Surviving The Downswings
Something I've learned while playing this game is that regardless of how solid a player you are, eventually the deck goes cold. Eventually, you endure downswings. I'm currently in the midst of a >50 BB downswing, which may not seem like much, but at the 5/10 level can be pretty significant.
So how do we survive these swings of variance? First, this is why we build bankrolls. We build a bankroll that is enough to comfortably play at a certain level, and we rarely if ever exceed that comfort area. This is crucial, especially if your bankroll is considered irreplaceable or you have a high "risk of ruin." Risk of ruin is the chance you'll go "poker broke." In fact, there is a formula that we use to calculate what kind of bankroll we need given a certain win rate and a certain standard deviation (obtainable within PokerTracker from the "Sessions info" tab and pushing the "More detail" button). The formula requires a scientific calculator, but here goes:
For me, here are my statistics (post downswing):
So, Bankroll needed = -($141.682/2 * $24.82) * ln (0.01) I used 0.01 because I want to play with a 99% confidence that I will not go broke. $141.68 is my hourly standard deviation, and $24.82 is my hourly win rate at 5/10. I come up with $1862.24 as the bankroll number needed to play 5/10 within the limits of variance I set. I am well within that bankroll number so we're fine there.
Second, we NEVER go up limits to try and recoup our losses. This could be disasterous. A 50 BB downswing at 5/10 is bad enough. One at 10/20 is twice as bad. Plus we tend to want to always push harder. This doesn't get us wins--it gets us heartache and trouble. We make bad plays, out of position and lose more money.
So what does a player do who is playing well but in the middle of a downswing? Go back to basics. It happens to all of us. If you smooth the graph above out, it looks like a perfect sawtooth pattern. I win, then I have a downswing, then I win again. Play solid poker. The cards will come your way again. Don't change your game to compensate for losing. If you've moved up levels like I have, you're obviously good enough to play where you are--you don't win 4+ BB/100 hands over tens of thousands of hands from 0.50/1 to 5/10 as a fluke. Don't force things--only bad things come of it, and you become like the fish, the very people we hope to exploit. That is, you make poor plays--certainly, you may get lucky, but making -EV plays even in the short term can be nothing but -EV in the long term.
Walk away. Take some time to do something else. Clear your mind, especially of those thoughts that say, "Pocket Kings? Oh, crap, watch me lose with these again." Confidence and mindset are a lot of what seperates the fish from the sharks.
All players endure downswings--its how we push and grind through them that shows if we're a good player or a great player.
So how do we survive these swings of variance? First, this is why we build bankrolls. We build a bankroll that is enough to comfortably play at a certain level, and we rarely if ever exceed that comfort area. This is crucial, especially if your bankroll is considered irreplaceable or you have a high "risk of ruin." Risk of ruin is the chance you'll go "poker broke." In fact, there is a formula that we use to calculate what kind of bankroll we need given a certain win rate and a certain standard deviation (obtainable within PokerTracker from the "Sessions info" tab and pushing the "More detail" button). The formula requires a scientific calculator, but here goes:
Bankroll needed = -(Standard deviation2/2 * hourly win rate) * ln (risk of ruin)
For me, here are my statistics (post downswing):
So, Bankroll needed = -($141.682/2 * $24.82) * ln (0.01) I used 0.01 because I want to play with a 99% confidence that I will not go broke. $141.68 is my hourly standard deviation, and $24.82 is my hourly win rate at 5/10. I come up with $1862.24 as the bankroll number needed to play 5/10 within the limits of variance I set. I am well within that bankroll number so we're fine there.
Second, we NEVER go up limits to try and recoup our losses. This could be disasterous. A 50 BB downswing at 5/10 is bad enough. One at 10/20 is twice as bad. Plus we tend to want to always push harder. This doesn't get us wins--it gets us heartache and trouble. We make bad plays, out of position and lose more money.
So what does a player do who is playing well but in the middle of a downswing? Go back to basics. It happens to all of us. If you smooth the graph above out, it looks like a perfect sawtooth pattern. I win, then I have a downswing, then I win again. Play solid poker. The cards will come your way again. Don't change your game to compensate for losing. If you've moved up levels like I have, you're obviously good enough to play where you are--you don't win 4+ BB/100 hands over tens of thousands of hands from 0.50/1 to 5/10 as a fluke. Don't force things--only bad things come of it, and you become like the fish, the very people we hope to exploit. That is, you make poor plays--certainly, you may get lucky, but making -EV plays even in the short term can be nothing but -EV in the long term.
Walk away. Take some time to do something else. Clear your mind, especially of those thoughts that say, "Pocket Kings? Oh, crap, watch me lose with these again." Confidence and mindset are a lot of what seperates the fish from the sharks.
All players endure downswings--its how we push and grind through them that shows if we're a good player or a great player.
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