Not Another Bad Beat Story

But this may be one of the WORST pre-flop calls in history:

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9d, 9s.

UTG raises, 2 folds, MP2 3-bets, MP3 caps, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 4h, 6s, 8d (4 players)

BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, MP3 3-bets, BB folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (11.75 BB) 7d (3 players)

UTG bets, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, UTG 3-bets, MP2 calls.

River: (17.75 BB) 2h (2 players)

UTG bets, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 19.75 BB

Results in white below:

UTG has 7s 5s (straight, eight high).

MP2 has Ks Kd (one pair, kings).

Outcome: UTG wins 19.75 BB.

You know, I'm wondering if I have the temperment for this game. If this guy does this to me live, I might just get up and knock his teeth out. What an idiot. And of course, he hits the flop.

Ok, We Have To Settle a Few Things

The "Donkey" post from a couple days ago...

First of all, "donkey" is my new favorite word. I'm a donkey, you're a donkey, wouldn't you like to be a donkey too?

Second--What makes the post ironic is that I wrote a post a few weeks back called The Dangers of AK. It's actually a fantastic read. I recommend it strongly.

Unfortunately, I didn't take my own damn advice.

Third--My point, despite actually a great comment from an anonymous user last night, is that the first hand, a classic case of AKo losing to 65o (?), was a crappy play. By both of us. The BB didn't come along for the ride, so he was calling 1.5 SB to win a total of 3.5 SB, which gives him 2.3-to-1 odds pre-flop. Where does he stand?

He was a 62-38 underdog pre-flop (better than I had thought), so the call theoretically was good. I made my mistake playing past the flop. After the flop, I was almost a 3-to-1 underdog. So why did I play it? Because in my mind, people don't call raises from out-of-position with 65o. From this point, I overplayed my hand. Why? If I recall, this guy was raising with junk, and playing things to the river that he had no shot on. I had played 18 hands with him. He had showed hands like J6s (calling a raise with it), and playing it clear to the river with a Q-A-J-A-Q board). I knew that despite what he showed, that he may have missed everything too. I use this other hand as an example:

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9h, 9c.

3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO = Villain calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 8d, 4h, 7s (2 players)

Hero bets, Villain calls.

At this point, I have an overpair. He doesn't know what overpair, but he knows I have one. He can't lay down his TPTK.
Turn: (3.66 BB) Qc (2 players)

Hero bets, Villain raises, Hero calls.

This is where he wants to seperate. He's representing AQ, KQ, or QQ here. I don't believe him, but it's an effective tool, and it slows me down.
River: (7.66 BB) 3h (2 players)

Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero calls.

At this point, either I have him beat, or it's a crying call. I figure that I'm getting enough here (8.66-to-1) to make the call, even though I may be beaten. I do know, that unless he has a bigger pair than me (TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, or the above AQ, KQ, QQ, or even QJ, I'm safe.
Final Pot: 9.66 BB

Results below:

Hero has 9h 9c (one pair, nines).

Villain has 8h Ah (one pair, eights).

Outcome: Hero wins 9.66 BB.

A turn check raise can be a bluff to slow down an aggressive player. It's usually used by a player who has position.

But I digress.

I overplayed the hand, actually both of them. I was on a bit of tilt after it, and that probably explained the A9o out of position. I've run into players lately playing junk out of position for raises and hitting. Any two suited and drawing to runner-runner flushes, things like that. So when I see somebody playing 65o, they piss me off. But I know that they are the reasons I make the money I do. The beats will even out. As much as I hate to say it, the <*)))>< are vital to poker.

Great analysis and discussion, anonymous. Feel free to stop by more often.

Not Running Cold Any More

I've done very well at the Stars 1/2 and 2/4 games as of late, and I have the online bankroll at what is by FAR its highest. Good stuff, and a move-up in limits is definitely in order in the short term.

WARNING--Extreme Sappiness Ahead

Now for something far more important. In 33 days, the PokerShark will be getting married (and I'll be able to call her Mrs. PokerShark for real). If anybody tells you that planning a wedding is the greatest thing you'll ever do, take it from me. They lie. For me, I just want it to be here already. People have asked me if I'm getting nervous. Absolutely not. I've been dating the beautiful and talented Mrs. PokerShark for 11+ years now. In fact, our 12th anniversary will be our wedding day (and yes, it was planned that way). I've lived with her for more than 3 years now. If I'm nervous and I haven't spoken up yet, then, damn, I better just hold my own damn peace.

It's stressful at times, and poker has become my release. It's very stressful, and VERY worth it. I'm going to get the chance to stand up in front of both our families and all our friends and shout at the top of my lungs (well, maybe not THAT loud) that I love my fiancee. We can celebrate our love and begin a new chapter of life together.

And we get to go to Hawaii on our honeymoon, which despite all the stress and expense of a wedding, makes it all worth it. We're both somewhat stressed out about it, but come July 23, none of it matters. All that matters is us. And I like that.

The Cards Just Aren't Falling for You When:

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter



Preflop: Hero is SB with Ah, Kh.

Villain raises, 7 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, Villain calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Jc, Kc, Th (3 players)

Hero bets, BB calls, Villain calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 4s (3 players)

Hero bets, BB calls, Villain calls.

River: (9 BB) 9c (3 players)

Hero bets, BB folds, Villain raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB
Villain had QQ--rivered straight...Ouch. I don't know if I could've laid that down either though. I don't blame him for the play. This is just a sign that you're running shitty.

The Calling Stations are Getting the Best of Me

Look at these pieces of crap....

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Ks, Kc.

2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, Douchebag calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Now I figure that my 3-bet will eliminate anybody but your big Broadways (AK, AQ, AJ), and your big pairs (AA-TT)...
Flop: (12.50 SB) 9h, Td, 3s (4 players)

BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, Douchebag calls, BB calls, UTG+2 folds.

My only fear here is someone slowplaying AA or TT.
Turn: (7.75 BB) 7s (3 players)

BB checks, Hero bets, Douchebag calls, BB calls.

In limit, you can't make up missing that many bets, so whomever is still in is drawing.
River: (10.75 BB) As (3 players)

BB checks, Hero bets, Douchebag calls, BB folds.

I figure I have to have the hand won here.
Final Pot: 12.75 BB

Results in white below:

Hero has Ks Kc (one pair, kings).

Douchebag has Tc 9c (two pair, tens and nines).

What the f*%$? He called 3 friggin' bets with T9s?
Outcome: Douchebag wins 12.75 BB.

...after this one...

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter


Preflop: Hero is Button with Jc, Ad.

5 folds, Douchebag calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, Douchebag calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) Ah, 5c, Kh (2 players)

Douchebag bets, Hero raises, Douchebag 3-bets, Hero calls.

All I fear here is AA, KK, AK, or AQ.
Turn: (5.75 BB) 8d (2 players)

Douchebag bets, Hero calls.

Let me go weak tight here...Maybe he has something.
River: (7.75 BB) 5h (2 players)

Douchebag bets $2 (All-In), Hero calls.

I feel I have a read, that he doesn't have those hands, and all he has in $2, so let me call him.
Final Pot: 9.75 BB

Results in white below:

Douchebag has Th 8h (flush, ace high).

Again, WTF? 3-bets a flop with T8s? Bets a weak draw? My baby Jebus, the aquarium is most definitely full. These guys SUCK. But they keep winning money from me!
Hero has Jc Ad (two pair, aces and fives).

Outcome: Douchebag wins 9.75 BB.
At least he wasn't weak tight...I just can't believe he's betting such a weak draw, especially against somebody who is just known for the stop n'go, and sucking every penny out of his opponents. He obviously doesn't use Poker Tracker, and damn sure never read the Guide.

I really believe now that WSOP time brings out every idiot who ever watched poker on TV. And of course, 'cause Negreanu played T8s for a raise, it's good for these superstars too. I gave up on Ultimate Bet, after losing $85 on the site in my bonus quest. I reviewed my big losses in Tracker , and I lost $28.75 with set over set, $11.30 with flopped top two pair against turned set (AK vs. QQ), and other amounts in similar situations. It's just a matter of running cold, and the fish simply drawing out. But I honestly have never seen players playing more garbage hands than I do now. For raises, limps, betting the house on a flush draw, it doesn't matter. The cards also seem to constantly reward this horrendous play as well. While I know that superior play will win out, it hurts that for stretches, it seems like the poker gods forget the solid player. Maybe it's just their way of keeping the fish playing long enough or making them think they're good enough to pay back the solid players. C'est la vie (again).

Ultimate Bet Has Been Rough

Seems like there are many more tougher players at UB as of late. That combined with the fact that I've been beaten set over set twice in 3 days for a buy-in has made this bonus hunt extremely -EV. Winning breeds winning, and right now, I'm not breeding a damn thing. Lost half a buy in with AK when I flopped TPTK, bet the pot and got called by a guy with QQ who hit his Q on the turn. They're not necessarily bad plays--just bad luck. I couldn't have laid down QQ there either, so even though the guy did hit a two-outer, I'd have done the same thing (except I would have gotten ALL of my stack).

I feel like I'm playing solid, but just not getting any luck. See this example:

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (9 handed)


MP1 ($21)
MP2 ($24.75)
MP3 ($3.90)
CO = Villain ($29.60)
Button ($24.40)
SB ($12.25)
Hero ($28.75)
UTG ($11.50)
UTG+1 ($22.20)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Kh, 7h.

UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 raises to $0.5, MP1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Villain calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, Ricky calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.25, UTG calls $0.25.

Flop: ($3.60) 7s, 6c, 7c (7 players)

Hero bets $0.75, UTG calls $0.75, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Villain raises to $3.5, Button folds, Hero raises to $14.35, UTG folds, Villlain goes all-in for $29.10, Hero goes all-in for $28.25, Villain returned $0.85 (uncalled)

Final Pot: $60.35

Results in white below:

Villain shows Ah, 7d, and has three of a kind, sevens, ace kicker.
Hero shows Kh, 7h, and has three of a kind, sevens, king kicker.
Villain wins $57.35

Of course he had the case seven AND the ace kicker...just some bad luck. What are you gonna do?

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World Series of Poker Results

Event #2 (NLHE $1500 buy-in)--2305 entries!
Allen Cunningham won this one, beating out Scott Fischman (2nd), and Dave "Devilfish" Ulliot (3rd) for the first prize of $725k. Last year's main event was the largest live poker tournament ever. If the Rio hadn't capped entries, this would have beaten it. And to think that this year's first eventhad a first prize that was just about the same size as when Phil Hellmuth won the main event in 1989--that shows how much poker has grown. As for other notables, An Tran finished 7th, and Hellmuth took 24th in this event.

Event #3 (PLHE $1500 buy-in)--1071 entries
Congrats to Thom Werthmann who outlasted Layne Flack and Tony Ma for the $369k first prize.

Event #4 (LHE $1500)--1049 entries
Eric Froelich won the $361k first prize and became the youngest player ever to win a WSOP bracelet.

Event #5 (O8B $1500)--699 entries
Pat Poels got through a tough field and won $270k.

Event #6 (SH NLHE $2500)--548 entries
Isaac Galazan outlasted Harry Demetriou and Antonio Esfandiari to take home $315k and a bracelet.

Event #7 (NLHE $1000+rebuys)--826 entries, 1495 rebuys
Have I ever mentioned how much I HATE rebuys? As of this writing, the event is at the final table, and Chuck Thompson is the chip leader with 544k. Phil Gordon is still in, but short stacked at about 125k.

Event #8 (7 Stud $1500)--472 entries
They're down to the final 20, with play resuming later today.

A big thanks to Dr. Pauly for his updates, and to Poker Player Newspaper for final results.

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A final note, I was drawn out on in back-to-back hands. Pocket 7's UTG +1. I raise pre-flop, get 1 caller. The flop comes 9-9-T. I bet the pot plus, and get called. Turn card is a Q. Caller goes all-in for much more than I have, and I fold. Correctly, I might add, since he showed me his KJo. Two hands later, I flop the Broadway straight (with 2 hearts on board--Q-T-J) with AKs, bet the pot. Turn card pairs the board (a Jh, I believe), I bet the pot again, and the river is the 2h. I go all-in for my remaining pittance, and this guy flips over his KK (with a heart), for his runner-runner flush. Buy-in gone, IGHN. Oh well. It's what happens when you run cold. C'est la vie!

I've Been Away for a While...

...and I've been so occupied by other things (wedding) that I haven't had a damn bit of time to update the blog (or read anyone else's, either). I'd like to thank those who commented on my AK post, and I'd also like to send a shout-out to everybody over at Bet The Pot, a fantastic community of poker players who can have great, entertaining, and civil discussion unlike some people over at that other board.

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As some of you know, I'm getting married in less than 2 months (July 23, 2005, if you wanted to know), and as all of you know who have planned these affairs in the past, the last two months is the time when things get crazy. Now is certainly that time. Consequentially, not a lot of poker, and not a lot of wisdom, except for this one nugget:

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If you're planning on getting married, make sure someone else bankrolls you--otherwise, it's -EV.

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But I have played a little at the tables, and I have had the chance to notice something. People love to play suited connectors, and sometimes, the connector part is optional. For a mathematical guy like myself, this is kind of interesting, so...

Playing Suited Connectors and other Suited Junk

The mathematician in me knows that it's 4.25-to-1 that you will be dealt two down cards of the same suit in Texas Holdem. I also know that it's 25.5-to-1 for you to be dealt suited cards that also connect. So it's pretty rare, right? Just because something's rare doesn't mean it's worth a 5 BB pre-flop raise or cold calling a 3-bet, though.
I see more players playing suited junk and connectors out of position now than ever. The scary part is that those are the worst beats a solid player usually gets. Your flopped set that you played hard gets beaten by a nine-high flush the guy caught on the river. You just want to reach through the internet and wring his neck, right? But remember, he did beat you...
In his outstanding book, Small Stakes Holdem, Ed Miller says that in a loose game, which many small stakes games are, you should be limping 98s from any position, all suited connectors down to 43s in late position, and any two suited from the blinds. I personally disagree. Playing suited connectors or any two suited out of position is an advanced play, one that could cost you greatly if you're not real sure of what you're doing. If you have position on a bunch of limpers, I can definitely see it. The connectors could hit a straight, a draw, or even a flush, but the important thing is to know when to let them go. For example, if you're not aggressive protecting your hand (and even sometimes if you are), you could flop your flush and lose your hand. Case in point: You're in MP, dealt 9h 8h, and 3 limpers enter the pot. The flop comes down 2h 6h Kh. You've hit your hand. Now what? Do you bet it, and risk losing customers? Do you slow play it, and hope that nobody else has big hearts on the table? This is the dilemma you're in playing these cards. Say for example someone took my advice and limped with Ah Kd. Now he has TPTK and the nut flush draw. Bet hard and lose customers. Play it slower, and risk your extremely vulnerable hand being beaten. See the problem?
These hands (98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s and other suited junk) will make you some decent pots if you hit them. In the above example, if he goes all-in to re-raise you, and no heart falls, you will scoop a large pot. However, a heart beats you immediately. The moral of the story is this: Mix in your suited junk for variety--if you get lucky (what it really is) and hit your hand, enjoy the rewards, but like AK before, these are all drawing hands, and need to be played with caution. Don't be afraid to let them go if you miss your cards.

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Party Poker keeps sending me these "Please Come Back!" bonuses. They just plop $20 into my account, and I can withdraw it after 200 raked hands. Watch me freeroll the $25NL tables...The screen name is Tiburon41, so say hi if you see me. I'll be the LAG nitwit playing 98s all the time. Hey, it's not my money right?