-it-or-forget-it" propositions. But what about 88, 99, TT, or JJ? How far will you take ANY of these hands when a Q hits the flop, or any other overcard? If your answer was, "They hit the muck," then go to the head of the class. So why can't I do that?

Lesson learned for me, and I hope for you as well.