Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Limit Lessons--Protecting Your Hand

In No-Limit Holdem (NLHE), you can protect a vulnerable hand by betting larger amounts. However, in Limit Holdem (LHE), since bets are limited by the table, you have to work a little harder and a little longer to protect your vulnerable made hands--a little luck doesn't hurt either.

Miller, in Small Stakes Holdem writes,

"The most costly error that you can make is to fold a hand that has a
strong chance to win a large pot..."
"...most small stakes players rarely make this error. In a large
pot, most people instinctively see their decent hands and draws through to the
end. Only players who believe that making 'big laydowns' is the hallmark
of expert play routinely make this mistake. They are doomed to wonder why
they keep losing when they play so expertly."



My feelings on this are fairly well known, but in case you don't know them, here they are...When you have a made hand (like a flopped straight, for example), and you bet-bet-bet, and your opponent just does the old call-call-call until the river when a fourth spade hits and he wakes up and raises, believe me, you're beaten here way more than 9-out-of-10 and you can make a laydown. However, as the pots in today's loose, crappy games get larger and larger with respect to numbers of big bets in them, it becomes more and more profitable in the end to make that crying call just to see if your opponent is bluffing at it.

Anyhoo-- he continues on about protecting your hand, especially in large, multiway pots. The concept is to make players with weak hands (weaker than you, anyway) or draws make a decision between folding their hand, or making a call that could be unprofitable. He also mentions that in some situations, a check-raise will protect your hand when a simple bet will not.

By protecting your hand, we mean to bet/raise/check-raise when you have a made, yet vulnerable hand (top pair, etc) on a board with potential draws on it (flush/straight draws). The major difference that I will explain is in protecting your hand when heads-up versus protecting your hand when in a multi-way pot.

Protecting a Hand Heads-Up
You have QhJh. It's folded around to you, and you raise. Only the BB calls you, and the flop comes Q-T-3 with 2 diamonds. Unless the BB has a stronger Q, you clearly have the best hand here, but your hand is very vulnerable. With a potential straight draw and flush draw on the board, you could be in some trouble. The question now is, do you bet or check-raise? Here, the answer is obvious because if you check and the BB checks behind, you've given the BB a free card to beat you. You need to bet out and hope for the best. If the BB raises you, he is at least on a draw, and may already have you beat. If he flat calls, he's getting 5.5-to-1 on his call, and while you've built a pot for him to lose if he misses, in this situation, it's very hard to protect your hand. You only really have the ability to price out a gutshot draw or a weaker Q or 3. This is the quandry of LHE because the very hands you can price out are the very hands you WANT to stick around.

Protecting a Hand In a Multi-Way Pot
This is the situation where I completely disagree with Sklansky/Miller/Malmuth. Their point makes mathematical sense, but the thing that we all need to remember is that in a 10-handed game, if 4 players at the table understand the idea of pot odds, know how to calculate them, and know how that affects how they play their hand, you've got a table you need to get the hell away from. Miller, et al, say:


"Sometimes a flop raise will not protect your hand. When these situations occur, you should often just call on the flop. If the turn card is safe (boldface added), you plan to protect your hand with a bet or raise. This is especially true when the pot is large, and a lot of fourth street cards might cripple your hand.


He then cites an example where you have Tc8c in the BB. Two people limp, an MP player raises, the button calls, the SB folds, and you call. The flop is QhTh8s. You have a well-disguised big hand, but the flop is treacherous. With 10.5SB in the pot, you check, and it is checked to the raiser who leads out. Miller says that you should flat call. I can understand his reasoning, that a player on a draw would just call anyway, leading to greater pot-odds later for players to call. Also, a ton of turn cards can really put the screws to your hand. A Q, J, or 9 can cripple you, and any heart is also bad. He continues to say that you should call here, and check-raise with any safe turn card, while you can check-fold a scare card. His reasoning, while sound, doesn't always apply to a lot of internet small stakes games. In many situations, a call is seen as weakness, or drawing, a bet or raise is seen as strength, and a check-raise is seen as significant strength. I think this can be worked to your advantage here. He also says that you should wait for the turn to protect your hand if the pot is large, or the bet comes from your left.

It is well known that I am a hyper-aggressive player and that plays like the one Miller suggests are symptomatic in my game of the affliction "Fancy Play Syndrome," or FPS. I'm not sure I could slam on the brakes with even bottom two pair there, especially if I'm first to act. While it might not be correct within the theory of poker to bet out there, I don't think I'm confident enough to hold off for the turn to spring my trap. My goal there would be to bet to lead out on the flop, then either bet (if it's just called) or check-raise (if my flop bet is raised) any non-scare card on the turn.

The other example in SSHE that I completely disagree with is his last one. You have KK in MP, and two EP players limp, and the player to your right raises. You 3-bet, the button cold calls 3-bets, the blinds fold, and the limpers cold-call two more bets. The initial raiser caps, and everyone calls, yielding a 21.5 SB pot to the flop. First of all, I'm not sure I've ever seen 5 players to a capped flop above 3/6 at Stars (though I may be wrong), and whenever someone I have a decent read on caps pre-flop, I immediately think AA or KK, or at worst AK. This is read-dependent, obviously, and if a player is a complete chip-spewing LAG, I'd think other hands, but for the most part, a cap pre-flop means a big pocket pair.

To return to the example, you have KK, there a 5 players to the capped flop, and the flop comes Td-9h-5d. It is checked to the pre-flop capper, who bets. You raise. Again, here, I'd be thinking AA, but with 5 players in a capped flop, it's hard to say, and likely your KK is good against at least 4 of them. If my read is that the capper has AA, I'd probably just call him down. In this game, the read is that the capper is totally LAG, and that he'd do this with just about any two cards. If that is my read, I'm jamming this flop down his throat. Here, everyone calls, and the turn brings the 2s. It is now checked to you, and while I'd fear a check-raise if I felt the capper had AA, I'd still be confident enough to fire another bet here. Again, everyone calls. The flop is the 8s, and it is checked to you again. You fire, and the button raises. Everyone folds to you and you make a crying call to see his J7 for a rivered gutshot straight. First off, Miller acknowledges this guy's terrible pre-flop play. No, he's a friggin' donkey. Point blank-awful. He then contends that the button played the hand correctly after his terrible pre-flop play. He got 12.25-to-1 odds to hit his 11-to-1 shot on the flop. He got 16-to-1 on the turn with an 11-to-1 shot, and he hit his hand on the river. His contention is that you, if you wait until the turn to check-raise, are foregoing a small advantage on the flop to get a larger advantage on the turn. While it is mathematically right, I honestly believe that the majority of games at the 3/6 level and higher on the internet (especially at Stars and Full Tilt Poker--bonus code Pokershark :-) are relatively tight enough that you'd never see 5 to a capped pre-flop pot and that this is a bad example.

To summarize my points, many players are more loath to call a BB on the turn than to call a SB on the flop. Miller's idea makes sense given that. However, to pass up a chance to price even one opponent out of the picture is a very risky proposition, and one that should rarely be done. To protect your hand, bet early and often, and force as many to pay the price to draw on you.

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