Playing Part Time and Variance

Josh from PokerAceHUD wrote me a reply in a forum about playing part time and dealing with variance. I feel I make an accurate assumption in that most of my readers are part-time players, whether pro, semi-pro, or just for fun. Very few of you play ~40 hours weekly, and reach the numbers of hands at a level to either 1) determine your accurate win rate, or 2) see what "the long run" is all about.

I noticed you posted your win rates earlier. You have incredible win rates, but they are for very tiny sample sizes. What's the largest downswing you've ever had? As a winning player, expect to have 100 BB downswings often ($1000), 200 BB downswings occasionally ($2000), and even a 300 BB downswing is possible ($3000). 300 BB is the minimum recommended bankroll for a winning player for a reason.

Losing 50 BB over 1377 hands is nothing. You can lose that much in less than 100 hands. If you were at 200 BB in the same amount of hands, that would be something to worry about, but 50 BB is really just a dip.

One thing that you should watch out for is saying things like this: "I'm a >4 BB/100 winner." If you haven't played more than 200k hands at the limit, you can't tell what your win rate is. 200k hands probably isn't enough to know either. The long run is VERY long. You will be doing very well if you win at 1.5 BB/100...

...I'm not saying you're a bad player! Not at all. Just concentrate more on making correct plays and less on results. The money will follow. This is a lesson that I had to learn the hard way.

I found that profound advice. Everyone's poker situation is different. Mine is that my wife doesn't want this to become an obsession (strike 1), and that she doesn't want me rebuying. My risk of ruin situation is therefore different than most. Going back to the post on variance and bankroll requirements, I could likely set my risk of ruin down to perhaps 0.001 to get a more accurate assumption of risk and bankroll.

But I'm getting away from the point.

Josh makes a fantastic point here about the long run, short term swings, and the like.

The point here is that if you know you're a good player, and I don't mean those of us that overestimate our ability (sheepish grin), and the cards run cold, even though you may go "poker broke," it is vital to continue to play the solid game that got you there. More from Josh:

Yeah, being a part time player means that you probably won't get anywhere near the long run. Fortunately, most people don't run bad long enough to need to hit the long run to win. Most professional players have played over 200k hands. Personally, I have 300k hands in my various PT databases. The limit I have the most on is $3/6, with about 180k hands.

I know what you mean about bad streaks feeling really bad, beyond belief even. The first month of me being a pro I went on a 270 BB downswing, a 200 BB upswing, then a 200 BB downswing. I couldn't win anything. Every big PP got outdrawn, I missed every draw unless it was the second best, etc, etc. It's easy to think that the sites are rigged, but the truth is that this is just poker. When you are putting $30-50 into each pot you play, you will lose significantly when the cards aren't falling your way.

Also, think about the odds. AKo vs 72o is only a 66 to 33 favorite. 1/3 of the time he is going to outdraw you. Of course, 72o is rarely played, but substitute JTo, Q7o, K4s, etc, and you'll see that you really are playing a game made up of a lot of tiny edges. These edges don't always work out the way they should, just like you can flip a coin ten times and have it land heads 10 times. That's the gambling part of poker and be thankful for it because that's what keeps the fish coming back for more.

Right now you are talking to the king of bad beats and negative variance. I've had far more than my share over the past 6-7 months. However, one thing I've since noticed. If you find yourself being less aggressive and less willing to value bet when you know you should, you need to make an effort to snap out of that. While it might save you a little when you are outdrawn, it slows down your recovery because you aren't winning as much in the pots you do take down.

This is absolutely profound stuff to the amateur's mind. Don't tighten up, don't become more passive. It will bite you in the ass more than not. Not only are you getting away from the style of play that MADE you successful, you're intraining bad habits that will affect your play in the future.

This, by the way, is being written after I've taken a good $400 downswing today playing solid hands solidly, and being beaten by underdog hands. My AA vs. KQ--lost to a rivered 4-flush. QJs loses to Q4s with a rivered flush. AQ, raised pre-flop, loses to two idiots calling with 98o EACH to river a straight. These are the bad beats that are a part of a poker player's life.

So what did I do? I dropped down temporarily to 3/6 and just kicked the table in the mouth.

People whine about bad beats all the time, myself included. Ask yourself--why do I take so many bad beats? The answer is simple. You're getting your money in with the best hand WAY more often than not. That makes you a solid poker player. You're making profitable decisions. Poker is not all luck, nor is it all skill. As long as you continue to make profitable decisions, you will in the long run (whatever that point really is) be a profitable player. Keep making good plays, and you will be rewarded.