I was perusing my blog last night and I realized that I hadn't really posted a true strategy article in a while, and with that being said, one of the most common mistake I've seen (and made) and small-stakes holdem is the overplaying of AK or AQ.
The first bit of information I have to give is that when reading Holdem books from Miller/Sklansky straight through Jones all the way to Hellmuth, AK (particularly suited) is listed as a top-10 hand, and rightfully so. The problem with many authors' work is that no place is it written that, while AK/AQ is a very strong pre-flop holding, it is also exceptionally vulnerable to a variety of hands.
The chance of being dealt any AK pre-flop is 1.2%. Drawing a suited AK drops that chance to 0.3%, and this hand combining the two most powerful cards in the deck can help you win in many ways--you can make a nut flush, a Broadway straight, you can make a powerful pair, and sometimes you can even win unimproved by virtue of having the two highest kickers in the deck. But as many small stakes pots are multi-way, the more players in a given pot, the less likely you are to win unimproved, which brings the reality of the "Suited Broadways," according to Miller and Sklansky, into perspective:
While you have a true top-10 hand, you haven't made a damn thing yet.
So, how am I suggesting you play AK? First of all, as a top-10 hand, you have to raise and re-raise in almost every situation, unless you suspect you are dominated by AA. The key to this hand, suited or not, is that post-flop, particularly in a raised pot, you need to look at this hand as exactly what it is--large (possibly suited) connectors. Now, I'm not saying to go and toss AK away, it's more of a yellow light hand, one where you proceed with caution. Consider these heads-up numbers to see your true situation:
| Odds of AK winning Heads-Up against: | AKs | AKo |
| QQ | 46.02% | 42.66% |
| 99 | 44.16% | 47.43% |
| T9s | 61.05% | 58.59% |
| 22 | 49.77% | 46.67% |
| KQo | 74.92% | 74.47% |
| KK | 33.69% | 29.60% |
| 72o | 69.06% | 67.32% |
While there are a few situations in which you are a big favorite (by having a hand dominated, like KQo or T9s), there are just as many where the situation is nothing more than a race, and other situations (AKo v. KK) where
you are dominated. I see so many players playing this hand like it were pocket aces against an 9-high rainbow flop that it makes you wonder what would happen if they all realized what many solid players already know:
AK, suited or not, more often than not, is a DRAWING HAND!
I suggest you play AK like other connectors--be aggressive, play them cheap, even raise on the flop for a free card. But if you don't hit anything, you need to keep in hand the reality that you
may already be beat. That may be weak-tight of me, but at the same time, it may save you a lot of bets in time.
In a little less than 3 months, I've been dealt AKs 29 times, winning 17 times (58.62%). There is a distinctive split in my profile though. Early on, lets just say from 2/20/05 through 3/12/05, I was dealt Big Slick 12 times, winning half the time, but losing as many large pots as I won. Why? My unwillingness to lay down what I perceived to be a premium hand. What is the best play in poker? Laying down trip kings the second you realize that you're up against trip aces. Of those twelve times, AKs only won unimproved once. I won without showdown four times, and of my losses, I pushed unimproved cards twice, losing to a board-paired ten and a board-paired jack. I also lost to trip queens, two pair (neither was an ace or a king, a full house, and a pocket pair that held up. After 3/12, I played the hand more aggressively, but also was willing to fold it more often, and each time I did, I made a correct call--that someone with what could have been perceived as a weaker hand had drawn and beaten me.
As for AKo, as you would expect, it's more common--I was dealt it 91 times, with similar results. I would win my share of pots, but I would lose larger pots than I would win. With more aggressive play, and willingness to lay down a loser, I was able to save bets for better situations.
To extend the discussion to AQs and AQo, which in my opinion are actually more dangerous hands, the key to all the big suited and offsuit Broadway hands is to adopt a simple strategy:
1) Raise the pot to limit multi-way action.
2) See the flop.
3) In hands you miss, play aggressively to try and earn a free card--however, if someone plays it back at you hard, and you haven't hit the flop at all (no draw, pair, etc), realize that you may already be beaten or even drawing dead.
4) In hands you hit, play them hard--don't let someone else draw out cheaply on you.
5) Be ready to lay down even your premium hands if you suspect a set, or if you're playing suited cards that don't catch any flop without hitting anything else.
In summary, when you look down at your hole cards and see AK, realize that you have a truly premium hand and that you should play it fast, but also keep in the back of your mind that you are still vulnerable to pocket pairs staying in by cold-calling your raise hitting sets, or to flops that don't share your suit. There is nothing worse than having Ace-King of spades, and watching the flop come down three hearts.
AK is a fantastic hand--she's like that ex-girlfriend that was just awesome--only she was real high-maintenance. Just like the ex, don't get married to AK--she'll bleed you dry if you hang around long enough.
Back to blogging--I'm about half-way through the Stars reload bonus. IMHO, it's much more +EV to play a limit table WITH a no-limit table. The limit tables don't require as high a rake relative to the stakes to earn FPP's, especially the lower limit (0.50/1 is my current favorite--a 50 cent rake gets you an FPP) tables. ABC poker will make you a ton of money there, just be prepared for suckouts on occasion. The NL tables at Stars are a lot tougher than I remember. It could be that everybody already has me in their
Poker Tracker DB, and when I fling a pot-sized bet on the flop they all decide to bail out. So what usually happens is that I'm winning a lot of pots with aggression--small pots, but pots nonetheless. I'll also win an occasional big pot, and lose the occasional big pot. What I've run in to though, is the weak-tight player--the one who will call your aggressiveness to build a pot, either slowplaying or just drawing, then spring a trap when they hit their hand or suspect that you missed yours. I won't get taken at showdown a lot, since I feel I have a decent read on such players (and in multi-way pots, I usually find out that I'm right).
And if you use Poker Tracker (and what winning player doesn't, duh?), there's a cat over at
Bet The Pot that goes by the name of excession, who put out a new set of
NL autorate rulesand an
article describing them that I find extremely useful--I know, I should be pimping
Iggy and
Hank right now, but I found that these autorates are a huge help, especially at NL. Imagine my surprise when I sit at a table and find that of the 9 players there, two are fish, and including myself, there are
4 eagles (TA) playing. I should suggest to Pat that in any new release, without apologies to Phil Hellmuth and his animal types (chill, Phil, I bought BOTH books), that the new icon for TA players should be a shark. I mean, hell, wouldn't it suit me better than an eagle?
But I digress. If you haven't signed up at
Ultmate Bet yet, what the hell are you waiting for? If you put me (Tiburon0041) down as a referral, you'll get another $25 bonus dollars besides the existing bonus (which may or may not apply to new accounts--not sure). Great site, yada yada yada. You know it already. Go over there and sign the hell up. I'd sign up just so I could see Phil Hellmuth melt down on an online table, which he has been known to do...
