Plugging Leaks in the NL Game

Every once in a while, I go digging in my PokerTracker database to see what hands are costing me the most money, and it serves as a nice reminder of why exactly I don't do this for a living, since some of the hands I play and lose money with are just flat out stupid.

Here's my criteria for discovering leak hands. This is the results-oriented version of the scan, but it still shows a decent amount of leakage:

1) The hands must have a respective VP$IP of >50%, meaning that I actually PLAY the hand, not just do something stupid from a blind.

2) The hands must be an overall money loser (in terms of BB/hand)

Now, on to the fun (in no particular order):

1) This is, and has been, the biggest leak in my game, both NL, and Limit: Ace-x suited. I know that you rarely make a flush from two suited cards in your hand. So why do I play these cards so damn often? It's not only the small Axs'--it goes as high as AJs and AQs:

AQs: VP$IP: 100%, PFR: 100%, BB/Hand: -0.44
AJs: VP$IP: 100%, PFR: 90%, BB/Hand: -0.35

I wrote an article a while back about AK, which can be found here, and I still haven't fully taken my own advice. Examine these two hands--what can be taken from these? Are they raising hands? Yes, and these are hands that can be raised with almost irregardless of position. They are very strong hands, so why am I losing money with them? Simple. They haven't made a damn thing yet. They are drawing hands. If you don't flop an ace, or your kicker (Q or J) as the high card on the board, you have absolutely nothing. Ace-high. How often does ace-high win a nice sized pot? You got it. Hardly ever. You have the advantage of being suited, but what does that really do for you if you don't flop at least a flush draw?

These are hands that can make money for you, but should be played with caution, since they generally will either win you many small pots, or lose you a few big ones.

The thought process? Raise to 5 BB (2.5 PTBB), miss the flop, lead out with pot-sized continuation bet (5 PTBB), win small pot. Or, get re-raised and dump it. These hands are real nice, but you need to know when to toss them away.

2) Continuing the stupidity:

A9s: 100/70/-1.93
A5s: 82/0/-0.33
A4s: 78/0/-0.17
A3s: 80/0/-1.04
A2s: 70/0/-3.77

A9s is a great way to go broke, since many players will call a raise with AQ, AJ, or AT, and you make yourself quite the wonderful second best hand to lose money on. Again, you end up chasing flushes or chasing the ace to improve your hand.

Hint: If you have A9s, you raise pre-flop, see a Jack-high flop, toss in a continuation bet and get called--you're usually in deep trouble. Don't let the "weak" play fool you. What is Caro's number one primary tell? Weak is strong, strong is weak. Most online players aren't smart enough to reverse-tell you, but they do know how to slowplay and trap an "overly aggressive player" who is tossing chips away on what could be loosely called a semi-bluff.

3) If you're just reading this post, this will surprise you quite a bit:

KK: 100/100/-6.62

This is the single losingest hand in my limited NL database. Why? I've won 10 of the 12 times I was dealt cowboys, but the other two times, within an hour at PokerRoom, I ran KK into AA. Both times the opponent was relatively loose, and I didn't give him credit for AA, even when he re-raised me AGAIN. Both hands went, (opponent) open-raise, (me) re-raise, (opponent) re-re-raise--don't try and steal my raise, bastard. I have COWBOYS!, (me) push. (opponent) insta-call.

One time I actually rivered a set. Shame he flopped his set. The other time, I was just screwed from the beginning, and there is NOTHING worse in the world than flipping over KK and seeing AA across from you, while all your chips are sitting in the middle of the table.

Phil Gordon said (very simply), "The fourth raise means aces." I add to it--except when you make the fourth raise without aces, and the player across from you has them, in which case, the insta-call (whoops) means aces.

4) This is what I call a "borderline hand." On it's own, it sucks, but with the right flop you can win some serious coin, or make another lovely second-best hand. Overall, I win with these hands when I go to the flop--it's just beyond that I get into trouble. The flop continuation bet is okay as a move. Trying it on the turn and river, especially to a calling station, is nothing more than just donking off chips:

KQs: 100/100/-3.51
KJs: 94/42/-0.77
QTs: 82/9/-3.01

The last one is just plain stupid. Trying to steal with garbage and getting caught with your hand in the cookie jar--brilliant. D'oh.

5) What are the most dangerous hands in Texas Hold'em? Simple. The second best hand. Also on the list are those damn middle pairs. Everybody knows that 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, and 77 are all "set-it-or-forget-it" propositions. But what about 88, 99, TT, or JJ? How far will you take ANY of these hands when a Q hits the flop, or any other overcard? If your answer was, "They hit the muck," then go to the head of the class. So why can't I do that?

Lesson learned for me, and I hope for you as well.

The "Long Run" of Poker

If you learn anything playing this game, it's that the "long run" is extremely long indeed. For example, when I first got myself back to playing a lot of LHE on Stars in February, I was literally crushing the 3/6 and 5/10 games and have taken quite a bit off the tables in cashouts.

That's where the bubble burst. It seems as though I just can't log myself a decent session at Stars since the cashouts (tinfoil hat anyone??), so what do I do? Continue to donk off chips in games that just aren't working for me? Hell no. I discovered PokerRoom, and started playing some $50NL there. I originally took $300 with me to clear a bonus, and within 2 days, I had cashed out the $300, cleared the bonus, and was playing with other people's money by being murderously aggressive. It's almost like I'm taking out my aggravation at the Stars LHE games on the poor sots over at PokerRoom. Sometimes a change in venue is required to get your game straight.

So I'm down close to $600 at Stars since my cashouts--where's my tinfoil hat?--and I've taken a mini-break from LHE, and I'm winning at PokerRoom, and I really haven't done a whole lot with Full Tilt lately. I decide to enter a new player freeroll at PokerRoom last night.

You can tell it's a freeroll when:

You go 2+ levels without playing a hand. You get dealt AA, raise 4x BB from UTG+1, get re-raised to 500 by a LP player, push all in, and see your AA heads up with 88. Of course, the 8 flops and your night is over.

But that's okay. It was a freeroll.

Then I saw THIS hand at the $50NL at Full Tilt (no, not a BAHH, just a re-cap). I'm UTG with AKs, and raise to $2.50. MP1 re-raises me to $7, and I flat call, and we're heads-up to the flop. Flop comes K-6-2 rainbow, and I check, figuring he'll be glad to do the betting for me. He bets $6 into a $14+ pot, and I push. He insta-calls, and shows...QQ? Turn brings an A, river gives the donkey his two-outer.

I actually had to ask him what his logic was in calling that bet in that situation. He said, and I quote, "There were still two queens in the deck. I figured one would come."

I responded, "Cute, but no, seriously, how could you call that," expecting him to say something like that he thought I was bluffing or something like that.

His deathly serious response, "I've been sucked out on a lot tonight, and I knew I was beat, but figured I was due."

No shit.

But it's all just a single hand in the big session of life.

Future plans right now include getting back to the LHE tables at Stars and getting myself back to the level of dominance I've exhibited over the last year--the "longer than now" run. I think I need to stop analyzing what the hell's happening over there. So this will be it, I promise. Trying to avoid the legendary tinfoil hat issue, all I can say is that it seems like someone over at Stars is sitting there, watching me play, and suddenly, they pull out the "He Can't Win" button and lay on it for a few weeks.

Some of these things are just ridiculous. I'm not immune to tilt, and I know for sure that a good amount of the losses have been tilt-dependent, but sometimes it makes you wonder. My Tracker numbers are identical, but it's just two numbers that tell the story: W$SD and, of course, winnings.

February 1-May 1, W$SD: 58.35%
May 1-May 24, W$SD: 41.65%

Ok. When I had the meltdown last fall, it looked like so...
January 1, 2005-October 8, 2005, W$SD: 56.32%
October 8, 2005-December 31, 2005, W$SD: 40.68%

VP$IP, PFR, AF-Total, etc. are virtually statistically identical. What happens, and this is the part of poker that frustrates me so much, is that the motherphucking luck element raises its ugly head. What's the difference in the above ranges? Your AK's don't hit. That third heart hits the river, allowing the idiot to hit his flush. The BB flops a straight to take down your top set. You start running KK into AA, AQ into AK, and AK into A2 when the 2 hits the river.

Which of course, puts you on tilt, which of course, tosses your game into the crapper, and you compound the problem by adjusting your style from Ultra-Aggressive to Ultra-Shitty. And so it goes. The only way to cure this, IMHO, is to take a break from the game to help block the negative mojo from your mind. Of course, it didn't help that the PokerStars 5-Billionth Hand thingy has been going on, which of course brought every moron with a dream out to play their brand of stupid poker. Only thing is, the "He Can't Win" button overcame my ability to outplay the truly idiotic. Of course, the button is only in my mind, and players like this are exactly the ones we want to play against, since they are the players that are building my adorable daughter's college fund.

Again, just a single hand in the big session of life.

Keep telling yourself that--it's just a single hand in the big session of life.

Go--Sign Up Now!

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This Online Poker Tournament is a No Limit Texas Holdem event exclusive to Bloggers.

Registration code: 7330476

Project Cashout and Other Stuff

One of the things I've decided to do since the birth of my beautiful daughter is start taking more regular withdrawals from my poker accounts. Since May 1, I've been able to make over $1000 between cashouts from various sites, rakeback, and other revenues. It's worked out very well, even despite the rough stretch over at Stars.

In homage to Jordan's "To Do List" post, I've decided to make a sort of modified list, a list of my "poker goals" for the summer months:

Cash out at least $1000/month in winnings and other revenues. I think this is attainable if I play patient, smart, and avoid the tilt-monster.

Finish off the promotions I have going on now, and withdraw that money (with a positive balance, unlike the debacle I dealt with at Absolute Poker...another day) and lather, rinse repeat for some more goodies.

Play in some NL tournaments, maybe one live at the Taj (of course, if the Baby Shark allows) to prep myself for the run I plan to take at the US Poker Championship (USPC) at the Taj in September. I'd like to play in one preliminary event, and pending the results there, maybe take a crack at a satellite at the Main Event.

Play enough on Stars (with the help of increased VPP rates) to get to 20,000 VPPs. I want a friggin' iPod 30GB, and I want it now. Yeah, I'm the guy still left in the US without an iPod.

To re-iterate another point from #1, above, avoid tilt at all costs. Bad beats are just that, bad beats, and are not a conspiracy by the poker sites to screw you out of your money.

Just think, the fact that you take bad beats in the first place mean that you're getting your money in with the best of it consistently--think of the beats that way--and that you forced your opponent into making a severe mistake to call and put the beat on you.

And now, to answer TripJax' Blogger version of 21 Questions:

1. What is the biggest mistake people make at a NL table?
Playing far too loosely, especially in terms of calling raises.

2. What is the biggest mistake people make at a Limit table?
Calling without having appropriate odds to call--but that's how I make my money...

3. Why do you play poker?
I'm competitive by my nature, I love the competition, and because the mathematics and theory of the game intrigues me. The money is just another perk.

4. If you weren't playing poker, what would you be doing?
Probably improving my handicap--you know, what I was doing before this obsession took over my soul.

5. What is your favorite poker book and why?
Small Stakes Hold'em by Miller, Sklansky, and Malmuth. Why? Because that book was a primary reason I went from being an "okay" break-even player to being an excellent and very profitable limit-hold'em player.

6. Who is your favorite poker player and why?
Tough one. I like Greg Raymer because he's a real guy like me--a professional dude with a career and a family who did this for fun, then as a profitable hobby, then became a World Champion. If it's not Raymer, it's probably Phil Ivey, just for his straight-ahead, murderer approach to the game. If it's not those two, it's Marcel Luske, because he's such a damn nice guy. Ferguson and Lederer are way up there too on that "good guy" list.

7. Which poker player do you dislike the most and why?
Tough one. I haven't really met any pros other than some online interaction, but the guys that rub me the wrong damn way are Hellmuth (just because he overdoes it and projects and unprofessional look), and Sheikhan--who, as Joe Speaker said, is just a first class asshole at the table. He might be a great guy away from the game, but as far a poker player goes, he comes off as a real dick, and he makes me want to play him for a stack or two--and bust his ass back to wherever it was he came from.

8. Do your coworkers know about your blog?
Yes, and the only thing anybody cares about is that I don't gamble from work. I never have, so it's a non-issue. They're more concerned with my gratuitous use of the internet from work than what the hell I do on it. And by the way, Bracelet--you rock, the stuffed shirts suck.

9. What is the most you have won in a cash game or MTT (both live and online)?
I've won a $20+2 LHE tourney on PokerStars, cashing after a final table chop for like $500 or so, and I've had $500 days in LHE cash games more than a few times. I've also cashed in the Taj Wednesday night tourney (13th of 300+) for about $200.

10. What is the most you have lost in a cash game or in one day total (both live and online)?
In what can be called the worst day of my poker life, I lost two buy-ins at 5/10 LHE, then moved up to 10/20 to make it back. Bad idea. I ended up losing over $1000 that day. Since then, I've implemented stop-loss limits.

11. Who was your first poker blog read?
Maudie, then Halverson, then Iggy and Pauly.

12. What satisfies you more, your aces holding up for a big pot or a bluff working for a big pot?
The satisfaction that I outplayed my opponent is the thing, so it has to be the bluff. I love big pots regardless of how they come, but outplaying my opponent is the real deal.

13. Why do you blog?
Because everybody else does it. :-) No, I blog because I feel that I have some things, whether strategy, entertainment, or anything else, to contribute to the community at large. Plus, I can look back and laugh at all of this some day.

14. Do you read blogs from an RSS reader like bloglines or do you visit each blog?
Mostly bloglines, but I will visit blogs on my list regularly.

15. Would you rather play poker for a living than do what you currently do for a living?
Part of me says absolutely, but this (poker) is a tough ass way to make an easy living. I'm really good at this, but nobody avoids the variance bug.

16. Do you wear a tin foil hat on occasion?
No, but I have wondered about the legendary "cashout curse," does that count?

17. If you had to pin it down to one specific trait, what does a great poker player have (or do) that separates them from an average player?
I don't think I could say one, but definitely two--First, the ability to shrug off losses and focus on their play, realizing that results will come so long as they make correct decisions. Second, the ability (or super-human in the case of a guy like Daniel Negreanu) to read people to a "tee." Watching Negreanu play sometimes is fun. You wonder sometimes, when he's really on, if he's just seeing his opponents' cards face up.

18. Is Drizz the coolest person on the planet for naming his baby Vegas?
Yeah, sorta, but my baby's cuter. Sorry, Drizz, I just had to.

19. What is your primary poker goal and are you close to accomplishing it?
See above. I want to have poker as a profitable hobby, and make a little money on the side

20. What is your primary online site and why?
PokerStars and Full Tilt. I've loved Stars since the beginning. It's where I started, and it's where I play a ton even now. Great software, and for whatever reason, I've had more success there (expressed as winrates) than any place else. Full Tilt because it's a well-designed and well-run site.

21. What site do you dislike and why?
I hate Party Poker. Always have, always will. I just can't seem to win there, and it's always a string of just horrendous beats that cost me my money. The Schooling of the Fish is just too intense there for me to overcome.

It's been fun, but work beckons, so continued luck at the tables!

Glad to See You Back, Doc...

The great Dr. Pauly has returned to blogging, and while perusing his last few posts, I found some of the greatest stuff written on limit poker. No, not the Wall Street Game story, which is fantastic all on its own.

I'm talking about this little portion of his post from last week, Through the Looking Glass: April Maelstrom:

I've been trying to improve my play on the turn in limit poker. I have to remind myself to stay aggressive and not give any free cards. On Party Poker, I have experienced that players who check-raise on the turn with a drawing board (two suited cards or two straight cards) are usually players who have a big draw. In the past, I just called the check-raise on a board with two diamonds. Nowadays, I jam the fucker if I think I got the best hand. If he has a higher set or a better two pair, then so be it. Never give someone a chance to catch up with a free card because you are scared you're gonna get check-raised. Jen Harman mentioned that in her chapter in Super System 2.

Harman also discusses that the key to short-handed limit poker is aggression and isolation. If you are going to play any hand at a short-handed table, you have to raise preflop. You are trying to thin the field and play heads-up against the blinds or someone else. She's also a staunch proponent of defending your blinds in short-handed play. I've improved that aspect of my game. I'm not giving up my big blinds as much as I used to. That was my biggest leak according to Poker Tracker... my blind play was awful. Sometimes I think I'm defending too much, or defending too little. I had to pay more attention to the situation. Plus if you know that someone's on a button steal, call and be prepared to check-raise them on the flop. And if I win the pot with nothing, I'll show my junk hand to prove that I'll defend my blinds with anything and to increase the implied tilt odds of the table.

The hardest part about cracking low limit games like the 2-4 at Foxwoods or the 2-4 at Commerce is that there are 7+ players to every flop. Your aces and big pairs decrease in value with so many players seeing a flop. That's why you have to play more hands, especially any two cards in late position to do well. And even then, you're gonna experience huge swings.

Moving up in levels decreases the number of players per pot. Limpers are more willing to fold in a 10-20 game than a 2-4 game. Plus most pots that I win at 10-20 are taken down before showdown. I remembering reading Lou Krieger's book Hold'em Excellence and he spoke about in low limit poker that you are need the best hand to win at showdown so don't try to bluff. But at the higher limits, you can get away with missing flops with small pairs or A-K and A-Q and still take down the pot with a continuation bet.

I haven't gotten used to play 10-20 shorthanded 6-max. I play too timid when I move up in levels for the first time. I hate playing scared. Here's an example...

I'll found J-J and re-raised from the cutoff. With two callers there was a King on the rainbow flop. One guy bet out and the action came to me. I raised and he re-raised.

"Pocket Death," is how Derek describes pocket Jacks.

He's right. So do I call or fold? I folded and dropped my pants to find my testicles. Normally I would have called the raise and check-called all the way to the river. Since it's limit, that's only another 2.5 BB investment. I told you I play new levels like a pussy. I would have called that in a heartbeat if it was a 5/10 table.

Now if that hand was live, then that's another story. I have a better read on people in live games. I've been catching civilians lying to me all the time. At least poker players get to practice their poker faces. I had such a great read on liars that my ex-girlfriend insisted she talk to me on the phone only because that way it would be harder for me to pick apart the lies in the conversation.

That little blurb is pure brilliance on so many levels. It's good to have you back, Pauly.

Solid Results End--with a resounding THUD

Why is it that whenever I make certain plans to make regular withdrawals from my poker accounts, I have to endure a day like I did yesterday? I cashed out a bunch of extra money (>$700) from my winnings since May 1, then I decided to play yesterday and took some of the worst beats I have ever taken in a single session of poker. Not to whine about bad beats, but these are Hall-of-Fame-quality taken alone, but taken together, that they all occurred in one session is absolutely stupefying:

Remember, these hand segments I'm showing you are from the SAME SESSION:

1) 8d8c vs. QsJc--flop Qc-9c-8s, turn Js (I'm an 86.5% favorite to win here), river Jh--he rivers a bigger boat. He had outs from the flop (4 T's, 2 Q's), and picked up the other two J's as outs on the turn, but flopping a set and losing is frustrating, especially when you 3-bet him on the flop.

2) KsQh vs. QsQd--I really can't complain here, but in this hand, I cold called two bets pre-flop (yes, I know that whenever you cold call, god kills a puppy...), and outflopped him on the K-4-5 flop. He led out and I raised, letting him know EXACTLY where he stood (I was a 91% favorite here). He check-called the 9c turn (and I was a 98% favorite at this point), and of course, spiked his two-outer Q on the river to win.

3) 99 vs. 98s--He was UTG, limped and called my MP raise (because, you know, somebody who plays 14/9/3.5 raises with garbage in MP). He flopped a pair of 8's on the A-8-T flop, and I knew he didn't have an Ace. I led out (representing the ace), and he called. I'm an 86% favorite to win here, and he, of course, spikes another two outer (same guy as in #2 above) to win the hand with trip 8's.

4) TT vs. AJo--I open raise with TT, and my opponent calls with AJ from MP. Flop is K-T-3 rainbow (despite his gutshot draw, I'm 86% to win here). I lead out on the turn with the 5s. This makes me a 91% favorite. The Q hits the river, I lead, he raises, and I make the crying call to see his rivered straight.

We're not done here yet--this one may be the most brutal yet...

5) AA vs. AJs--I open raise in MP2, and the player in the CO calls with AJs. This is the same player as in the last three hands. I lead out on the 2-8-6 rainbow flop. I'm a 95% favorite to win on the flop. He calls. The turn brings the 7c. I lead, he calls, he IMPROVES to only a 4-to-1 underdog. The river completes the flush. I led out, he raised me for the last $6 in front of me, and I called to see his friggin' runner-runner flush.

Unbelievable--and if you were wondering about a cashout curse...

So, I decide to drop back down to 3/6, after being down $247, thinking maybe it will help. Think again:

1) QJo vs. AKo vs. T9o--First off, UTG had AK and LIMPED it. UTG+1 had the T9o and LIMPED IT. 6 players saw the Q-J-7 flop. Yahtzee. I'm a 59-28-13 favorite here. Mr. T9 bets, and I raise--correctly. Only two fold, so four players see the turn of 3c. Now I'm a 76-17-7 favorite. River card? You guessed it, the Kd. Another crying call to see his straight.

A couple more 3-to-1 favorite beats, some tilty hands, and I end the day down $347 at Stars. I even lost $23 playing PLO8 when my turned full house lost to a higher rivered full house (yes, I pot out the turn)...

Bad days like these make me wonder. Is it something in my own makeup that I want to make money that forces me to push more than usual and make incorrect decisions? I think you'd be hard pressed to find more correct decisions than those listed above. Maybe I could've saved a bet or two, but when cards are stacked against you like that, combined with the fact that no matter how much you bet-bet-bet or raise-raise-raise, these calling stations (yes, all of these players had Aggression Factors of 0.8 or less) just won't fold, I think I was "destined" to lose that money regardless of what I do. The AA vs. AJ hand was just brutal, and it seemed as though no matter what I would do, someone would catch a miracle card on me. I know it happens. I've been playing long enough and I'm smart enough to know that not only does it happen, but we, as profitable players NEED it to happen. The fish and other idiots are how we derive our income. But damnit, it's just really frustrating when the beats come like this.

Back to the drawing board. No poker tonight, as work beckons, plus it's good that I'll have a chance to clear my head of all the bad thoughts that yesterday put in there. I just ordered "Zen and the Art of Poker," and maybe that book will supply some answers as well as some ideas about playing tilt-free poker. We can all learn a little of that.

Turning a Corner in My Poker Career

First off, I'd like to thank everyone in the community for all their well wishes for the birth of my daughter, and for all their advice about fitting poker into a life at home with a baby. I'd also like to say that you were ALL right.

Having a baby is one of the most rewarding things, and at the same time, one of the most frustrating things a person can ever go through. With that being said, the love you feel for that little one is something that can't be described, matched, or replaced. It's also something that really "interferes" with the course of a conventional poker career.

So what I decided to do is start a project with my poker playing:

I'm playing Limit Holdem at PokerStars (3/6 and 5/10), and Pot-Limit Omaha 8-or better at Full Tilt ($50). I'm starting with 200 BB in the 5/10 game at Stars, and 8 buy-ins in the $50 PL game at Full Tilt. Whatever I make weekly above and beyond that, I'm cashing out weekly on Sunday. I'm taking that money and putting half of it away for my daughter, and investing the other half for our family. So far, I've done pretty damn well. I started in earnest May 1, without even calling it "my project." But due to the miracle of PokerTracker, I've been able to keep pretty good track of my winnings.

I've gotten a great deal out of poker in the last two years, and now, my family's going to benefit from poker at least as much as I have.

It's Been a While

I haven't posted in quite some time, partially because:

1) I don't really have a ton to say--quality before quantity, I always say.

2) With Alexis around, I really haven't had a lot of time to write anything.

With that being said, I've started playing PLO8 at Full Tilt, the $50's, and I've really done exceptionally well, up 4+ buy-ins within a week, and that's only playing a few hours. That goes along with still playing the 3/6 and 5/10 at Stars, so let's just say I've been making some money since my beautiful daughter came along. It's really good, too, since that money's going straight to her college fund.

All those players that have unwillingly contributed to the Baby Shark's college fund--thank you.

That's all for today--I'll be back updating soon! Best of luck to all!