Getting My Money's Worth from Poker Tracker

I was inspired by a post by Betting For Value talking about problem hands, so I decided to data mine and see which hands cost me the most money when I play them (VP$IP>50). I don't want hands that I'm in the blinds or just unlucky with, I want hands that I overplay and lose:

1) K9s (VP$IP 75.00, -2.63 BB/hand):
Wow, what a leak. Dealt it 8 times, in the blinds once, and I even cold called a pre-flop raise with it. What the hell was I thinking?

2) 88 (VP$IP: 100.00, -1.50 BB/hand).
I did tend to fall in love with small pairs before. Now, I'll play them, see if they hit trips, and toss them away if they don't.

3) T9s (VP$IP: 50.00, -1.36 BB/hand):
I've always been skeptical of playing suited connectors, mainly because first, with low suited connectors, if you hit a flush, you could easily be beaten by a bigger flush. Same for a straight. I'm not a fan of suited connectors, but I've obviously been playing the high ones, and losing. Looking at the hand histories, I've been chasing with them and tossing them away mostly. Poor play.

4) A6s (VP$IP: 91.67, -0.95 BB/hand):
Another known leak in my game, probably has to do with my missing flushes so damn much. I love A-rag suited. My problem is that I fall head over heels for it, and don't get away from it when I don't hit it. Did you know that Ace-rag that flops a 3-flush is a 4-to-1 underdog against even a small pair, and that three-way it is even dominated vs. 77 and KQo, almost 2-to-1 against winning? It's all about live cards. Without the big card behind the ace, any pocket pair over that kicker/rag has you dominated with 3 outs or needing a runner-runner? Bad odds, folks. Real bad odds.

5) JJ (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.90 BB/hand):
Glancing through hand histories, what I learned is that this hand is a loser for two reasons. Either it's dominated from the start (JJ v. QQ or KK or AA), or somebody draws out on me despite a raise. I've raised with this 90% of the time (18 of 20 times) its been dealt to me. I was called and beaten by 86s, AQo, QQ, A5o, QQ, K9s, ATs, Q2s, 87o, A7o, and AA. Maybe 5 of those hands had no business even seeing the flop. Three had me dominated, ATs and AQo are races. Just a bad hand, I suppose, until I see:

6) TT (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.89 BB/hand):
Same idea, I suppose. Raises on 14 of 18 hands (77.78%). I ran into AA, 86o, JJ, AJo, AQo, T9o, JJ, J2s, and A7s. Mostly I just ran into bigger hands. TT is a hand that should be raised pre-flop. If it's already been raised to you, you may play it like a small pair (look for trips then get out), or re-raise from LP with caution. It can be easily dominated, so be careful.

7) AJs (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.80 BB/hand):
19 pre-flop raises in 20 occurrences, and overall, I win with it more than I lose (11 win, 9 lose). The losses are big, though. Lost with it to AQo, JJ, KTo, Q2s, and 55 (with trips on the turn that made his full house). It seemed like people would respect the raise more often, the raise serving as a blind-stealer 6 times. The thing to remember with AJs is that it is just a drawing hand, and seldom wins unimproved. It's real tempting to play this back at the fish, but it should be played cheaply if possible until you nail something, or if you feel a bet will drive the opponent out of the pot.

8) ATs (VP$IP: 83.33, -0.55 BB/hand):
See #7 above. Lost to 33, 65o, 66, A5o, AQo, 66, KK, and J5o, Either it's dominated from the get-go, or it's drawn out on. Notice the three small pairs--it just goes to show you that even AKs vs. small pair is a pure coin flip, and the small pair can easily be favored over a drawing hand like Big Slick or Ace-Big suited.

9) A2s (VP$IP: 100.00, -0.54 BB/hand):
What the hell am I playing? O8B? I called a raise with this? I actually raised with it once? From the SB? Sheesh. Another Ace-rag suited example. I need to get away from these hands It's amazing, though. In every hand I lost with, I never had more than a 3-flush off the flop. Ace-rag, as all of you know, is easily dominated by a hand with a bigger kicker, and it's raison d'etre is the flush. No flush, get out. Even if you pair your ace, proceed with caution.

10) 77 (VP$IP: 81.48, 0.53 BB/hand):
It's that smaller pair thing. Mostly losing to bigger pairs. The thing I noticed though is that I seem to be more willing to throw this away when it doesn't hit. See the flop cheap, play it fast if it hits, throw it away if it doesn't.
.
The next biggies that cost me money are ATo (VP$IP: 77.78, -0.50 BB/hand), A4s, A9o, KJo, 22, 55, and QTs. These are all trouble hands, whether small pairs, offsuit paint, or marginal hands like QTs and Ace-rag.

Not surprisingly, my biggest winners are AA, KK, A8s, AKs, QJs, 99, JTs, and KQs.

Wait, isn't that A8s? Consider this. In the above example, we played first against 77, then against 77 and KQo. You go from a 4-to-1 underdog to only a 2.5-to-1 dog, with two live cards. Three-way, you go from a monster dog to being only a 1.62-to-1 dog to win. In the above example, you have 3 outs and runner-runner (about 1.5 outs per Abdul) for about 4.5 outs. With A8s, you have 6 outs plus runner-runner, and no turn card other than an unsuited 7 and maybe a K or a Q leaves you truly dominated or drawing dead. A suited K or Q leaves you 12 outs, and only an offsuit 7 leaves you drawing dead.

It's interesting to see exactly why money leaks from my game, and I hope this type of analysis helps you as well.

WPBT Tournament

I railbirded the WPBT tourney last night, and had a blast doing so. The bloggers won again (as is to be expected)--lots of pimpage to gameC for taking down some serious coin. I really wish I could have played, but work committments prevented me from having fun. Being a pharmacist really sucks sometimes.

Y'all must be good luck, though, because I decided to play some 0.50/1 Limit while sweating Iggy(who finished 4th for a nice payday, by the way), and I took it down for $36.25. I played for 3 hours, and doubled up playing Limit. Maybe it was the aggressive vibe at those last few tables, maybe it was the professional railbird, but I cleaned them up. Oh, and I cashed in an O8B SnG too. Much respect to all the bloggers, readers, and railbirds, because you are all witty, fun people, and apparently, some of you can really play some serious-ass poker.

Hope everyone had a great time--I sure did...

Mad Props and More Limit Strategy

First of all, HUGE props and congratulations to DoubleAs, finally breaking through and winning his seat to the WPT in Aruba. The utmost in congratulations, man, and it doesn't hurt too much that Aruba is my favorite place on this planet. A great reward for a great NL Holdem player and teacher. Congrats again!

Second, I know Felicia's in Phoenix right now, and I'm sending a ton of positive thoughts and wishes her way.

Third, remember that the WPBT event is tonight at 9 PM at PokerStars, it's a $20+2 NLHE tourney. You'll find it under the Tournament Tab, then under Private. Password is "the hammer." I can't play (besides the fact that it would be almost 20% of my remaining bankroll) because I won't be leaving work until 9 PM tonight :-(. Next time, folks.

Limit Pre-Flop Strategy

You know, HDouble continues to refer to a former-RGP'er named Abdul Jalib. This guy honestly has put out some of the best limit strategy info out there, Sklansky, et al included. Abdul used to post to a website, Positive EV (www.posev.com), which to my knowledge isn't active anymore, but thanks to HDub (and Google Groups), we still have some of his essays on limit holdem, and they're honestly some of the best writing I've seen on limit anywhere.

He suggests things like limp/raising with monster pre-flop hands like AA, based upon EV alone. AA has an EV of almost 4 times the BB, so if you raise with it and steal the blinds, you have theoretically cost yourself winnings. His evaluation also takes into account the fact that having someone draw out on you with a monster like AA or KK will happen infrequently enough that it becomes a profitable play to allow someone in pre-flop, then play your hand fast post-flop. He also mentions that if someone raises your limp, you should immediately re-raise, having the effect of a check-raise. A quote,

Without other concerns, in a tight game, you should raise with marginal hands, and limp (and re-raise if raised) with your strongest hands. This contradicts Sklansky and Malmuth. Balance your hands that you could have in various pre-flop scenarios, mixing strong with weak, and weak with strong, so that you do not give too much information away by your actions, yet strive to still play most hands appropriately.

This is profound advice, and he's right. He completely contradicts what Sklansky and Malmuth have been teaching as ABC poker. But if you think about it, Abdul's right on the button. Think. Consider pre-flop play. If you're at a 2/4 table, and you open with a raise, even in LP, it will only take limpers another SB to call you. You only need to play 1/2 and 2/4 online for 5 minutes to see this in action. Tighter players with marginal hands will toss them to a raise. Looser players with worse hands may call, but simply stealing the blinds with AA sucks. In tighter games, it is not long-term profitable to raise with AA. Limp/re-raise is much better, and though you may get sucked out on, the additional profit you realize from having a more multi-way pot will likely make up any suck-out losses you may take. After all, 5 players will create a bigger pot than 2, right? The major caveat is that if you decide to do that, you will need to play very well post-flop, not giving free cards, taking them when they're given, and by blasting people out who are desperately trying to draw on you. It is both the curse, and the challenge of Limit Hold'em. How much of a bet will make you toss that hand away?

I don't advocate for Abdul's advice alone, nor do I advocate for Miller, Sklansky, and Malmuth. It's just a different perspective from a successful player.

Rough Plays

I had my rough share of rough plays in the last couple of days, as I had mentioned. I made a lot of second-best hands, and there is no worse hand in poker than the second-best hand. I played PL O8B last night, turned a boat with deuces full of kings (with 2-2-K on board), bet the pot (about $14), got called, watched an ace hit the river, and then watched my opponent call my all-in bet as he had the case 2, and an ace to boot. It's been really rough, and I can see what THG is going through, because I seem to be attracted to second-best hands lately. I bet out with flushes, get called, then someone makes their boat on the river. I've taken yet another bankroll hit, and it's frustrating. I know I'm a solid player. Live game results, and prior online results tell me that. The only thing I keep thinking is that this damn online poker thing is actually a lot harder than most give it credit for. If you're a consistent winner online, congratulations! Domenic cashed out $1000 from Stars, then got pounded by the cashout curse. Welcome to my world. I'm at the point right now where I have almost no idea how anyone can be a consistent winner against the caliber of players online without a little luck (and of course, not calling that last bet). Seriously though, on the O8B hand, would you lay down the nut full house? Would you suspect that the player would call your bet with just trip 2's? I led out, he called and had the nuts. To make it worse, it was on PARTY! I threw $50 on Party last night, played some $25 NLHE, blew that in literally 20 minutes. Hopped on to an O8B table, gone in 20 minutes too. Party is really fishy. The only thing worse than losing to fish is losing to fish when they hit their hands. I lost a TON of money relative to my bankroll last night. My Stars account is down to $126.75, and Party is empty. It's almost at the crisis point where I'm willing to give it up.

Is it that people are really right, that I shouldn't be playing scared online? I'm at that point. I'm playing frightened. Live, like at the casino, I am anything but scared. Live tourney, anything but scared. It feels like I'm playing with 4 Gus Hansens and 5 Daniel Negreanus. I get dealt QQ, flop trips, play them fast and hard, get to the river, and find that my opponent sucked out a straight with 85o just calling all the way. That's actually in the back of my mind. Nothing is more useless than a frightened poker player, and that's what I am right now.

It's just so damn hard to let go of a game that you are obsessed with love, even when the tilt monster rears its ugly head. It seems lately that the more I keep repeating my mantra that a tight aggressive player will win out in the long run, the more I keep losing. Have I degraded to weak-tight out of fear of bad beats? Obviously not, since I got blasted half way to California by second-best hands... It's just something I need to work through, and it makes me pose a question:

I've asked before about how people deal with running card-dead. The answer is actually simple, and involves a little bit of Zen--patience. My question now is two fold: Have all of you experienced significant downturns in your bankroll? And, of course, how did you deal with it? I know everyone has probably busted out at one time or another. It just seems for me that I've had short bursts of incredible winning, followed by longer downturns where I give it all back. That scares me, because that's the hallmark of a fish, a truly lucky player. I want to always be known as the player who wins based on skill, with a little bit of luck. I've never considered myself a fish. Is it the exaggerated self-image that authors point out that all poker players seem to have at one point or another? Am I a fish? More to the point, is it possible to be a fish with an overall Holdem win rate of 3 BB/100 hands, a 21.10% VP$IP, and a total aggression factor of over 2?

Losing self-confidence is a real bitch.

Update

Got a clean bill from the oncologist yesterday. Very positive thing. I'm sending lots of positive vibe your way, Felicia! Many hugs...

On the poker front, I'm going to shut down again for a while, at least online. Tired of flushes running into river-made boats, straights running into river made flushes, and me holding 4-nut-flush draws and never making them. I even switched games, playing O8B. Had flopped boats beaten by bigger boats despite pot-sized bets in every case. Even more tired of seeing A2A3 double suited, raising it, and seeing NOTHING on the flop. Got A2A4 double suited, all red. Flop? All black. It's happening all the time now. I even went to the play chip tables, and I can't even tolerate that anymore. Every hand is all-in pre-flop. It's not even worth playing for practice. I need to play 1/2 NL in Atlantic City. Naah, screw that. I need to play 5/10 NL in Atlantic City. I need to have a big stack in front of me, and just blow people off the table. 2/4 limit online? Raises get no respect. Live, you just watch people fold (most of the time).

I'm on too much of a positive vibe to have online poker ruin it for me. I'm just going to continue reading, continue studying, continue writing. and wait for the tournament next Saturday.

Watched Poker Superstars yesterday. Heard David Sklansky say the following gem:

I can't help it. When I sit at a table, any table, I just know I'm better than 90% of my opponents. Even here. They just don't think the game as intelligently as I do.

Mind you, he's playing against people like Cloutier, Mike Sexton, Carlos Mortensen, et al. The hilarious part is that Fox Sports Net aired that little side vignette, and two hands later, Sklansky was eliminated--by Cyndy Violette.

Now I'm sure Sklansky is a nice guy, and we all know he's damn smart. But he came off like a boorish jackass. An arrogant, boorish jackass. Maybe it's a case of Josh Arieh-esque editing, but he just came off really poorly. I have no problem with confidence. When I sit at a 2/4 or 3/6, I feel the same way. He's among the legends of the game. Even from a guy like Sklansky, a little respect would be nice. It's one thing to taunt the fish, you don't taunt bracelet winners. Especially when you haven't won one in 23 years, and especially when he says--

Most players specialize in one game or another. I'm an expert in ALL games.

Keep in mind, his best finish in a NLHE tournament was a $20K win in the 2002 WSOP main event (42nd place).

Like I said, David is one of the greatest poker minds in the world today. He doesn't need to fear anyone at the table. A little respect, though, never hurt.

Tropicana Trip Report

Wow! What the hell did they do to that place? There's a new section called "The Quarter..." Stores, restaurants, clubs--they've made that a first class hotel/casino! It's almost overwhelming how damn nice (and crowded) it was. Many props. All they need to do is drop the rebuy/addon on their tournaments, and I'll play there exclusively!

Anyway, got there at about 9:15 to find a good sized list for all the holdem games except for the 8/16. I put my name on the list for 2/4, 3/6, and 4/8, figuring I'd take the first available, since we had tickets to the 11:15 Comedy Stop show. A quick stop to the cashier, a quick wave goodbye to Mrs. PokerShark and her friend Gina, and *poof* I get called for 2/4. Great. While I'm waiting, I meet a guy, late-50's, early-60's, who is giving the floor manager a bunch of lip, saying, "I bet if I walk this floor, I'll find my own damn seat before you do..." Just a real asshole.

So, I get to my table just in time to post the BB, and I realize within the first orbit a couple things:

1) This table is WAY passive.
2) TPTK--it's goot here.
3) Even though the table is passive, it's just filled with calling stations.

First orbit is uneventful--took down a pot with KTs, flopped tens on the flop, river paired the 5, I cautiously played it and won with tens up. Second orbit, a player gets up to leave and who takes his spot? The asshole! I don't say anything, I just watch. This guy is probably a fit for the maniac description. Raises with junk, calls it all to the river, tosses it if it's unplayable. I look down and see Paris and Nicky. "Raise 'em up..." I say, get 5 callers. Table image, FYI, is tight. Squeaky, squeaky tight. Flop is rags with 2 spades. EP player bets, I raise, down to 3 callers. Turn card is a brick. Rinse-repeat, EP player bets, I raise. Now we're heads up. River brings the 3rd spade. He bets, I raise. He re-raises and I know I'm screwed, but I have to call with these odds. He turns over JTs for the jack-high flush to crack my QQ. Oh well. I learned on that hand though.

A few hands later UTG I look down to see AK. Slick! My bud! I raise to $4, Get 4 callers. Flop is K-T-rag. I bet, get raised by the aforementioned asshole? I call. Turn card is a 5. I bet, he calls. I'm wondering now... He's raised before, and folded on the next street (hoping for a free card and not getting it). RIver is a blank. I bet, he calls. I turn over TPTK, call out "Kings..." He turns over T5o for tens up. Ok. I'm good. Then, this asshole starts to mock me at the table! "Aww, good tight player loses with Big Slick...Go read a few more books..." I'm shocked. Even assuming that this guy was an asshole from my first impression, he's being a real dick over a $30-something pot. Half the table wants his head already, and this doesn't win him any friends. I would just have assumed that an older "gentleman" wouldn't be such a boorish asshole. I assumed wrong.

I take a small pot here, lose one there until I get A2s on the button. I limp, and see two beautiful spades on the flop (Qs-9h-4s, IIRC). With 6 callers, it comes to me having been raised by a LP player. I call, and 5 players see the turn, including "asshole man." The turn card is the even more beautiful Js. It is checked to me, where I bet $4. It is then folded around to asshole man UTG + 1 who raises. I re-raise him, and he caps. I call, river is a 6. He bets, I raise, he calls, jumps out of his seat and says, "Straight to the king!" I look at him, seated calmly as ever, and say, "Nice hand sir. It's just a shame I turned the nut flush." The table exploded, craps-table style, in cheers. He throws his cards at the dealer, grabs his chips and attempts to jump on a 4/8 table, crying and bitching about how "kids ruin poker," and "raises get no respect here." I almost fell off my chair when the floor director told him to return to his original table, just as his reserved button hit the dealer's tray and they called the next 2/4 player on the list. Nice big pot. Left me up for the night $16 (4BB) in a little more than an hour. I finished the orbit, left and met the girls at the Comedy Stop. Good comedy, good poker, and damn, where did the time go? By the time I look, it's 2 AM, and we're on the expressway headed home. Easter (and the other holidays) bring family visits, and today will be a long day. We're visiting my parents in Philadelphia, then eating with Mrs. PokerShark's parents in Cherry Hill, NJ, then enjoying our Easter night at home in the magnificent quiet.

Happy Easter, folks!

Exactly...

Was reading from The Commish's Desk, and yeah, he's exactly right...



Carrie Underwood is absolutely adorable. I may actually keep start watching American Idol. From what I heard on the show, she's got some real talent to go along with it. Don't tell Mrs. PokerShark, but I've always had a soft spot for songbirds. When I was in high school, one of our cute songbirds (starred in school show, etc) decided it would be cool to sing for me, and I spent three years in a stupor.

Is My Blog Schizophrenic?

In the last few weeks, I've written strategy posts, posts about women shooting at half-naked burglars, hand histories, and monsters for sale on eBay. Maybe this is a call for help. Maybe I'm posting a myriad of junk as a cry for attention. In my own sick mind, maybe I think if the Blogfather, or Dr. Pauly see this, they'll actually give me a hint of direction in the blogosphere. People do read, not nearly enough for the voyeuristic side of my personality, and that last part in general makes me think about the eternal question...

Why exactly do we all blog??

Mrs. PokerShark asked me that very question this week. I had just tripled-up with the Uber hand... and the first thing that popped into my head is, "Damn--I really need to post about this!" I really wanted to share that with the community and the world in general, just 'cause it was so damn odd. But why? Before October, before I spent a day at work searching the (filtered) Internet at work for sites about my new obsession, poker, I had heard of blogs, mostly in the political arena, but the idea of blogging never even came to me. The first blog I actually read was Maudie's, and I saw all these links on the side to other people's blogs. I discovered the world of Iggy, AlCan'tHang, and Pauly. I read Chris Halverson's blog, and the rest. The blogs became like a daily ritual for me. I discovered Blogger, and realized that, hey, if it was good for everyone else, it would be good for me, too. Work, of course, has learned to filter most Blogspot addresses, and I can only read a select few at work, but I still keep up with most at home.

But I never answered the question---Why do I blog? Is it therapeutic to have an avenue to talk about poker when your significant other doesn't have the level of interest that you have? Is it because I have the aforementioned voyeuristic side? Is it because I like to write? Is it a longing to belong? Is it just because?

Well, here's my answer: D) All of the above.

I want to talk poker. Many of my friends don't play, or at least don't have the level of playing interest that I have (read as: They're Party fish, or They just go to the casino intending to lose.). So, I've turned to the internet and this amazing community that has developed to get my outlet, and even if nobody's listening on a certain day, I can speak my mind whenever I want.

I do have the voyeuristic side. I want comments. I want people to read my blog. I want people to take the (limited) advice I offer. I want people to gawk at the hand histories I post and go, "wow..." I want people to read the odd crap and drivel I post and think that I'm at least partially witty.

I also like to write. It's been an interest since my childhood, and I find that this continues to hone my communication skills.

A longing to belong. Yes, that's me too. I have many friends, more acquaintances, yet it never hurts to have a few more. I like the spirit of fraternity (sorry, ladies, not intentional) that the poker bloggers share. Yes, like any group, poker bloggers fight amongst themselves, but as some have learned (no names), if you piss one of us off, it's a long road back. Commnuity is a phenomenal thing.

And yes, I blog because I can.

My real problem, as detailed in the headline, is that I'm not sure where to take this blog from here. Do I focus on it becoming a strategy/math type thing, or should I leave that to those who are really good at it (like DoubleAs and HDouble)? Do I focus on telling a story, having fun, and entertaining, like April? Or do I shoot for the blogger-Moon and try to balance it all like Iggy, Pauly, and Maudie? I can never write a blog like any of you. That unique personality that all of you have is what makes you all so damn interesting and fun to read.

I guess maybe I answered my own question.

Tropicana AC trip tonight (for real this time), and report coming Monday or Tuesday. Monday is also my appointment with my oncologist. That report will be up Monday or Tuesday as well.

Happy Easter all.

Some Analysis and Number Crunching

The more I look at last night's hand of carnage the more amazed I really am. It may be the only time when AA is a true underdog to win the hand pre-flop:

Hero: As Ac---2.04% Win, 22.33% Lose, 75.63% Tie----EV=0.398
CO: Ad Ah---2.04% Win, 22.33% Lose, 75.63% Tie----EV=0.398
MP: Kc Kd--20.29% Win, 79.29% Lose, 0.42% Tie----EV=0.204

Amazing. Considering I just spent time complaining about not hitting flush draws, hitting runner-runner-runner-runner clubs to make the only hand I could win with is just absolutely amazing. Lucky and amazing.

My read was that MP had KK. The re-raise screamed of KK, and he's a fairly solid player from his past stats, so I had him on KK. The CO player I didn't really know, and when he re-re-raised all-in, I figured he was trying to knock me off a hand like AK or AQ, or suited paint. I had him on a high pair, but not AA, especially since I had AA already. I insta-called, figuring I had him dominated, and when the MP player didn't re-up that, I knew my read was right. Three clubs on the flop, and when he bet out, I knew he had the Kc. I honestly started to salivate, because I knew I had him beat unless he hit another K, or (God forbid), he went nuts with KQs and already hit the flush. It was only a small amount to call his all-in, $3.60, relative to a $51 pot, so it was easy.

In retrospect,

Board: 9c 6c 7c
Hero: As Ac---33.89% Win, 7.42% Lose, 58.69% Tie----EV=0.629
CO: Ad Ah---0% Win, 41.31% Lose, 58.69% Tie----EV=0.290
MP: Kc Kd---7.42% Win, 90.37% Lose, 2.21% Tie----EV=0.082

--from twodimes.net

Amazing that post-flop (not that he could know it), a player with AA is drawing dead to win the whole pot. The best he could hope for is that the flush draw doesn't improve and a split pot...

Turn card Jc completes my nut flush. All I could think of was that somebody is just celebrating at his computer because he raised all-in with Tc 8c to make his straight flush...Tell me that's not paranoid. The crowd is drawing (unbeknownst to me, though I for all seriousness figured I had won the hand) dead, and the turn card 9s was immaterial. When the board paired, my mind races to, "What if he has 99?? What about 66? 77? JJ?" Just my luck, right?

When the cards were revealed and I realized it was AA v. AA v. KK, I stopped and had to catch my breath. An amazing hand that I was purely lucky to win.

More Analysis on Flushes

If I go there will be trouble
An' if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
--The Clash

After some crunching, I found out the following:

When you flop a flush draw, you have a 19.15% chance to make your flush by the turn, 34.97% to make it by the river. This translates into 4.22-to-1 odds to make your flush on the turn, and 1.86-to-1 to make it by the river. In no-limit hold'em, of course, implied odds are hard to accurately determine because the betting is unlimited and uncapped. There are also other major factors determining the suitability of a call. What is the high card in your hand? On the board? Are you drawing to the nuts? Is there a pair on board that could easily lead to a full house? Do you have additional outs?

Let's start:

What is the high card in your hand? Kings and Aces, obviously, are best. Anything lower, and you had better have a damn good read to think you aren't beaten by a better flush. A Jack-high flush when another player has the nut flush can be an awfully expensive hand.

What is the high card on the board? If you're holding a Queen, and the King and/or Ace is already on the board, obviously you're in good shape. Beware of gaps, and make sure that again, if you're drawing to a flush, you make damn sure that you'll have the best flush out there. All a second-best hand is good for is to bleed your bankroll.

Are you drawing to the nuts? Is there a pair on board that could easily lead to a full house? Take this example. You have AKs, flop is 9-7-9, two of your suit. You're well set, but 25.9% of hands out there have you beat right now. It ties in to the next question--do you have additional outs? In that situation, even if you do make the flush, you may already be drawing dead, or need runner-runner to spare your chips. Now if you change that hand to having QJs, with a 7-5-7 board, you are facing an underdog situation. 52.54% of possible hands have you beat. Your read will of course narrow down your opponent's holdings, but regardless, you're drawing to a Queen-high flush and are a dog. This should all enter in to your calculations and thoughts on whether to bet, call, or fold.

Do you have additional outs? Top pair, even middle pair, a straight draw, all of these can make a flush draw hand more valuable. You are much less likely to lay down a drawing hand with top pair, and even if you don't hit your draw, you may win unimproved:

You hold: AQs
Flop: Q-9-4 (9 and 4 are your suit). You are a HUGE favorite to win here. Top pair with very best kicker, and if another suited card comes, you are holding a monster. The numbers vs. other starting hands are 96.02% win, 0.56 % tie, 3.42% lose.

Change the flop....you now flop middle pair.

You hold A9s
Flop: Q-9-4 (Q and 4 are your suit). Your percentages only drop to 84.09 to win, 15.36 % to lose. Few hands have you dominated, maybe QQ or 44, and you're in a definitely good position.

What about low pair?

You hold A4s
Flop: Q-9-4 (Q and 9 are your suit). You are still 71.05% to win, 28.4% to lose. QQ and 99 have you dominated, but it's still worth calling. Keep in mind that you're 4.22-to-1 to make your flush with the next card. With 5 or more players, it's a must-call. Even heads up, with no pocket pair indication, it's a must-call. Keep checking your odds.

Gutshot Straight Draw?

You hold AJs
Flop: 9-8-Q (9 and 8 are your suit). More of a coin flip, but even though you're only drawing, you're still a 57-43 favorite here.

Open End Straight Draw?

You hold KQs
Flop: J-T-4 (J and 4 are your suit). You're a slight dog (54-46 underdog) here for the first time, believe it or not. You have however 9 outs for the flush, 6 outs for the straight (not double counting the suited A or 9), and 15 outs is a great way to crash and burn. Watch out for the Ace-high flush draw, however.

The numbers to keep in mind are 4.22-to-1. They are your odds of making your flush on the turn from a flopped 4-flush. Examine your pot odds, and your other outs, and make your decision on that information:

The Great Flush Draw Odds Chart

You Have	Draw to...	Outs	Odds
Flush Draw	Flush	9	4.22-to-1
Flush Draw + OE Straight Draw	Flush/Straight	15	2.13-to-1
Flush Draw + OE Straight Draw+ 2 Overcards	Flush/Straight/Top Pair	21	1.24-to-1
Flush Draw + OE Straight Draw+ 1 Overcard	Flush/Straight/Top Pair	18	1.61-to-1
Flush Draw + GS Straight Draw	Flush/Straight	12	2.92-to-1
Flush Draw + GS Straight Draw + 2 Overcards	Flush/Straight/Top Pair	18	1.61-to-1
Flush Draw + GS Straight Draw + 1 Overcard	Flush/Straight/Top Pair	15	2.13-to-1
Flush Draw + 2 Overcards	Flush/Top Pair	15	2.13-to-1
Flush Draw + 1 Overcard	Flush/Top Pair	12	2.92-to-1
Flush Draw + Pair (from hole card)	Flush/Top Pair/Trips	14	2.4-to-1

If I overused anyone's hard work in compiling this info, let me know by commenting, I'll be happy to credit you!

Now THIS Freaks Me Out

Just played a $25 NL table on Stars--16 hands, finished up $52.60. I had to share this carnage with you. This may be the most bizarre hand I have ever seen or played in my life. Keep in mind, in this session, I was dealt AA twice, and 3 other pocket pairs (99, 77, 44) in 16 hands.

Now, for the train wreck--this makes up for not hitting flushes...

Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: PAYUDAY ($18 in chips)
Seat 2: tinman4ac ($7.15 in chips)
Seat 3: Tiburon41 ($29.85 in chips)
Seat 4: kingofhill ($16.90 in chips)
Seat 5: mtc722 ($14.30 in chips)
Seat 6: Mr D Sr ($10.35 in chips)
Seat 7: forumjp59 ($23.25 in chips)
Seat 8: webmonarch ($13.30 in chips)
Seat 9: CoinJock ($20.50 in chips)
Mr D Sr: posts small blind $0.10
forumjp59: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Tiburon41 [As Ac]
webmonarch: folds
CoinJock: calls $0.25
PAYUDAY: folds
tinman4ac: folds
Tiburon41: calls $0.25
kingofhill: raises $0.75 to $1
mtc722: folds
Mr D Sr: folds
forumjp59: calls $0.75
CoinJock: raises $1 to $2
Tiburon41: raises $1 to $3
kingofhill: raises $13.90 to $16.90 and is all-in
forumjp59: folds
CoinJock: calls $14.90
Tiburon41: calls $13.90
*** FLOP *** [9c 6c 7c]
CoinJock: bets $3.60 and is all-in
Tiburon41: calls $3.60
*** TURN *** [9c 6c 7c] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [9c 6c 7c Jc] [9s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CoinJock: shows [Kd Kc] (a flush, King high)
Tiburon41: shows [As Ac] (a flush, Ace high)
Tiburon41 collected $6.95 from side pot
kingofhill: mucks hand
Tiburon41 collected $49.25 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $59 Main pot $49.25. Side pot $6.95. | Rake $2.80
Board [9c 6c 7c Jc 9s]
Seat 1: PAYUDAY folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: tinman4ac folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Tiburon41 showed [As Ac] and won ($56.20) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 4: kingofhill mucked [Ah Ad]
Seat 5: mtc722 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Mr D Sr (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: forumjp59 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: webmonarch folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: CoinJock showed [Kd Kc] and lost with a flush, King high

So to summarize--AA v. AA v. KK. With a FLUSH to win...For tonight, for 16 hands, I was the luckiest son-of-a-bitch alive. In 15 minutes, with a ton of luck, I more than tripled up.

My (First) Chance at Glory--and Chasing Flushes

Played in a FPP Freeroll to win a seat at the main event tonight. Third hand in, dealt QQ in late position. A guy later revealed to be a stooge goes all-in on a 2h-7d-4h flop. I toss it, another guy calls and takes down the pot with a rivered pair of nines. The turn card? Of course, a queen. Could have tripled up, but lost the chance. Played overall pretty well into and beyond the first break, mostly picking off small pots before those blessed Hilton Sisters came back to bring me a big 'un. I flopped trips this time, and took down a T3500 pot vs. KQo. That put me into the top 40 right before the break and got me really thinking. Little did I know that I would steal blinds twice after that, but I wouldn't win another pot. About an hour and a half in, with 75/150 blinds, I find myself with A8s vs. TT. No help and IGHN in 98th place.

Chasing Flushes

Funny thing is that I flopped a flush tonight in a side game at a $25NL table. Other than that, I seem to have a major allergy to flushes. I've been playing with Tracker for a while now, and in 3,752 hands, here is my final hand summary (at showdown):

High Card: 38
One Pair: 136
Two Pair: 109
Three of a Kind: 37
Straight: 25
Flush: 20
Full House: 30

Is that an anomaly? I've probably flopped 4-flushes more than any player in recent memory. If my math serves me right, I should make my flush about 1 in 3 times (34.97%) by the river when flopping a 4-flush. This is probably the biggest leak in my game. I will chase 4-flushes (mostly with odds ) down to the river and toss the hand away. In tourneys, in ring games, I can't seem to get away from flush draws. You can also be sure that I generally don't (I know--giving stuff away here...) draw to a flush with less than a queen-high in my hand, unless of course, it's real cheap. Best part is that of my 20 flushes, 8 came with 4 on the board. So to summarize, I've had suited cards 868 times. I've drawn 12 flushes out of those. That is 1 in 72 or 1.38%. With offsuit cards, I've drawn 8 flushes in 2,669 hands (1 in 333 or 0.3%). My knowledge tells me that suited cards in the hand will yield a flush by the river 6.4% and unsuited cards 1.8% of the time. So....

	Suited	Unsuited
Expected	6.4%	1.8%
Reality	1.38%	0.3%

I'm not on the "Poker Is Rigged" bandwagon, but isn't that odd. The sample size is somewhat small (3,752 hands), but isn't it odd anyhow? This is the leak in my game currently. How far do you chase flushes? I know my odds. I'm 5-to-1 to make the flush on the turn, and better than 3-to-1 to make it by the river. If you're in a multi-way pot with a hand like AJs with a flush draw on the flop, how the hell do you get away from it?

Case in point:

Your hand: As-Js
Flop: 9s-Kd-2s

At this point, you're a 58-41 favorite to win the hand. You're 19% to make your flush on the next card. You're 35% to make it by the river. You make it, you win. Period.

Turn: 4h

Your 58-41 favorite has now become a 51.5-47.5 dog. You're 19.57% to make your flush by the river. You're a slight dog overall, and anybody wih a K, 9, 7, or 4 has you beat right now, not withstanding pocket pairs. And I understand bricking up sometimes. You won't make your flush all the time. But, sometimes? A little?

More Stats

Of my 20 flushes, as mentioned above, 8 were made with 4 on the board (from an unsuited hand).
I flopped 2 flushes--both nut flushes, and both winners.
I turned 8--winning 5 and losing 3 (one a K-high to an A-high, one a Q-high to a K-high, and one a J-high to an A-high).
The other ten were rivered, winning 9 and losing 1 (to a full house made on the river from my flush card). See, I do chase a lot. Do you also see why? However, it doesn't offset the hemhorrage of chips from me when I don't hit the damn thing.

Any suggestions are as always, welcome...

Micro-Limit Players

You know, after playing $25NL, it really amazes me how players over-play and under-play hands. I may have actually just gotten it. Was I aggravated at virtually back-to-back straight suckouts cracking AA? Yes. Pissed? Yes. What is my long-term outlook? Positive. Why? Because I know these players are there, and that taking my money will keep bringing them back. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, I will make serious money against the fish. In the meantime, I'm going to give a short-form primer into the mistakes that low-limit players make at the NL tables:

1) Fish overplay TPTK on small boards.
Here's the setup: You're in LP with AJo. An tight aggressive EP player makes it 6BB (NL, obviously), and a MP player (let's call him Fishy) cold calls. You fold, and it's heads up on the flop. The flop is 9-7-4 rainbow. Fishy has J9o, and bets into the flop with TPTK. Now what intelligent good player does that? The TA player in EP obviously has a premium hand (AA, KK, QQ, AKs), and Mr. TPTK is dominated. He's dominated pre-flop, post-flop, and right down until he ships his chips to the TA player (or he runner-runners him to win), he's a HUGE dog.

Look at yesterday's first hand carnage--I had AA (75.46%), Fishy had AQ (6.76%), Lucy had T8o (16.63%). On a flop of Q-J-2, all Fishy has done is make himself a very expensive second-best hand. He has 2 outs, the remaining 2 Qs. Lucy, with his T8o, actually has 4 outs, the 4 9's in the deck. The pot, after the flop, is $4.75. Percentages? My AA (70.54%), Lucy's T8o (20.04%), Fishy's AQ (8.08%). I bet $2 into it, not wanting to scare anybody away, but making an effective bet. Lucy is next to bet. He has the gutshot draw, betting into a $6.75 pot. He raises it to $8.25, and I put him at best on QJs, not having a great read on him, or maybe an openend draw based on the rainbow flop. Fishy then calls the $8.25 with TPTK into a $15 pot. He's getting only 1.8:1 to call. For him, this is crazy. His odds of winning (unknown to him, though he should have had a read on me, since it was the first flop I had seen in almost 3 orbits) were 22-to-1. He was screwed. Lucy went all-in with 10.5:1 odds to win. Also crazy. I called the remaining $6.25, getting 3.72-to-1 odds to call with what I assumed (except for QJ) to be the best hand on the table. We checked down to the river, where Fishy bet $2 into me, and with turn and river cards like a 9 and a 6, I knew he wasn't calling with Q9 or Q6, and that he might have had QQ or JJ, but I didn't figure him for it. I was right when he turned AQo. I insta called, and expected fully to have this $31.90 pot pushed to me, when Lucy turned over his straight. He was going all-in with anything post-flop. It wouldn't have mattered. I played the hand well, but he drew out. If he wants to play T8o against my AA, he can do that any time. The board wasn't small, but when the all-ins started coming, Fishy should have thought--hey, maybe I'm beat here. But he didn't. The love affair between fish and TPTK is eternal.

2) The Rules of Poker Club:
Rule #1: You do not give a fish a free card.
Rule #2: You DO NOT give a fish a free card.
So what did I do? I gave a guy who was actually fairly tight a free card on a decent flop. I didn't learn my lesson. AA with a flop of K-Q-2 rainbow (how similar--see--online poker is rigged) is a no-brainer bet. I've raised from the SB, he called from the BB. I had him beat. I bet into him, he doesn't hang around. Instead, I checked. Checking and small-bet cold calling is the fish and/or calling station's raison d'etre. It's what they live for. You can't make them think about calling a bet you never make. I'm not sure what I was thinking, maybe waiting for a check-raise, but as Miller, Sklansky, and everybody else says, a check-raise situation without a bet after you is dangerous. Very dangerous indeed. The turn was a 7, a blank, but a card that I should NEVER have let him see. It goes to prove how different a game limit is from no-limit. A $1 bet in 1/2 limit would not discourage a player from chasing a gutshot. A check? It is a truly free card. Major mistake. I bet the turn, but only $1 into a $2.50 pot. I gave him 3.5 to 1 to call. Not good enough to call for an 11-to-1 gutshot, but it is only a dollar, and the fish don't know pot odds either... He then rivers his straight, gets me all-in with a second best hand that tilt kept me from laying down, even though I tried to push him off with a raise to make him think that I had made the Broadway straight. He was pot committed, and would definitely call, and definitely win. Bad play.

3) Never cold-call pre-flop raises with crap, even in LP.
In disaster hand #3, I cold-called a PFR with KQo. Blame it on tilt. I did the exact thing that #1 says NOT to do. I fell in love with TPTK. Three players, I saw two pair on the river and called an all-in. Big mistake. Another second-best hand costing me. The BB called a MP raise with a small pair, hit his trips, then filled up on the river. He played it well, I was on tilt--buy-in gone.

The bottom line is that the low-limit fish will give you their money. The combination of their bad plays with your good ones will make you money in the long run. After analysis, I am still mad for losing my buy-in (even if it WAS only $25), but I only have one person to be mad at--me.

To solid play!

Historic Day in the History of Suckouts

Playing $25NL on Stars, I saw 3 flops of 22...Here they are.

Hand 1:
Seat #2 is the button
Seat 3: dg111 ($9.75 in chips)
Seat 5: CaptainDuck ($20.55 in chips)
Seat 6: Tiburon41 ($23.80 in chips)
dg111: posts small blind $0.10
moneymaker66: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Tiburon41 [Ad Ac]
CaptainDuck: raises $0.25 to $0.50
Tiburon41: raises $1 to $1.50
dg111: calls $1.40
CaptainDuck: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [Qd Jc 2h]
dg111: checks
CaptainDuck: checks
Tiburon41: bets $2
dg111: raises $6.25 to $8.25 and is all-in
CaptainDuck: calls $8.25
Tiburon41: calls $6.25
*** TURN *** [Qd Jc 2h] [9s]
CaptainDuck: checks
Tiburon41: checks
*** RIVER *** [Qd Jc 2h 9s] [6d]
CaptainDuck: bets $2
Tiburon41: calls $2
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CaptainDuck: shows [As Qh] (a pair of Queens)
Tiburon41: shows [Ad Ac] (a pair of Aces)
Tiburon41 collected $3.85 from side pot
dg111: shows [8d Th] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
dg111 collected $28.05 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $33.50 Main pot $28.05. Side pot $3.85. | Rake $1.60

...I always call a 6BB raise with T8o, and go all-in on an inside draw.

Three hands later...

Seat 5 is the button:
Seat 6: Tiburon41 ($15.40 in chips)
Seat 7: Smegs ($8.55 in chips)
Tiburon41: posts small blind $0.10
Smegs: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Tiburon41 [Ac Ah]
Tiburon41: raises $1 to $1.25
Smegs: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [Kc Qs 2h]
Tiburon41: checks
Smegs: checks
*** TURN *** [Kc Qs 2h] [7d]
Tiburon41: bets $1
Smegs: calls $1
*** RIVER *** [Kc Qs 2h 7d] [Jc]
Tiburon41: bets $2
Smegs: raises $2 to $4
Tiburon41: raises $6 to $10
Smegs: calls $2.30 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Tiburon41: shows [Ac Ah] (a pair of Aces)
Smegs: shows [Td 9s] (a straight, Nine to King)
Smegs collected $16.30 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $17.10 | Rake $0.80

...Just like I always call 5 BB raises with T9o...

4 hands after this gem:

Table 'Gienah III' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 2: stevehlv ($6.95 in chips)
Seat 6: Tiburon41 ($6.85 in chips)
Seat 8: grifter34 ($10.25 in chips)
dudeli: posts small blind $0.10
stevehlv: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Tiburon41 [Qc Kh]
CaptainDuck: calls $0.25
Tiburon41: calls $0.25
grifter34: raises $1.25 to $1.50
stevehlv: calls $1.25
Tiburon41: calls $1.25
*** FLOP *** [4s Kc 9h]
stevehlv: bets $1
Tiburon41: calls $1
grifter34: calls $1
*** TURN *** [4s Kc 9h] [8s]
stevehlv: bets $2
Tiburon41: calls $2
grifter34: calls $2
*** RIVER *** [4s Kc 9h 8s] [9d]
stevehlv: bets $2.45 and is all-in
Tiburon41: calls $2.35 and is all-in
grifter34: calls $2.45
*** SHOW DOWN ***
stevehlv: shows [4c 4d] (a full house, Fours full of Nines)
grifter34: mucks hand
stevehlv collected $0.20 from side pot
Tiburon41: mucks hand
stevehlv collected $19.90 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $21.10 Main pot $19.90. Side pot $0.20. | Rake $1

I call 6 BB LP raises with pocket 4's too. At least my excuse with KQ was tilt. And I still had a better hand than the raiser, who had J8s.

If these online players ever played live, for real money...I really think I could take them for everything they own. Horrendous.

3 hands, lost buy-in. Severely on tilt. Done for the day.

More Phenomenal Advice

You know, you bloggers are really smart. HDouble over at The Cards Speak found an old link at RGP for a post called the Basic Concepts of Sucking Out. To quote HDub, "Abdul Jalib's Theory of Sucking Out is probably the best advice on how to play draws in limit hold em ever written." I must agree--it explains pot equity, pot odds, the whole shebang quite nicely. It's a long post, so I'll just link to it here:

Basic Concepts of Sucking Out--The Definitive Guide to Draws in Limit Holdem

Credit to Abdul Jalib for writing it, and HDouble for resurrecting it. Read and learn, folks. Read and learn.

Trop trip got cancelled. A few in the group wanted to stay down in AC (big deal, I live 30 minutes away), and the cheapest hotel room available was like $300. Christ, the Super 8 off the Boardwalk was $225 for tonight. Borgata has no vacancies, Trop wants $375, Taj is at $285--and the funny thing is that other than summer Saturday nights (June through September) and New Year's Eve, this is the most expensive night of the entire year to stay at these hotels. Am I missing something? We've rescheduled for next weekend. It'll still be a btch to get a 2/4 or a 3/6, though.

More Stupidity

Link

Woman Shoots At Half-Naked Burglar

A Wilmington woman got the scare of her life when a nearly naked intruder broke into her home, but she turned the tables on the man, who quickly turned tail and ran.
According to police, Keith Simpson, 32, was wearing nothing more than a red T-shirt when he tried to break into her house Friday morning.
"Somebody was ringing my doorbell and so I yelled, 'Who is it? Who is it?' They wouldn't answer," said Cheryl Pettaway.
Pettaway grabbed her son and her gun and started to call 911.
That was when the half-naked Simpson broke through Pettaway's back door.
"The next thing you know, I just heard somebody in my house and I ran midpoint down the steps and I fired shots randomly," Pettaway said.
She fired her gun at least eight times, but missed the intruder. He tried to flee through the garage, but that is where he was caught by police.
Police said this was one of the oddest burglary cases they have seen.
"This is definitely something we don't see every day. ... Breaking in half-clothed -- that's different," said Sgt. William Wells, of the Wilmington police.
Police said Simpson was admitted to Wilmington Hospital for psychiatric evaluation and for treatment of wounds he got when he broke through a glass door.
After he is released from the hospital, he will face charges.

"Breaking in half-clothed..." Cop must be an optimist or something...Half-clothed must sound better than half-naked.

Sheesh.

A Shout Out To A Friend

Just remember--you're not alone.

Back to No-Limit

Last night I decided to go back to my no-limit roots. I played a 0.25/0.50 NL table on Stars ($25 NL), and finished my session up about $10. Baby steps. A couple interesting hands, including a laydown of AA by me to a A-Q-J-T board, and I was right--he had the king. I won a big pot against AA with a big blind special of 96o, flopping two pair on the 9-6-2 flop and holding up. I flopped a Mike McD and won a decent sized pot against two pair (T8s on the button, flop came 6-9-7 rainbow). The hand was Rounders down to the river ace. I wanted to type in "I flopped the nut straight," just so TeddyKGB could yell "Motherfucker!"

I played only because I couldn't sleep, and that's not a good thing, but all things are good that end in winnings, right?

By the way, I just wanted to thank all of you for your encouraging words in my slump. It's funny, because all the things you all have said to me, I already know. It just makes it feel better to hear it from someone else. That's why the bloggers stick together (mostly).

Story of the Day

Monster Under Bed For Sale on eBay

And in case you were wondering, here is the auction.

So in the past few months, we've seen ghosts, monsters, and advertising space on someone's own belly sold on eBay. I want to see somebody sell their bad luck next. Damn. I should try that!

As I type this, 5-seed Alabama is down to 12-seed Wisconsin-Milwaukee by 9 with 8:38 to go in the 2nd half. Encouragement--suck outs happen everywhere!

Tomorrow, we're going to see The Ring two. The first one scared the shit out of Mrs. PokerShark.

...seven days...

Ladies--watch the original after midnight, in the dark, with a wise-ass boyfriend who uses his cell phone to call your house as soon as the movie ends. See if it scares you. Hee hee.

We're going to be heading down to the Trop and/or the Taj early in the afternoon Saturday. Anybody got tips on how to get your name on the list early? Report will follow...

Enjoy St. Patty's Day and hoist a green one for me!

Great Advice

Scurvydog, from Sound of a Suckout, which should really be the title of my blog, offers the following fantastic advice:

If you don't have enough of a bankroll to play the way you know you should be playing, save until you have the necessary roll. Spend that time studying, playing freerolls, learning. Wait until you can deposit enough to give yourself a decent chance of success. Don't hamstring yourself by constantly nursing tiny bankrolls. All you're doing is conditioning yourself to play scared, which'll bite you in the ass later on even if you do run your roll up.

Is that what I'm doing? Maybe I should actually take good advice, save up and deposit again with a real friggin bankroll.

And again!

People will say over and over that you shouldn't be results-oriented, that it'll drive you crazy if you are, especially as you see your AA get cracked over and over and over by 74o. They'll extend the argument and say that you shouldn't focus on the results from one individual session, or a week's worth of sessions, or even a month, as it's the big picture you should keep a steady eye on, knowing that your solid play over time will cause more chips to congregate on your side of the table.
I cry bullshit on that. The warm fuzzy feeling that you're playing solid poker, despite the mounting losses, is worth exactly jack and squat. Poker is a game of winners and losers, and the difference between the two is gaudily visible, impossible to miss. If you play better than the other people at the table, you win. If you don't, you lose. Winners make money. Losers lose money.

You know what? I'm just gonna link to his whole post. It's friggin poetry: Great advice!

I'm actually going to re-read the post and ingrain it into my being. I knew I read all these damn blogs for a reason--y'all are pretty damn smart.

Oh, and the comment of the year from Wes, the Suicide King:

whenever something similar happens to me, I just envision them sitting at their computer smiling, then a big fist coming out of the screen punching them in the face and them falling over backwards. It may not be the best of tactics, but at least it makes me smile and try to get over it.

Great stuff. The image alone is priceless:

Are You Kidding Me?

Thieves Locked Out Of Getaway Car Alert Neighbor

A vigilant neighbor in the Angier area who reported suspicious activity next door led to the arrest of three burglary suspects from Raleigh Monday.
Sheriff Larry Rollins praised the neighbor who reported what she thought was a car break-in, although the sheriff said what the witness saw was actually the suspects trying to break into their own car.
"Turns out they had locked themselves out of the getaway car," he said.
One of the alleged thieves was apprehended by a police dog after the suspect was shot at for refusing to drop his weapon, Sheriff Rollins said.
The sheriff said a deputy was pursuing Carlos Antoine Broadway, 23, on foot through the Hawley Mobile Home Park in Buies Creek and had ordered him to drop the handgun he was carrying several times. Sheriff Rollins said the deputy, who is one of the departments dog handlers, fired two shots at Mr. Broadway as the suspect rounded a tree in a ditch.
He looked like he was moving around that tree to get cover and the officer was out in the open, the sheriff said. Both the deputys shots missed, according to the sheriff. He said the officer then released his dog, which quickly apprehended Mr. Broadway. The other two suspects were apprehended by a deputy working at Campbell University who joined the chase and pursued them on foot after they also fled into the woods.
Braxton Leon Smith, 22, and 23-year-old Weston Austin Taylor were each jailed under $100,000 bond. Mr. Broadways bond was set at $150,000.
All three suspects have been charged with breaking and entering, two counts each of larceny and possessing stolen property and eight counts each of larceny of a firearm and possession of a stolen firearm a total of 21 felonies each. Sheriff Rollins said all three will also be charged with resisting arrest and a charge of going armed to the terror of people may be brought against Mr. Broadway.
All the items stolen during the Angier burglary more than $7,600 in property, including eight firearms and a computer was recovered in the suspects vehicle, Sheriff Rollins said. Mr. Broadway is also wanted on separate breaking and entering charges in Wake County, he said.
The pursuit began after a resident of Kingsway Court in Angier reported seeing a vehicle break-in next door just after 11 a.m. Monday.
Sheriff Rollins said a deputy in an unmarked car on N.C. 27 started following a burgundy Chrysler on the chance it might be the red Cadillac reported leaving the scene.
"That was pretty sharp of the officer," Sheriff Rollins said.
An officer from Campbell in a marked vehicle joined the chase as it entered Buies Creek. The suspects abandoned their vehicle in the J.C. Hawley Mobile Home Park off Marshbanks Street.

Unreal. The headline alone is an instant classic.

That's Mr. Sour Grapes to You

I feel horrible. I'm mucking along, reading about everybody's wins, and making money at the 25NL tables and at lower limits. You all know my stats. You all know how I play. Why do I continue to lose? The river suckout is becoming my own art form. There is nothing more frustrating than playing a hand perfectly and getting beaten by not hitting a draw, or by being beaten by a player on the river who is insane to play the cards he's dealt that far anyway. Look at the example below (the O8B post). I know I shouldn't necessarily be playing a draw, especially not that hard, but when you keep flopping 4-flushes, you should hit SOMETHING, right? My confidence is pretty much gone, and I don't know how to fix it. At one point, I had over $360 in my Stars account bullying low-limit tables. I haven't changed my style one bit. And in the occasional good session with the cards, I exhibit the same characteristics that make me a winning player. There is one thing that I learned--paraphrased from Chris --you can't bluff people that don't know how to play the game. So no bluffing. Then I get dealt crap for 4 orbits, and watch the blinds eat away my stack as I toss unplayable hand after unplayable hand away. Then I finally get something: KK. Flop trips with K-rag-rag. Bet and raise all the way to the river. Cap twice. River card pops up, and the other guy flips up 74o to make his runner-runner rag filled straight. Two holes in an inside straight draw and he caps betting? Happened to me Monday. Lost almost $28 on that gem. It just keeps happening. I'm almost afraid to play now, just for fear that my flopped Broadway straight isn't enough, or that the AK2 flop that gave me Aces and Kings isn't good. Bet/raise/cap, and the guy flips over 92o after the river brings a 2. There are no consequences to calling a bet--they figure, "What the hell." I take it seriously, they don't. I want to win. They'll just bet it to the river. Since the end of February, I've had the worst luck I've ever seen. I've never flopped so many 4-flushes in my life. I play tight enough that you KNOW they're king-high, or nut flushes. Could I get a card? Never. Why? Why should we pay off the good player? Let him play it to the river--don't pair anything. Leave him with nothing. It's good. He'll chase the flush. Then he'll fold on the river when it's obvious that he's beaten. I lose so much money this way. Getting pot odds the whole way, I bet. I raise. I am as aggressive as they come. I almost wonder if I should just bite the bullet and take a grand and start at 4/8. You know, where calling a capped bet has consequences.

I have no intentions of doing that, of course. I just don't think I can hang at microlimits or small-stakes anymore.

Mrs. PokerShark said to me, after my umpteenth rant about shitty players winning,

Not everybody's going to play right. If they did, nobody would ever win!

I understand that. I play ABC poker. Nauseatingly boring. Winning over the long haul, though. I also play aggressively. I push people off hands regularly. Except of course, the guy who calls my all-in and runner-runners me to win. I was playing O8B with a guy (I should give out his Stars screen name, but I won't...) who called my pot-sized pre-flop raise with 8-9-J-T rainbow. He called when I bet the pot again with trip aces (I had A2A3 double suited). He called again and again, and sucked out a straight (with no low) when I couldn't hit a low card, a diamond, or get the board to pair). This was a $50 pot, mind you. His last call was on an inside straight draw. 2-to-1 to call on an inside draw. I should be celebrating this, that eventually I will win out over this douchebag. But when? If it's not him getting lucky, it's someone else. It's constant.

Face it. I'm not losing because I'm being outplayed. Maybe one pot every couple sessions, someone will trap me. I'm losing because someone drew out a shitty hand. Either they out drew me, or they drew to a shitty hand that would beat my made hand. In O8B yesterday, I lost a pot to an nine-high flush (won one too). I had a Broadway straight from the turn, and the guy just called and called, and hit a nine-high flush. I don't slowplay anymore. Anything!

If I slowplay, I lose.

This is what my mental game has deteriorated to. It's been constant since the beginning of the month. I took up O8B to alleviate the holdem losses. Now I'm getting sucked out on there too. What's next? Stud? Stud 8/B? Razz on Full Tilt? I've lost over $140 (over half my roll) since 3/1, and Mrs. PokerShark lost $80 that I gave her. I can't buy a win anywhere.

Some will say, "What about going down limits?" Ah, yes, where calling has even less consequence. I observed a 0.50/1 table yesterday. 7 players playing all the way to the river, some with Jack-high!

That will go over big in the suckout motif.

All I know is that, with the casino trip this weekend, I need to get my game back--fast. I need to get my live game on. Play aggressive, but hide it. Don't want to totally scare the fish away. But if I leave them around, they will suck out on me. Guaranteed. As much as I love poker for the high level of thought required to play the game is as much as I hate it right now...

Grrrr.

The O8B Drawing Blues

I don't know how it's possible, but in a span of 3 hands, I managed to miss TWO 19-outers. Let's count:

First hand:
Dealt: Ad, 5h, As, 4s.
Flop: 7s, 6s, Jc
Turn: 6d
River: 9c

As I count it, on the river,
Option 1: As, 4s, 6s, 7s--flush draw: any spade (9 outs)
Option 2: 4s, 5h, 6s, 7s--open end straight draw (8 outs, minus 2 spades already counted=6 outs)
Option 3: Ad, As, 6d, 6s--full house draw (4 outs)
Option 4: 7-6-4-A--any 2, 3, or 5 for low (11 outs to tie, minus the 3's, and minus the spades--5 more outs--at WORST)

The eventual winning hand was a nine-high straight with no low qualified. I had 24 outs at a full table to a guarantee of at least HALF the pot. 24 outs out of 41 unseen cards. That is obscene.

Best thing is that the 5 bricks up my opponent and he doesn't even qualify a low, let alone a straight. Plus, looking again at his hole cards, he was drawing completely dead for the low. Any 2,3, or 5 gives me a nut low.

Three hands before, I missed a high where I flopped a 4-flush, and my other cards both paired. 9 outs for the flush, 4 for the full house. Naturally, trip 2's won the high for the hand...

In the last two days, I've flopped 4-flushes 9 times at O8B. I've hit ZERO. I've flopped flushes twice. My king-high lost to a boat made on the river, and my 9 high (yes, nine-high) actually held up.

The casino trip is Saturday. This shitty luck had better quit by then, or I may be living on the street.

Again, I channel the National Heads-Up Poker Champion:

If it wasn't for luck, I'd win every hand...
--Phil Hellmuth

Better Late Than Never

Me...in all my South Park glory!

Fantastic Razz & Low Game Tips

I was just reading some of April's comments, and Felicia in a comment gave probably the best short form Razz primer I've ever seen. It's so basic, so easy to understand, yet so damn right:

The easiest way to read a hand in any low game is by making it into a whole number.
So say you are playing Razz, since it is easiest to illustrate in Razz than any other poker game.
Say you start like this: A3/5
Great start, three to a bike, raise it on up, raise any other raiser, unless you think you'll get no action (not likely in today's poker world).
On fourth you brick up: A3/53
But heck, no one knows you paired, and you still have your premium start. Unless you feel you are so badly beat that you have no odds to stay in, just bet your board. Razz is a board game, after all!
On fifth you fare a bit better: A3/534
Sixth you pair again, dang! A3/534A
But no one knows you have two pair with a bike draw, so bet it. Only morons are going to be in there with you, anyway, showing a board like that!
The river...thank God: A3/534A/6
So now to your question, how do you read your hand? This is the time to put it into a whole number. Forget about the two pair, it's the lowest FIVE cards that count.
A3456, excellent, but how do you know what beats what? Turn it around, into a whole number:
65,431, that is your low. Compare it to other lows that might be out, and remember, the lowest low wins.
87,531 is a greater number than 65,431.
75,532 is still a lower number than: 76,321, right?
Don't let that ace fool you. People try to read it from the bottom up, that is incorrect. In all low games (Stud 8, Razz, Omaha , it is read from the top down, not the bottom up. Turn the number into a whole number, and you will never be confused!
Good luck!

Let Felicia guide you through the world of the lowball games. She's the master!

A New Attitude

Well, I played a couple short handed tables last night (1/2 6-max). To put it bluntly, I ran them over. Read through Small Stakes Hold'em again, and took some more of its lessons to heart. Played with the idea that I wouldn't be pushed off anything and that I would play my tight style, play fast, and push hard when the time is right. Two hours and a ridiculous 23BB/100 win rate later, I ran them all over.

According to Tracker, my aggression rating on the two tables was 5.65. I pushed people off with stone cold bluffs. Passive players? Dead. Miller is so right when he says that showing strength from beginning to end is a great way to win. Example: I raised with ATs on the button, flopped a gutshot (Q-K-3 rainbow). I bet, got 3 callers. Turn was a 5. I bet, got 2 callers. The river was a 7. I bet again, folded to me. I win. Ruthless aggression. Another hand for aggression's sake: Dealt 98o in the BB. Flop is 9-8-9 (hee hee). I check, get 2 checks behind me, another guy decides it's time to bet. I then raise. Checkers run away, he re-raises, I cap. Turn card is a 9 (hee hee again). I bet, he raises, I re-reraise, he caps.

Commentary--He was just check-raised by someone in the BB. Trips on the board, after a check raise. If he doesn't have 88 here, he should've been sitting on the sidelines a long time ago.

River card puts a flush on the board (think it was a J). He bets, rinse, repeat, it's a capped pot ($44). I show my quads, made after my boat, and he mucks. I need to check the hand history to see what the hell he thought was so good to cap with. Like I said, 88 or a monster pair (AA, KK, QQ, JJ) are the only hands you'd even think of staying in with. He may have thought he had me beat with 9's full of blank with a pocket pair, but when I capped it twice, and with my image as a TAA player, what the hell did he think I had? If that's in fact what he did have, the quads were the only way I could have won, but lesson learned--Never slowplay big pairs... It's the best way to lose. If, let's just say for the sake of argument, he had AA, and he raised pre-flop, I play so relatively tight, that I probably throw 98o away. No raise, I'm in--flop the boat, turn quads, YGHN.

Sign of the Impending Apocalypse

Producers announced in February that they were still planning to bring the 3-year-old London stage show "Jerry Springer, The Opera" to America in early 2006, despite increasingly vituperative protests of religious groups. The show features "Jerry" mediating confessions in hell between Satan, God, Jesus, Mary, and various biblical characters, complete with a raucous audience periodically chanting "Jer-ree! Jer-ree!" Reportedly, 300 to several thousand curse words are in the script (depending on who counts), and the show's Jesus is a pudgy, diaper-wearing gay man who is apparently coprophilic (among the many alleged points of blasphemy). When the BBC televised a showing, it reported 50,000 complaints, with some physical threats directed to the station's staff and their families. [BBC News, 1-10-05]

Holy shit.

Weird Habits Gone Wild

Tammy Jean Warner was charged in February with negligent homicide in the 2004 death of her husband, Michael, who suffered acute alcohol poisoning (0.47 blood-alcohol level) caused by having ingested three liters of sherry wine, allegedly provided by Tammy via enema. The Lake Jackson, Texas, widow told reporters that she was only trying to help Michael (who she said had been addicted to enemas since childhood) and that he also did enemas with coffee, "castile soap, Ivory soap. He had enema recipes. I'm sure that's the way he wanted to go out (die) because he loved his enemas." [Houston Chronicle, 2-10-05]

Exactly what I would want. Mrs. PokerShark funneling three liters of sherry up my ass. And the wife's comment, "...he loved his enemas?" I guess that and the charge of negligent homicide makes her Public Enema #1.

"There is no evidence of intelligent life on earth..." My thoughts exactly.

Oh, and one more thing--poker is always more fun when you're winning. The AC trip is still on for next weekend. Hopefully, I'll get some more time in online before that, and I won't chase any good karma away before I go pick on the tourists.

I Can't Help Myself

One of my top-10 all time movies was on last night on HBO... I have to do it!

Let me give you a little inside information about God. God likes to watch. He's a prankster. Think about it. He gives man instincts. He gives you this extraordinary gift, and then what does He do, I swear for His own amusement, his own private, cosmic gag reel, He sets the rules in opposition. It's the goof of all time. Look but don't touch. Touch, but don't taste. Taste, don't swallow. Ahaha. And while you're jumpin' from one foot to the next, what is he doing? He's laughin' His sick, fuckin' ass off. He's a tight-ass. He's a sadist. He's an absentee landlord. Worship that? Never.

Al Pacino, as John Milton, The Devil's Advocate

And from another on my list:

You become an employee of this firm, you will make your first million within three years. I'm gonna repeat that - you will make a million dollars. You want details? Fine. I drive a Ferrari, 355 Cabriolet, What's up? I have a ridiculous house in the South Fork. I have every toy you could possibly imagine. And best of all kids, I am liquid. They say money can't buy happiness? Look at the fucking smile on my face. Ear to ear, baby. Anybody who tells you money is the root of all evil doesn't fucking have any.

2004 California State Poker Champion Ben Affleck as Jim Young, Boiler Room

Thinking About You, Bud...

My friend Domenic is enduring a lot of personal tragedy. His aunt, uncle, and young cousin were killed in a car accident in Scottsdale, Arizona. The only survivor was his 8-year old cousin Michael, who is currently battling for his life. The worst part of this tragedy is that the family did not have any insurance.

An account is being set up at Bank One to help out with Michael's medical expenses, and the expense for the funerals. If anyone wishes to donate to this worthwhile cause, send any donations to:

Michael Angelo's Fund
c/o Bank One
8999 E. Shea Blvd.
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
Reference Account Number 689458016 in any correspondence...

Link to Story

Crash destroys caring Scottsdale family
By Blake Herzog, Tribune
Family members drove and flew to the 8-year-olds side as he lay in critical condition Sunday but his father, mother and brother were not among them.
Michael Angelo Cannatella is the only survivor of a onecar crash Saturday night on Loop 101 near Thomas Road. Parents Michael Cannatella, 37, and Alicia Cannatella, 35, of Scottsdale were pronounced dead at the scene. Brother Erik Scoggins, 15, Alicias son from a previous marriage and a freshman at Coronado High School, died later in the evening at Scottsdale Healthcare Osborn hospital. Catherine Addiego, the boys great-aunt, said Michael Angelo has severe brain damage, cant breathe on his own, and is on heavy pain medication at St. Josephs Hospital and Medical Center in Phoenix.
"If he lives the next 48 hours, its quite possible hell pull through," Catherine Addiego said. Michael Cannatella brought the family to Scottsdale three months ago so he could help out Addiego. It was nothing out of the ordinary for him. Eight years earlier, he took care of another aunt in Scottsdale, then returned to his native New Jersey to do the same for his mother, who was dying of cancer. "Whenever the family needed him to be there, he helped out. He was always there for his family," said Linda Shelton of Gilbert, Alicia Cannatellas sister. Michael Cannatella had picked up his wife after her second day of work at a Scottsdale Wal-Mart, and was heading to Addiegos, in her van. "They were going to come back to my house and have pizza with me," Addiego said. Instead, two Department of Public Safety officers showed up with a minister. "The minister prayed with me," she said. "He prayed for me and the family to have strength, and for Michael Angelo to pull through."
Witnesses told officials the van picked up speed before veering off the freeway and up an embankment. It rolled back down, crashed into the Thomas Road overpass, and rolled over. Department of Public Safety officer Frank Valenzuela said medical problems may have contributed to the crash, but officials must wait for autopsy results and interviews with relatives before determining what caused it. There are numerous relatives pulling for Michael Angelo. Alicia Cannatella was a Phoenix native and the youngest of 11 children, all now living in Arizona. Cousins have come out from New Jersey and are staying in a hotel near the hospital. Addiego said shes still trying to comprehend what happened. "Whenever I think about it, I start shaking uncontrollably, so I know Im not finished with it yet," she said.
The family had no insurance. An account has been set up at Bank One to help out with Michael Angelos medical costs, and expenses for the three funerals. The account number is 689458016.

Should you need more information before donating, please contact the reporter, Blake Herzog, at her email or by phone at 480-898-6816

We're pulling for the little guy, Dom. You know that if you need anything to let me know.

Public Service Announcement

The Cardroom has gone under the knife a bit, as you can see. The writing will also be undergoing a bit of a transformation. Inspired by some of the professional bloggers out there, I'm going to give you the same great poker content (basically bitching about bad beats, bad luck, and how the fish always seem to win), along with some great life content. Headlines of the day, experiences in my own personal life, and some of the fun and witty good stuff that I come across will all be fair game in the blog. I hope you all enjoy it!

Headline of the Day

Not a recommended approach, but hilarious nonetheless.

Frustrated Robber Leaves After Cashier Laughs At His Mask

Whenever the bad beats get you down, think about Pluto...

April--this is all for you...

Again, playing, while scanning the headlines, I see this:

Man Hospitalized After Being Shot By His Cat

BATES TOWNSHIP, Mich. -- Joseph Stanton is the victim of a cat attack.

He was shot by his pet cat. According to Michigan State Police, Stanton, 29, was cooking and had left a loaded 9 mm handgun on the kitchen counter. Police said one of Stanton's cats knocked the gun to floor, causing it to fire.

The man was wounded in the his lower torso and taken to an Upper Peninsula hospital.

Stanton was taken to a county hospital for treatment.

If I didn't click the link, I wouldn't have believed it either, but...



No shit.

I can't believe how much some bad cards can screw your bankroll. I'm on the downward trend. Huge. I think I may need to sacrifice some fish to please the poker gods. You know, get on their good side.



Here goes nothing...

Warning--Non-Poker Post Ahead

I was playing some O8B, scanning the headlines when I saw this:

Man Dead On Futon For Nearly 10 Years Before Family Notices

Now ain't that a bitch?

And I just got sucked out on by a guy who called a 4BB raise with 8-9-T-J rainbow. I had A2A4 double suited. No qualifying low, took a flush draw to the river, and paired a K, which gave him a straight. He promptly went all-in the next hand and lost. His reaction (just for you, April):

But I had a full house!

Oh. The. Humanity.

Now I'm Frustrated

I don't get it. I'm playing statistically ideal poker. I might make one mistake per session, but for the most part, that's it. Sometimes, I'm not even making that one mistake. Last night, I played 31 hands, picked up about 7 "premium" hands, and played them. I got to showdown once and lost my whole buy-in, just by mostly playing cards to the flop. I'm not catching a damn thing. Got dealt pocket pairs 3 times. The flop made each ot then the low pair. Got 9's, 7's, and 6's. The 6's in the blind. Flop made them low pair, I laid them down, and NOT once would I have improved my hand. Played Axs twice, K-paint suited twice. Flopped a 4-flush 4 times. Improved ONCE. Bet out, got called, another suited card on the river, the other guy had the ace. IGHN.

Frustrating.

I'm frustrated because I know I"m a better player than most, playing ideal ABC poker, knowing when to get out because I'm beat, and the like. Last night, had I played EVERY HAND to showdown, I would not have won once.

This summarizes my night--I have middle two pair, a straight and a flush draw BY THE TURN. Half the deck can help me. Guy bets, I raise, he calls, river card doesn't help. The alarm says to lay it down, so I do. I was right. He had me beat with the river. Not before, but on the river, and he called a raise to get there!

I'm playing 0.10/0.25 PL O8B now, and having some success, even though I just laid down a monster winner. Had AA55 in my hand, flopped trip aces, but with a straight draw on board (not a qualifying low), I laid it down to an all-in bet, only to see the board pair on the river, which would have given me the boat--and a $30 pot. Yes, $30 in 0.10/0.25 PL. 4 called the all-in, 2 had the straight. I was getting 5-to-1 odds to call, and I probably should have, but, that's what getting beaten like a rented mule does for your level of confidence.

Besides that, How's Life?

Well, today is tax return day for me and the Mrs. We'll see exactly how much we can put away for the wedding and honeymoon, and see what exactly we can afford to take to Atlantic City with us (heehee). In the meantime, I've come to another important date. Last Sunday was the third anniversary of my Hodgkins' Disease being in remission. I had never mentioned it before, but when I was 26, I found a lump at the base of my neck, and to make a long story short, I had it checked out, biopsied, and yadda yadda, I found out that I had cancer, A curable type, but cancer nonetheless. I had to leave work since the 6-month course of chemotherapy was too tough on me physically, and I was doing pretty bad for a while, but with the help and love of many people, I was able to pull through it. So, as each year passes by, the chance for recurrence drops significantly, and at three years, the recurrence rate is around 1%. Every 6 months now, I have to go for what I call my "oil change." I go for CT scans, a physical exam, blood work, and for a few days, I sit wondering if I'll ever have to go through that again. I've had a clean bill of health so far, and I expect that to continue. But I always still get a little nervous, always feeling and pawing at my neck, wondering what that is. Now is that time to be nervous. I go for my CT's Monday and Friday next week, and my appointment with the oncologist is at the end of the month. So, if I seem a bit testy, nervous, irritated---that's why.

The funny part is, now that I typed all that, the bad run of cards doesn't mean as much anymore. I've had a bad run of cards. A few cyber-cards, hell, I can handle that--easy.


Just remember that when you have a bad run--somebody always has it worse. People have had it a lot worse than me in life. I feel quite lucky. As much as life can make you miserable, not being here is the ultimate in misery. Like I said, I feel quite lucky--a little luckier every day.

Mrs. PokerShark

...is a money sieve. I gave her $20 a couple weeks ago to play on the 1/2 tables. Gone to a couple legit bad beats. Then, I gave her $40. Gone. Today, she took another $20 to play PL O8B. Also gone. I love her dearly, but she has to learn to not lose so often!

I really think she has horrendous luck, or a definite tendency to push with second-best hands. That ties in, since when she pushes with second-best hands, someone else ALWAYS seems to have the better hand. Case in point: She's playing O8B tonight, turns a King-high flush (K in her hand). She checks, a guy bets, she raises, he re-raises (straight also on board). You'd figure he was chasing a straight, especially at 0.10/0.25 PL. No. Of course, he has the Ax in his hand. That's bad luck. She's been sucked out on at limit, played PL hands well, and got beat by a guy with no business in the hand, the whole shebang.

Still, I lost $90 in 5 days, and felt so self-destructed I went back to playing play money. Mrs. PokerShark lost $80 in 4 sessions. Bustouts. She was up in ALL of them at one point, then just steadily bled it away. I feel bad for her, especially since she's actually a decent player. I mentioned it here, in the November 11 post...

Mrs. Pokershark finished 2nd in an Omaha 8B SNG tonight. That is really her game. If she develops more patience and concentrates, at the rate she wins at O8B, we may be reading about her some day, taking down a tourney. Because of the relative lack of O8B players, she may be the one in my family with a real shot at a bracelet...and I couldn't be prouder.

She could be a good player. With work and all, and her lack of obsession dedication, it makes it harder for her to learn as much as I have. I think we're playing in AC (Taj?) on 3/19, so a trip report may be forthcoming. I'm going down there with my eyes on the 2/4 or 3/6. I want to lay a first-class ass-whuppin' on those tables. There should be just enough tourists down there on a Saturday to get that job done.

New Design

Hope y'all like the new design. I finished it up just now, and as usual, any comments are very greatly appreciated!

Played O8B Today

All I have to say is that the low-limit O8B tables on Stars are extremely juicy. Many people who are playing are Holdem players saying, "Aw, lemme try this out..." I heard the phrase, "But I had a full house!" TWICE in less than 45 minutes. Scooping pots, especially on the low end, led to a nice overall win. It was only 1/2, but 7BB in less than 45 minutes is nothing to sneeze at.

It also does not a trend make.

Weird Stuff

I may live in the strangest weather place on Earth. Yesterday it was 72 degrees. By noon today, it will be snowing. By the time I'm out of work tonight, it will be 20 degrees, with 1-3" of snow on the ground. Yes, East Coasters (Dr. Pauly included) and my Jersey peeps (Sean, Lou, etc) rejoice. And now they're saying we may get MORE snow this weekend? Christ, my golf game is going to be flat horrendous by the time my clubs come out of mothballs...

And speaking of weird stuff...

Woman Accused of Naked Dog Wrestling

...and, of course, this gem...

From the New Jersey Council on Complusive Gambling

Guys--they're tapping the aquarium! We need to stop this madness!


Overall, things are going well in the poker game. My biggest concern continues to be playing proper positional poker (and what a tongue twister that is). I'm basically playing too loose in EP, and cold-calling too many raises in MP and LP. A little more pre-flop aggression would never hurt. I'm still getting through Small Stakes Holdem by Ed Miller, and it is a great read. His detail about hidden outs and post-flop play far exceeds any book I've read to date. Oh, and it's $6 cheaper at BN than at Amazon. Also, if you buy another book (for a total of $25), you get "Fast and Free Shipping." Ordered Tuesday, had it Thursday. Quick, and good stuff. Next purchase? Probably the Poker Tracker Guide. Heard nothing but great things about it, and kudos to Iggy and Hdouble. You guys rock. Great lessons from great teachers. Just shows what two motivated people can do.

And One Last Thing...

Phil Hellmuth Breaks Through!

Honestly, with the caliber of players there, and the level of competition, the LAST guy I had figured to win the National Heads-Up Poker Championship was the Brat. Maybe this is Phil elevating his game in response to the criticism he's taken lately:

When the final result finally came in it said that Phil Hellmuth had won the event. Well that couldn't be right I thought, Phil doesn't win tournaments anymore...
--Daniel Negreanu

Of course, Daniel was just kidding around. He noted that Phil has been involved in a lot of different poker-related things lately, and that actually playing has taken a back seat in the last couple years. It's good to see Phil back in the winners' circle. His book was actually my first intro to real Holdem Strategy, and despite the fact that, as I've grown as a player, I see the problems with the style he proposes and it's long term effectiveness, he pretty much gave me my first lesson. I'm glad to see him win one. Maybe this will be the confidence boost he needs to shoot for bigger things. Good job, Phil.

The 2500 Hand Update

After some variance and rough sessions, I've leveled the ship a little, and I'm not hemhorraging money any more. I'm not out of the bad yet this week, but I'm still up overall, and things aren't too bad.

Poker Tracker Stats at 2533 hands (1/2 Limit)
VP$IP: 20.25%
VP$SB: 29.75%
PF Raise: 5.68%
WtSD: 36.11%
W$SD: 52.63%
Amount Won: $175.00
BB/100: 3.45
TA-PF: 2.27

Positionally, my VP$IP:
Button: 17.90
1: 22.71
2: 17.30
3: 20.44
4: 20.37
5: 22.62
6: 15.97
7: 24.00
BB: 12.93
SB: 29.75

I need to work on my positional play, and I also think the smaller sample size is a factor.

Comments and questions are always welcome!!!

I Just Realized...

My last post title was...Two Serious Questions, and I didn't ask any questions. Well, now I put this to the masses:

Question Number One:

---How does a solid player maximize his winnings against a maniac when the maniac just continues to get lucky?


Question Number Two:

---What is the proper way for a TAA player like myself to play against such a maniac (LAA)?

In the meantime, I'm taking a few days off so I still have a bankroll to play with. Enjoy, and comments are absolutely welcome!