Live Blogging the WWdN Thursday Special!!

Decided to play with the bloggers in the latest WWdN Tourney:

11:41 pm (T2000, 9th place): I love folding. Folding is so good, especially when you're getting dealt crap.

11:42 pm (T2000): K5s. Great.

11:44 pm (T1980): 74o. Whoopie.

11:46 pm (T1980): AA. Shit. Everybody's folding. If you get AA and nobody calls, does anybody give a damn? One caller, whoopie. Small pot is better than nothing.

11:50 pm (T2260): Why do I call raises with A4s?

11:56 pm (T2065): Folding is so much fun...

11:59 pm (T2065): L0K1 just bluffed with the hammer and hit. I dumped AT pre-flop to the raise and the flop, predictably, came 3-A-3. Damnit.

12:01 am (T2065): AKs on a A-high flop=big win. Up to T3340 and 4th place for me...

12:07 am (T3340): Stole blinds with KJs

12:08 am (T3340): Pastamancer cracked my QQ with 88 on an 8-high flop. He led into me and I put him all in--when he flopped top set. Brilliant play by me...not.

12:10 am (T1902): Moved to another table. Picked up 66 and dumped it on a K-high flop. Don't know anybody here. Glancing over at the leaderboard, Waffles is in 4th, Wes (boobie lover) is in 8th. Bloggers represent.

12:14 am (T1677): KK--on an all diamond flop. I push, opponent (jg-2323) folds. Back in business.

12:15 am (T2152): My wife thinks it's funny to tickle me while I play...

12:17 am (T2152): Just got moved to Waffles' table. Uh oh.

12:22 am (T2002): Folding again, so much fun.

12:27 am (T1652): Called the BB's raise with QT, flop came A-T-x. Thought about a raise, dumped it. SB showed AQ. Good fold.

12:28 am (T1552): Limped with 44, folded on a K-high flop, with three overcards to my shitty pair.

12:29 am (T1552): Stole blinds with 77.

Break time. I hear that Wil is still in at Commerce, and holding his own in 20th or so place. Go, dude. Meanwhile, I'm in 17th place of 22 at the break. Joanne, April, and Wes are out. Waffle's in 9th place, Iggy is in 16th place. Not sure about the others--don't know all the screen names.

12:36 am (T1777): Stole blinds with the Hammer. I get NO reaction.

12:38 am (T1277): Had JJ cracked by QJ with a Q on the flop. Grrr. Just folded 66 to an all-in that would've rivered a straight. No thank you. 16th place out of 19, and I don't think I've played poorly.

12:42 am (T102): Just had my QK and pair of Q's cracked by an ace on the river. This game can suck sometimes. Now all in with 88. Cracked by T3o. Fantastic. Oh well, out in 19th place. Good luck all.

The "Back to the Tables" Update

At the expense of jinxing myself, I've been running phenomenally well at the 3/6 games on Stars. Well enough that I feel like I should stay here longer than I expected. I'm playing the style of poker that made me successful for so long last year:

Over 1931 hands, I had a VP$IP of 15.95%, PFR of 9.17%, and an aggression factor of 3.41. I've won an obnoxious number of 5.87 BB/100 hands for a total win of $708.25. My win rate currently is even higher than it was last year. I can't even speak for what I'm doing so differently, but all I know is that I'm winning at a great rate.

All this in preparation for another trip to Atlantic City. All I can hope for is for the winning ways to continue there.

Are You Using PokerAce HUD?

Well damnit, you should (at least if you want to make money). And if you're not already using PokerTracker, please look for me online and sit at my table. I could use a new monitor, and you could just be the generous soul that buys it for me...

Kuso over at Bet the Pot (IMHO the best poker forum on the internet) told me about two stats that PokerAce HUD calculates for you based on the traditional PokerTracker numbers. This awesome program that brought you things like Aggression Frequency and the like now bring you...

Won at Showdown When Raising Turn/River (W$SDwRT/R)

It's configurable in the pop-up stats portion of the program (see Josh's excellent tutorial for more info on the stats) or as a permanent HUD stat. I use a very minimalist or GT+ reminiscent HUD display, leaving only VP$IP, PFR, and AF-Total visible. My pop up stats, which make the whole thing less busy and intimidating by staying hidden until I want them, paint the rest of the picture. Let's set the scene:

I'm in the BB, and I look down at 96s in diamonds. We get a single limper and the LAG cutoff player raises. Um, no sir, you DON'T steal MY blind. The button calls, I call, and the limper calls, so 4 of us see a flop of Qh,9c,6s.

I love the rainbow, and with even bottom two pair, I'm WAY ahead here, but my hand is fragile. If anyone has a queen, they have outs to beat me, but they can't possibly see this coming. I check, and our original raiser leads out, and the trap is sprung. I check-raise him, and the button and the UTG limper both fold, so him and I go to the turn. The turn is the Kh, and I lead out. He raises me back. Hmmm. What am I drawing behind here? Could he have KK and I'm screwed? No--he would've 3-bet the flop. Does he have KQ? Possibly. Maybe he had AK and thought he just trumped my top pair.

That's where this stat comes in. With W$SD when Raising Turn (or River) is in your set of stats or pop-up, you can examine what this guy does with his turn raises. Is he protecting a fragile hand? Is he trying to value bet a flush draw? This stat can tell you, and may be one hell of a way of weeding out the weak/tight-tending players. If his number for this stat is >75-80%, he's raising generally with the best hand. If it's <50%, he's bluff raising, semi-bluff raising or protecting a draw enough to know that you can call this raise. The only problem I see with this stat is that it's not the most reliable when the player has fewer than say, 500 hands (or preferably even more) in your database.

I went into check-call mode, calling the turn raise, and I check called the river, the 7s, and he turned over Qs, Ks for the better two pair and the win.

I didn't have the stat turned on in my popup stats, and the read I had on him was that he had either AK, or Kx or hearts. My read was wrong, but I believe that having the stat available could have made the difference and maybe saved me a bet or two. In this case, it might not have helped because a concealed two pair is a relative monster in LHE, and I don't think that laying it down here is +EV. Even IF he has KQ, I still have 4 outs to fill up (not that it's really a possibility). The only way you're drawing truly dead here is if he has KK or QQ.

When you're configuring your HUD, just keep this information in mind. The turn, with it's doubled bet, seperates the men from the boys, and the information you gain by using this stat may make the difference between you winning bets, losing bets, or saving bets.

Remember, folks, Limit Holdem is a game of information, and the more information you have, the better prepared you are to make the correct decisions--and make money.

Thanks again to Kuso for bringing this to my attention!

Moving Right Along

Today I caught the first cold deck I've had since I returned to LHE, and I won 2 showdowns in 117 hands this morning. Ick. That's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Three negative sessions in a row, 183 hands, -$207.00. Like I said, it happens, and while I'm not pissed like I would be normally, if I'd say it doesn't bother me or concern me, I'd be lying my ass off.

Overall, like I said, I'm not worried, but I think I'm glad I work the evening shift tonight...

That's it, no content. Maybe a strategy post tonight or tomorrow.

MID-DAY edit: Went back to another mini-session before I left the house. Yes, I am a gambooling addict. Anyhoo, cracked the table for $120 in about half an hour. Had a guy (hopefully on tilt) decide that I had raised pre-flop too many times, so he decided to three-bet me and call my cap pre-flop and cap it on the flop (Q-5-T rainbow) before he slowed down and called me down with his 85o. Shame for him I had QQ, eh? More of a shame that an offsuit T came on the turn and he was drawing dead...Yep, and he was still calling...

I will send out a strategy post, hopefully tonight, about a stat that I didn't know was in PokerAce HUD until a pretty damn smart guy over at BTP told me about it. I added it immediately, and when I'm done with you, all you LHE players will add it too.

Until later.

I'm Back....

That's what a friggin blizzard will do for you. In all reality, I made the comeback on Thursday night, playing some PLO--I won about $100 playing an uber-LAG style, then lost it all back. Oh, well. Bigger news for me is a return to PokerStars and my specialty, Limit Holdem. I've ground out some nice (albeit small) wins playing a couple short sessions. Tonight, I lost a couple hands where my AQ flopped TPTK and my opponent slowplayed KK masterfully and my JJ got outflopped and I couldn't let it go. That's attributable to some rust, methinks. I haven't really played LHE other than live (if you don't count the bonus chasing crap at the Cryptos) since November, so I suppose it's forgivable.

Now, what about the future? At the expense of sounding like a GA meeting gone amuck, I'm taking things one day at a time. I really get concerned with the long run, and whether playing poker recreationally, semi-pro, or whatever the hell you call what I'm doing is +EV in the long run. I'm going to be a father in 10 weeks or so, and many more important things are going to be taking up my time, and if there's one thing that I'm totally willing to sacrifice to get there, it's poker. I guess the problem for me is that I know I'm a good player, and that I'm passing up opportunities to make some decent side money, but in that sense, what is poker doing for me, other than providing me with an obsession/addiction to take up time that I will need to spend on my daughter?

When I first made the decision in October to begin referring to myself as semi-pro, I had started the discussion off both here and over at Bet-the-Pot's forums by asking, "What is my desired endpoint with poker?" Do I want to become a pro? No. The variance alone would put me in the booby hatch. Do I want to continuously move up? No, because eventually, I'd be playing 30/60 with $2000 in front of me, and my wife would either a) leave me, or b) have me committed. It makes her cringe to see me play 5/10 with $200 in front of me. Just glad she never watched me play 15/30. I just want it to be a profitable hobby. The question I have is basically when does a hobby begin to border on obsession? I never envisioned myself playing 5/10 or higher, or playing 10 hours a week or more. I know that's nothing compared to many of you out there, but for me, that's a great deal. Part of my deal with the wife about playing online poker was that I wouldn't let get to the point where it started to control me. I didn't play for a week plus, and it felt good, but something drew me back to the virtual felt. I'd like to think it's my competitive spirit, but part of me wonders if it's addiction or obsession, neither of which is very good.

Anyway, like I said, for now it's just one day at a time, and I'll see you at the tables!

Five Days In...

...to my self-imposed poker break, and it feels really good, actually. I haven't even had the desire to play, except when I saw the information about DADIII:

...but I don't think I'm going to play in that either. I'm reading Harrington on Holdem Volume 2, and re-reading Small Stakes Holdem, and I hope to return with a nice, clear mind. Clear of all the bad luck, clear of all the beats, clear of all the donkeydom, and with a totally fresh start. This is therapeutic for me, and it's funny, but this might actually be the longest I've gone without playing poker other than the wedding/honeymoon period.

It actually feels good.

But don't worry, I'll be back before you know it. I'll just be back when I'm ready.

Wil Wheaton's Running Bad, Too...

Was perusing on Bloglines today, and what do I see, but Wil Wheaton's blog. And to be honest, he's really the first big-name guy to say that he's been running especially shitty. And yes, I know that other bloggers have joined the chorus, but it's somewhat therapeutic to see a big guy whining about the bad beats and Monsters Under the Bed too...

After suffering yet another SNG loss last night, I went over my log book. I wasn't surprised to discover that, since November of last year, I'm deeply in the red. In fact, "deeply" doesn't begin to describe it. "Dangerously" is more like it.

I examined my plays, reviewed my histories and fliped through the books and blog posts that have helped me get control over, and gain confidence in my game. I came to the conclusion that, yes, I don't suck at poker. I also came to the conclusion that, yes, we want bad players to make bad calls, but I'm also losing more money from bad players who are suckng out on me than I win when they miss. Other than winning an FPP satellite for the $750 Guarantee at PokerStars last month, I am a total loser right now. Have you ever felt like a total loser? Have you ever felt like the flop of life just keeps on missing you, and that your draws never get there? That's me, man, and it sucks.

I used to say that acting is like tournament poker: you have to outlast a huge field to get close to the money, and once you get that close, you have to get incredibly lucky to survive the bubble. It doesn't matter how good you are, it doesn't matter how well you play, if you make one mistake, or take one bad beat, you can be out. At least in tournament poker, more than one person makes the money. Poker is an incredible metaphor for all sorts of things in life, and right now it's a perfect metaphor for so many things in my life, it's scary, and the auditions are the least of it. I'm sick and tired of losing, but more importantly, I'm sick and tired of feeling like a loser, in too many ways to count.When I get all the money in as a dominating favorite (AK vs. AQ, JJ vs TT, or my personal favorite KK vs T6o. Nice hand sir, good call) I am a consistent loser. More often than not, I've found myself blowing up at my computer, walking around my block to settle down, and wondering the whole time why I even bothered to put the time and effort into learning how to play, when all of my apparently "correct" decisions continue to fail to pay off. I fold Q6o to a raise and a re-raise? Of course the flop comes A66. I fold 55 to a raise and a push? Of course the raiser has AT, the pusher has 33, and there's a 5 on the flop. I push on a king-high flop with aces, you know the guy with KJ is calling me, so he can turn a jack and bust me. Every. Single. Fucking. TIme. I know that I should be happy with making correct plays, based upon incomplete information. Well, last time I checked, you couldn't buy into games with happy points, and you can't cash them out, either.

Yes, I know that these idiots should be EV for us, but I can't afford to keep giving them the chance. My bankroll has dropped by almost 75% since this seemingly never-ending slide began, and while I'll eventually be able to get that money back one way or another, something even more serious is weighing on my game: I'm starting to hate poker because it isn't fun. I know we tell our kids that playing games should be done for the fun of playing, and that winning isn't all that important, but let's be honest: if you lost every single game you played in, and it was costing you money every time, wouldn't you want to spend your money on something that at least made you happy? I'll continue to host and play in the WWdN weekly tourneys at PokerStars, because the social interaction with people who I consider kindred spirits and friends is completely worth the buy-in, but I'm walking away from everything else, for at least the near future. I'm going to read (non-poker) books, and play some regular games, like Talisman and Dungeon with my kids. I'm going to walk my dogs, train for the San Diego Marathon, and finish my next book. I may even get around to redesigning and repairing my blog.

Great stuff, Wil, and I'm right there with you. I don't know if I have the intestinal fortitude to take an extended break from the game, but here's to at least a while away from playing the game I hate to love...Expect strategy-type posts, but I think I need a couple weeks off from playing to clear my head of all the negativity.

Like Wil, I know I don't suck at this game. Between the run of second-best hands I've had and the suckouts, I just know that I'm losing money by not playing poorly. I'm starting to lose money by playing afraid. That's a bad way to be. So, I'm going to recharge and re-learn by teaching for a while. You know the line: Those who can, do, and those who can't, teach... As someone who has taught (and still does occasionally for different projects), I find that offensive, but you know what? Right now, I just can't.

Monsters Under the Bed, Part Deux...

Dropped a buy-in at the $50 NL today--how I did it is stupefying. I lost the buy-in with 3 hands. Watch the carnage and see why I get nervous about the old MutB...

Hand 1: KJs on the button. I raise to $2, flop is K-J-2. I lead out for a half-pot bet. UTG opponent calls. Turn brings an ace. I lead for the pot, he pushes his remaining $12 into the pot, I insta-call, and he shows me 22. My two pair is no goot.

Hand 2: QQ in EP. I raise to $2 (my standard pre-flop raise), and get only the button to call. Flop is 4-A-Q. I lead out for half the pot, he pushes his stack all-in and shows me AA. My set of Q's no goot.

Hand 3: KK in MP1. I raise to $2 with only $6 in front of me, get re-raised all-in by the button, call and he shows me AA. My KK no goot.

Yes, Virginia, there are monsters under the bed sometimes.